Alarming stories

Things are coming down to the wire.  Signs point to a blue wave.  Thus far there have been no open disruptions of the voting process.  But there are also some very alarming undercurrents.  The cover picture here is an obvious one -- National Guard troops were photographs standing around a ballot drop box in Washington, DC.  There have been other disturbing developments as well.

Federal investigation of the 2020 election continues in Fulton County, Georgia, with investigators even seeking contact information for ALL election officials and poll volunteers.  The judge denied the request, but there is no way to interpret this other than an attempt ant intimidation -- and certainly not the last.

Brendan Carr's FCC has attacked the licenses of broadcasting stations that run stories Trump objections to.  Since it is stations, not networks, that are licensed, Carr has ordered all eight ABC-owned stations to apply for license renewal ahead of the usual date -- a thing that has not happened in 50 years.  And he has given the stations 30 days to prepare applications -- a thing that usually takes months.  It is harassing the stations with pretextual investigations of equal employment law as a way of creating pressure to modify content.*

In New York, ICE officers showed up at a polling place to confront an election worker over a social media post that named an ICE officer.  The officers were from ICE's Office of Professional Responsibility, whose primary mission is investigating allegations of misconduct by ICE personnel and contractors.  Admittedly, no voters were present when the encounter took place.  The poll worker even appears to have chosen the location in the belief that she would be safer if it took place in a public area.  But this was, nonetheless, a meeting with intimidating figures in an election place during an election (the primary).

California is, thus far, the only place where Trump has called an election fraudulent during this election cycle.  Part of this is no doubt because California takes so long to count ballots, which really is a problem.  But I do not believe it is too much to suspect that another reason is California's open primary system, which makes it one of the few places where Democrats and Republicans have actually run against each other in this cycle.  Nor has Trump's hostility to California elections been limited to words.  Some 20 FBI agents have been harassing homeless people in Los Angeles with accusations that they were bribed to vote in the primary.  The fact that the Republican candidate lost out to the Democratic incumbent and a DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) challenger was no doubt a factor in the decision.

But the most alarming development has been in Ohio, where FBI agents raided a voting rights group and seized its financial records and communications equipment.  Hundreds of members have been stopped by the FBI for "interviews" that sound very much like harassment.  The same story reports that election-related prosecutions have increased by 40% since 2022.  Even in Wyoming -- Wyoming! -- there have been complaints about aggressive and harassing behavior by federal investigation observers.

Donald Trump has made clear that he not only opposes voting by mail, he opposes early voting and wants all voting to take place on a single election day.  He has not addressed the issue, perhaps because doesn't know about it, but it seems probable that he would also like to go back to the days when everyone voted in their own precinct and no other alternative was available.  Part of this is no doubt simply an old man complaining that things have changed since he was young.  But I am inclined to think there is a method to Trump's madness.

Consider:  If all voting takes place on one day, with everyone going to an assigned precinct, it would be a simple matter to send ICE to specific strategic precincts to disrupt voting.  Even allowing people to vote in any precinct disrupts such attempts -- it allows people to leave a precinct with intimidating officers and vote somewhere else.  Allowing voting to be spread out over a longer period of time makes it even easier to evade intimidation and harder for the feds to be everywhere at all times.  (Of course, when no one knows where they will show up, the fear remains).  Ballot drop boxes give people time to think through their voting at home and mark their ballots, but the offer easy sites for intimidation.  (See above).  But if everyone can fill out their ballots at home and drop them in the mail, harassment and intimidation become impossible.  

No wonder Trump hates mail-in voting so much!

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*This very much matches with my worst fears.  Abuse of the criminal justice system would be limited by an independent judiciary and trial by jury.  But regulatory actions are much less protected.  I feared abuse of the regulatory process as a means of harassing enemies.

A Trip to Fantasy Land

Hakeem Jeffires 

Let's start with some basics.  Assume Democrats win by a landslide in November and Team Trump fails to prevent them from coming to power.  There is no way they will be able to impeach and remove Trump, even if he shoots someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue.  I suppose if he bungles things so badly that his approval rating falls below, say 20% (not gonna happen), and Republican absolutely see him as an anvil weighing them down, they might be able to muster a 2/3 majority to convict.  But then JD Vance will be President.  And there is absolutely no possibility of the Senate convicting both, because that would make Hakeem Jeffries President under the Presidential Succession Act that makes the Speaker of the House next in line.  There is no way 2/3 of the Senate would agree to that.

But let us suppose that the Democrats win both houses in 2026 by a sweeping landslide and Trump is unable to throw out the results.  On January 3, 2027, Hakeem Jeffries is sworn in as Speaker of the House.  The next day a bolt of lightning appears out of a clear blue sky and strikes Trump and Vance dead, so Jeffries becomes the next President.  What would I recommend?

Well, if a Democrat wins in 2028 and Trump is somehow unable to overturn the result, my advice would be to act boldly in exposing what Trump has been doing and instituting reforms to keep it from ever happening again.  I would advise a President Jeffries to be more circumspect.  Not being actually elected to the office he would not have a mandate from the people, so he would be somewhat lacking in legitimacy.  That would have to be taken into account.  I would recommend that he halt any illegal actions by Team Trump and work to clean up the mess that he made but leave major policy initiative to Congress.  Of course, if a duly elected Congress passes a measure, it would have the mandate from the people, so I would recommend that Jeffries sign it and be forceful in implementing it.  

