As for the rest of the bill, I know it is an unpopular view on my side, but I really don't think it is so bad. I do understand the argument that you should never reward a hostage taker or you will just encourage them. At the same time, I also at least partly agree with JV Last that the Democrats are really better off losing this fight than winning it.
Last goes further than I am willing to go. He says that the real issue at stake is not policy but power -- specifically, Trump's outrageous authoritarian power grabs. I agree. But I don't think the American people broadly understand that. Trump's power grabs are just too remote and abstract for the average low information voter to get too excited about. What does excite a low information voter is skyrocketing insurance premiums.
Last proposes that Democrats refuse to open the government unless Congress admits Washington DC as a state. Needless to say, that is not going to happen. It will just make Democrats look like outrageous extortionists and sway public opinion heavily in favor of Republicans. If DC statehood is too extreme, Last suggests some sort of measure to reign in ICE. While I am all in favor of that, I still don't think it would command the sort of public approval that would translate into support for a government shutdown. Alternately, he suggests releasing the Epstein files. That just might sway some voters, Trump supporters included, but still probably not enough to make them support the Democrats in the shutdown. But saving voters from skyrocketing insurance premiums -- now that is the sort of thing that
lines up public opinion behind the Democrats. And it did. The only problem is that Democrats can only win politically by losing. In other words, if Republicans had actually agreed to extend the subsidies, the result would have been that people's insurance premiums would not go up and no one would see what the big deal was about. Voters will never give you credit for averting a disaster if things basically stay unchanged.
So Democrats lost substantively, which means that they won politically. And we should not underestimate what they gained in the exchange.
The government is only open until January 30. That means that if the Democrats really want to, they can do a shutdown all over again.
There are exceptions for the Departments of Defense, Veteran's Affairs, and Agriculture which are funded for the fiscal year. That means if the Democrats do decide to do another government shutdown, Trump will be deprived of some of his most valuable hostages. The country will not face the prospect of the troops going unpaid, veterans being denied benefits, or people losing their food stamps. These were all factors in the Democrats' decision to back down. They will not be issues in January. Furthermore, the holidays will be over in January, so air traffic snarls will not be as bad.
Furloughed employees will receive back pay and fired employees will be reinstated. This is highly significant because the whole reason for the shutdown was, quite simply, that Donald Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought wanted the shutdown as cover for a major power grab. Vought made clear that he intended to use the shutdown to cancel widespread programs, most of them benefitting Democrats, and to engage in widespread firings of federal employees. Actual number fired: 4,000. The fact that they are being reinstated and that Trump is signing off on it effectively means that the power grab failed. Senate Democrats, by shouting and waving their arms about healthcare subsidies and keeping quiet about the power grab gave Trump space to very quietly back down on it. Of course, this victory will only be successful if people refrain from talking about it!
This just might sour Trump on government shutdowns. After initially welcoming the shutdown, Trump has become increasingly eager to end it, once it became clear that it was hurting him, and Republicans in general. Again, this shutdown appears to have been largely orchestrated by Russ Vought, who has been described as a competent version of Elon Musk. I am not sure he is quite as competent as advertised. Vought's 4000 firings included 1000 CDC employees monitoring infectious disease, from measles to Ebola. Once word got out, federal officials assured employees that this had been an error and the firings would be reversed. That sounds just like Musk. In any event, Vought's power play appears to have backfired on Trump. While it is no doubt asking too much to hope that Vought is going anywhere very soon, we can at least hope that Trump will be slower to take his advice in the future.
Trump has clearly violated Rule No. One of Smart Authoritarians, which is to save the unpopular stuff until you have consolidated complete power. Trump has been doing so many unpopular things lately that I was beginning to be concerned that might be a sign he was confident that he had fully consolidated power. I think recent events are clear evidence that he is not there yet.
The filibuster survived. I know there are people on our side like JV Last and Matthew Yglesias favor ending the filibuster. I agree on the sole issue of continuing resolutions. It should not require the President, the House of Representatives and a super majority in the Senate to keep the government open. The last thing we need in our government is the opportunity for the minority party in the Senate to make government shutdowns a routine way of doing business. Last and Yglesias favor allowing the Senate to pass legislation by a simple majority so that if the dominant party wants to pass something unpopular it will have to live with the results. Under normal circumstances, I would agree. Passing legislation by a simple majority of the Senate should not be a radical, extraordinary, shocking measure. Under normal circumstances, it should be routine.
But circumstances are not normal. We have a dangerous authoritarian in the White House and spinelessly compliant party in control of both houses of Congress. If they want to pass unpopular measures and face a public backlash, I am fine with that. What I am afraid of is procedurally authoritarian measures that are too abstract and obscure to attract public outcry, but pose a serious threat to democracy and the rule of law. This threat is not hypothetical. The One Bonkers Barbaric Bonanza originally contained provisions that would have prevented courts from enjoining government actions that was fortunately rejected by the Senate Parliamentarian as subject to filibuster. Ted Cruz has proposed a bill that would add "riot" to the list of offenses that could result in RICO prosecutions. The implications are truly alarming. For instance, the October "No Kings" protests were almost entirely peaceful -- almost. In Los Angeles after the bulk of the marchers had gone home, small crowds caused disturbances. Under Ted Cruz's law, that alone might open every group involved in the "No Kings" protests to prosecution as a criminal enterprise. The only Republicans I trust to vote against such legislation are Thomas Massie and Rand Paul. We need to keep the filibuster alive to block such things.
Winning the shutdown give Republicans a Huge Political Headache. Simply put, Republicans know that soaring insurance premiums will be wildly unpopular and have no idea what to do about it. The vote is set for December. That will give plenty of time for the public to see its premiums go up an pressure to build. And if the vote to extend subsidies fails, Democrats have made completely clear who is to blame.
Viewing Democratic tactics, a cynic might wonder whether the party, which failed to make the enhanced Obamacare credits permanent during the Biden administration, laid a trap for Republicans on an issue their rivals always failed to solve, especially under Trump.
To which I can only say, "Ya think?"
PS: In further good news House Republicans are just as outraged over Senators' giveaways to themselves as anyone else. Though not prepared to continue the shutdown over this particular provision, they plan to move to strike it in separate legislation. At last, a measure that will command overwhelming bipartisan support!
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