Why I Think the Democrats Should Cave on the Government Shutdown

 

Yes, I get that if you make any concession to Donald Trump at all it will simply whet his appetite for more.  And I realize it is a very bad idea to reward hostage taking because you encourage more of it.  And I understand the Trump and Vought are just using the shutdown as an excuse to do things they were going to do anyhow.

But I still think Democrats should extend funding for a few more weeks.   

Why?

Well, first of all, it is not as though they are extending a full year, or even a few months.  It is just a matter of weeks.

Second, I really don't understand the politics underlying the shutdown.  Yes, I get that Democrats have chosen to take their stand on the area where they have the greatest advantage over Republicans -- healthcare subsidies.  That makes some degree of sense.  Only, this approach makes no sense at all.  Democrats are essentially trying to save Republicans from their own folly by extending the subsidies before anyone feels any pain.  Look, guys, you will never get any credit at all for the disaster you stopped from happening.  People will just go on with their lives and wonder what the fuss was about.  If anything, it will make you look like Chicken Little saying that the sky is falling when the subsidies are extended and nothing happens.

Third, I get that you are trying to bring pressure to bear on Republicans.  Hot news flash: It isn't working.  But you know what will put real pressure on Republicans?  People actually seeing their premiums spike. It is my understanding that after Hakim Jeffries and Chuck Schumer talked to Trump, they came away with the impression that he had no idea what is One Big Busted Budget was about to do.  AOC has also said that when she asks Republicans why they aren't concerned about spiking premiums, they say they don't really expect it to happen.  Well, actual premium spikes should clear all that up.  Touch a hot stove and all.

Health insurance premiums also have the advantage of being the issue that is easiest for Trump to cave on.  He won't yield any ground on ICE because they are his secret police.  He won't give way on tariffs because that is how he avoids Congress's power of the purse.  And he won't back down on rescissions and impoundments because that is how he punishes jurisdictions for voting for Democrats (along with ICE blitzes, of course).  While I find Trump's anti-vax approach to be baffling, there is at least some political sense to it.  He is trying to broaden his base by creating a MAGA/MAHA alliance.  I think he will alienate more people than he wins, but apparently Trump has a different calculation.

But Trump gains nothing -- nothing whatever -- by people's health insurance premiums spiking.  It hurts his popularity while doing nothing to advance his power.

A one-year extension would create a great issue for Democrats in the midterms (assuming you believe in the midterms).  They could point to the chaos that broke out when the subsidies lapse and warn that a one-year extension means a repeat unless you elect Democrats to make the extensions permanent.

The interesting question is going to be what happens when premiums jump.  Up till now, we could be sure that the Republicans would splinter, disagreeing on what to do and the more sane members would have to cut a deal with Democrats to get an extension.

What appears to happen now is that Donald Trump decides what to do and cracks the whip and all Republicans will fall into line, no matter how much they hate it.  I have no idea what Donald Trump will decide to do when premiums spike.  I don't think Trump knows either