Trump or Vance? Pick Your Poison

 

I know some people think there is something in the Epstein files that will end Trump's Presidency.  

Color me skeptical.  If inciting an insurrection that put Congress's lives in danger wasn't enough to persuade Republicans to impeach and convict, it is hard to imagine anything that could.

Still, I will concede that the chances of Trump being impeached and convicted have gone from impossible to highly implausible, so I suppose you never know.*  And besides, Trump appears to be losing his mind, so there is always the possibility of him being sidelined for incapacity.  So it is time to give some serious thought to a JD Vance Presidency.

So, what do I make of JD Vance?  In picking a Vice President, Trump had a strong incentive to pick the worst possible candidate to make himself impeachment proof (and even 25h Amendment-proof).  I go back and forth between whether Vance is an opportunist with no principles, or a dogmatic ideologue.  Everyone I have asked says opportunist.  I can only hope so, because at least an opportunist can change his mind when it is to his advantage.  But at the same time, these two things may not be as different as they seem.  Someone who is dogmatically rigid about one principle -- in Vance's case, xenophobia -- can be extremely unprincipled and opportunistic about everything else so long as they serve the one goal.  So Vance may actually combine the worst of both traits.  He seems just as authoritarian as Trump, but a whole lot smarter and more disciplined.

Nonetheless, I want to compare the two men point by point.

Personality.  No matter how slimy Vance is, he simply is not pathological in the same way Trump is.  Vance is immoral rather than amoral.  While Trump has the ethical standards of a tapeworm -- not only none, but self-evidently absurd to even ask -- Vance at least knows what ethical standards are.  Likewise, while I do not trust Vance to respect the rule of law, I expect him at least to understand the concept.  Vance may have a grossly warped sense of the national interest, at least he knows how to distinguish the national interest from his personal interest.  And I don't expect Vance to be as personally vindictive as Trump.  Advantage: Vance.

Cult following.  Vance does not have Trump's charisma.  No one trusts him.  He simply is not going to attract the sort of cult following that Trump does.  There is a high probability that the MAGA movement will split under him.  Advantage: Vance.

The Epstein files.  Vance did not rise to national prominence until after Epstein's fall, so he cannot possibly be in the Epstein files.  He will no doubt be happy to release the files, seeing every powerful figure of either party ruined as a result as a rival eliminated.  Advantage: Vance.  I think.

Corruption.  Trump is running his entire administration as a giant bribe-fest.  I don't expect Vance to operate in those terms.  I expect Vance to operate according to principles -- specifically, principled xenophobia.  Again, I think this is advantage Vance, but I wouldn't swear to it.

Weaponization of government.  Trump's attempts to prosecute his political opponents have been notable failures.  His attempts to coerce by withholding federal funds are moderately successful.  Federal courts have frequently ruled against him, but the Administration has resisted and the Supreme Court has generally backed them up.  The results of Trump's attempts to use the IRS, RICO, surveillance, or terrorism law to target his opponents remain inconclusive.  I think that Trump's effectiveness has been somewhat stymied by his tendency to think solely in terms of personal friends and foes, rather than in terms of the Republican Party.  I expect Vance to be a lot smarter at this -- to seek to establish a Republican one-party state and target opponents more with administrative and financial penalties that outright criminal investigation.  Advantage: Trump, who is more malevolent, but too petty to really pull it off.

Corrupt pardons.  I expect both men to order subordinates to commit crimes and then pardon them.  I don't expect Vance to take outright bribes to give pardons.  So advantage Vance.

Respect for election outcomes.  Tough to tell.  Trump has made himself clear.  He considers any election that he loses to be fraudulent by definition.  He is dropping very broad hints that he will treat the midterms as fraudulent of the Democrats win.  He attempted to use force in the form of an angry mob last time and I fully expect him to be ready to resort to the Deep State this time.  Vance duly said that he did not consider the 2020 election to be fair, and that Congress and the Vice President could overturn the results.  He has remained non-committal about future elections.  While he will no doubt do all he can to rig future elections, I think he will consider staging an outright coup to be to unsubtle, although I could be wrong.  Advantage: Vance, who might accept defeat over Trump, who definitely won't.

Immigration.  If Vance is not a dogmatic ideologue on this one, he is giving a good imitation of one.  Trump occasionally wavers when he fears that his crackdown will cause economic damage.  Vance shows no such hesitations and seems determined to proceed with the program of ethnic cleansing regardless of the costs.  Thus do we see the advantage of an opportunist over an ideologue.  Advantage: Trump.

