Where Are We Now?

 

I have given what I take to be the signs to look for to see if Donald Trump's power is truly on the wane, or merely suffering a setback -- has democracy won a skirmish, or the actual war?

In escalating order of importance, I would say we should be on the lookout and see whether:

1. Media outlets bought by Trump allies are willing to criticize or oppose him;
2. Republicans in Congress splinter and Trump cannot bring them into line;
3. Attempts to target opposing organizations through taxes or RICO are thrown out, or never materialize;
4. Universities, high power law firms, and other institutions targeted by Trump start consistently defying him;
5. The Supreme Court makes a meaningful attempt to reign Trump in;
6. Democrats win control of the House and Trump cannot stop them;
7. Democrats win control of the Senate and Trump cannot stop them;
8. Growing numbers of state and local jurisdictions reject cooperation with ICE, putting more strain on the organization;
9. ICE starts losing personnel faster than it can recruit them and begins shrinking;
10. Trump supporters stop making death threats and harassment against people who he criticizes;
11. Big money interests start standing up to him.

So, looking at these eleven signs, where would I say we are now?

1. Media outlets bought by Trump allies are willing to criticize or oppose him.  Well, Paramount bought out CBS and fired Stephen Colbert but kept South Park, and let it hit Trump hard.  And new CBS editor Bari Weiss claims that she wants to create a serious center-right station and shut out the lunatics.  I guess we will see.  And certainly many people feared that Patrick Soon-Shiong, owner of the LA Times would turn it into a pro-Trump rag, but it has been absolutely unsparing in publicizing ICE outrages.  The Washington Post has a mixed record.  So I think it is best to say we are well short of a MAGA takeover of media, although it still could happen.
2. Republicans in Congress splinter and Trump cannot bring them into line.  There are certainly signs that this is happening.
3. Attempts to target opposing organizations through taxes or RICO are thrown out, or never materialize.  Way too early to tell.
4. Universities, high power law firms, and other institutions targeted by Trump start consistently defying him.  Also too early to tell.
5. The Supreme Court makes a meaningful attempt to reign Trump in. The Supreme Court appears to intend to reign in Trump's tariffs and keep him from firing members of the Federal Reserve.  These probably fit in the category of protecting Trump from himself, rather than reigning him in.
6. Democrats win control of the House and Trump cannot stop them.  The election is a year off.  We will get a better picture of just how far Trump is willing to go to rig or overturn it by next June or so.
7. Democrats win control of the Senate and Trump cannot stop them.  Ditto.
8. Growing numbers of state and local jurisdictions reject cooperation with ICE, putting more strain on the organization.  Not so far, although the election for Mayor of Miami is looking -- interesting.
9. ICE starts losing personnel faster than it can recruit them and begins shrinking.  No sign of it.
10. Trump supporters stop making death threats and harassment against people who he criticizes.  Definitely not.
11. Big money interests start standing up to him. Don't be ridiculous.

In short, I would say numbers 1 and 2 are showing some promise. Numbers 3, 4, 6 and 7 are too early to call. Numbers 5 and 8 could go either way. And numbers 9, 10, and 11 -- the real signs that Trump is losing power -- show no signs of materializing.

PS:  To anyone who thinks the mainstream media, or even media owned by Trump allies have capitulated, consider the Washington Post story about Hegseth's order to kill the survivors of a boat strike.