Foreign policy.  Trump's foreign policy is all about him.  He wants a Nobel Peace Prize. He favors anyone who bribes or flatters him.  This is easier for an authoritarian to do than a democratic leader, so the effect is one of favoring authoritarians, but more by accident than by design.  Vance, by contrast, has a clear ideological goal -- the destruction of liberal democracy in favor of blood and soil nationalism.  Thus Trump favors Russia over Ukraine partly because Putin is better at flattering him and has more resources to bribe him, partly because he wants the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the war and thinks the easiest way to achieve it is by coercing the weaker party into submission, and partly because he instinctively sides with strength.  Vance, by contrast, favors Russia because he wants Putin to win and impose his vision on as much of Europe as possible.  He also wants to coerce Europe into putting the most rightwing leaders into power as possible, who can be trusted to halt all immigration and undertake something like our regime of mass deportations.  Advantage: Trump.  I prefer the unprincipled opportunist over the dogmatic ideologue.

Economic policy.  Honestly, I want this to be as bad as possible, on the theory that economic hardship is the best way to undermine Trump/Vance and we can survive economic hardship, since we have many times before.  Trump's policy seems to be one of protectionism with the goals of (1) restoring a manufacturing economy, (2) circumventing Congress's power of the purse and having his own personal slush fund, and (3) extorting as many bribes as possible.  A fourth goal is probably to be able to announce all sorts of trade deals, whether they materialize or not.  The result is a flighty policy that ruins small business with uncertainty, but can be very advantageous for big business, since they can buy any favors they want.  Vance is most likely to focus on goal (1), building a manufacturing economy.  This is unlikely to succeed and will doubtless cause great hardship along the way, though it will be less corrupt than Trump's approach and also cause less uncertainty.  Advantage: Vance, I think, but I could easily be wrong.

Healthcare.  I would expect Vance to keep RFK, Jr. on, but reign him in.  By all means, feel free to talk a MAHA game, but don't interfere with actual vaccines or other useful health developments.  I would also expect Vance to understand much better than Trump when his policies were stripping people of their health insurance and to avoid such actions.  Here, Vance is the less doctrinaire of the two.  Damaging our healthcare system and stripping people of their insurance does nothing to promote his Fortress American plan and violates Rule Number One of Smart Authoritarians (don't do unpopular things unless they promote your power).  So advantage Vance if you care about people's healthcare and Trump if you want things to get as bad as possible.

Energy policy.  I expect Vance to be more rational here than Trump.  Sure, he will no doubt denounce renewables as "woke," tout fossil fuels as manly, remove environmental regulations restricting fossil fuels, and boast about our oil and gas boom.  But actually suppressing renewables will raise people's electric bills, so I expect him to drop Trump's vendetta against renewables and quietly allow them to grow.  Yes, rising energy prices will hurt the incumbent party, but given that the survival of the Earth is at stake here, I would say advantage Vance.

Succession.  Trump will undoubtedly seek to circumvent the 22nd Amendment and be President for life. On the other hand, he is 79 years old and getting less coherent all the time, so "life" will probably not be all that long.  Vance is easily young enough to be in power for 30 years if he could get away with it, but I don't think he can.  My guess is that instead he will attempt something like Mexico under the PRI -- a one-party state, with each Republican President serving two four-year terms and then stepping down for a chosen successor.  Doubtless Vance will want to manipulate things from behind the scenes, but more likely he will fail and just establish a de facto one-party system that will become increasingly corrupt and sclerotic.  This one is tough. Trump's dictatorship will inherently be shorter than Vance's one-party system, but also more arbitrary and lawless.  And thoroughly undermining the rule of law in his own lifetime is apt to cause damage that will continue long after he is gone.  So advantage Vance here, probably, but maybe not.

But there is one advantage inherent to impeachment, which some people offered as a reason to impeach GW Bush even if it meant getting Cheney as President.  It smacks down the executive and establishes legislative supremacy.  It gives JD Vance a warning that he, too, can be impeached if he steps too far out of line.  And for that reason, I suppose, advantage impeachment regardless.

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*I will also give a word of advice to any Democrats who want to impeach Trump and are looking for something that might persuade Republicans.  Go with the Qatari jet, or maybe Trump's dealings with the Saudis.  The reason is obvious.  First, these reek of a bribe, and bribery is expressly stated by the Constitution to be grounds for impeachment.  Furthermore, bribery is paired with treason, implying (though not expressly stating) that this refers in particular to foreign bribery.  Of course, Trump's foreign policy in general looks like a bribery game.  But impeachment is most likely to succeed if it caters to MAGA prejudice by focusing on bribery by a Muslim nation.  Even MAGA diehards like Laura Loomer are outraged by that.