Within these limits, what do I recommend?  I have often said that I cannot tell if JD Vance is an opportunist with no principles or a dogmatic ideologue, but I hope that he is an unprincipled opportunist, because an unprincipled opportunist can be rational if it is in his interest.  A dogmatic ideologue never bends.  Tom Homan is an unprincipled opportunist.  He tacks with the wind.  Greg Bovino is a dogmatic ideologue.  

So, my advice to a hypothetical President Jeffries is to get rid of the ideologues in Trump's Cabinet right away but keep the opportunists until they give you a reason to fire them.  We will see how long it takes.  The absolute first thing he must do is fire Pete Hegseth.  Hegseth is the only one who might actually be able to stage a coup.  But it will take at least some time to make a plan (we are assuming lightning strike, after all), and everyone in the Pentagon hates Hegseth's guts and might refuse the unlawful order.  So, fire Hegseth right away and have him escorted off the premises.  There will be great cheers in the Pentagon.  Replace him with some apolitical and uncontroversial technocrat who can revamp the military to catch up with all the changes in modern warfare, probably the CEO of some drone contractor.  

Once Hegseth is out of the way, fire RFK, Jr. and replace him with some uncontroversial and apolitical technocrat who can clean up the mess he made.  Fire Russ Vought and replace him with someone personally loyal but also loyal to the law.  (There is no way the Director of the Office of Management and Budget can escape political controversy).  Fire Steve Miller.  There is no need to replace him.  And generally fire the White House staff who do not need Senate confirmation.  They are picked for personal loyalty to the President and do not have to administer agencies.  Give the rest the benefit of the doubt and let them prove they are unprincipled opportunists who can tack with the wind.*  Tell them that firing all of them would be too messy, but that when you give a directive, you expect them to obey or resign.  Once Hegseth is out of the way very quietly let your Attorney General and Secretary of Homeland Security know that any coup attempt will be met with military force.

With that out of the way, what about policy?  

(1)  Artificial Intelligence (AI) really is getting scary and threatening to run out of our control.  But it does no good for us to halt development if China proceeds.  It is not a subject I know anything about, but deferring to people who do: Ban the export of Nvidia chips or other important AI components to China or anyone who might let them get to China.  Then gather together the leaders of the industry and leading experts and make an agreement to halt its expansion until we have reasonable rules in to keep us in charge.  Have them start on a regulatory framework.

(2) Speaking of tech, authorize Starlink to give Ukraine targeting information inside Russia.  In exchange, bring ask Ukraine to send us military advisors to revamp our military to learn the immense changes that have happened in warfare since 2022.

These have the advantage of being something that can be done quickly and unilaterally.  They are both very important in heading off future disaster, but they will yield no immediate or visible benefits, which are very much in demand, so we need to deliver as well.

(3) Return ICE to the barracks and Border Patrol to the border.  Withdraw other Federal law enforcement from immigration and get the back to enforcing the law.  Restore Temporary Protected Status where Trump has revoked it.  Order ICE lawyers to allow bond for any arrestees who do not have a criminal record and have enough ties to their communities not to be flight risks, including people who are in the vast prison network now.

This will benefit immigrant communities and their neighbors, but the advantage to the rest of us will probably not be immediately apparently.  Work closely with the agriculture, construction, healthcare, and other industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor to make sure they get what they need to get going.  This may offer some modest economic relief.  Publicize it.

(4) Let Congress take the lead in investigating the abuses of the previous administration.  Let them work up enough outrage to give you a popular mandate to act.  Make clear to your workforce that stonewalling an investigation will be grounds for firing.  Offer pardons to anyone who cooperates.  Make clear that any pardon is conditional on cooperation.  Also make clear that pardons do not cover future charges of perjury or obstruction for anyone who turns out not to have been as cooperative as they initially appeared.  A sort of Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

(5) In order to deliver actual benefits, get out of the Iran war as quickly as possible on whatever terms we can get.  This may require some escalation first. Be smart and cautious about it.  Also level with the American people.  Let them know that ending the war may offer some immediate relief at the pump, but the effect will be modest.  Explain that it will take time to repair the drilling and refining capacity destroyed during the war, to refine oil once it starts flowing, to refill reserves, etc.  Give some realistic time frame for gas prices to fall.  Give yourself some margin for error here.  Also, reduce tariffs on imports.  Work on restoring trade relations.  Again, let the people know what sort of short term versus long term relief to expect.

(6) Push alternatives to fossil fuels -- solar, wind, nuclear, and geothermal.  Since acronyms in in the vogue, call it SWING.  Someone I read said to promote SWING as a national security, rather than environmental, matter.  But I think most Americans care only marginally more about national security than about the environment.  I would say, promote SWING as a consumerist matter.  SWING will protect you from swings in oil prices.  Don't let your pump prices be hostage to turmoil in the Middle East.  Sounds like a winning message to me.  Of course, this, too, will take time.  Push for permitting reform.

(7) Clean up the mess Trump left across the government, in the sense of getting things working again.  Be as forthright as possible about the mess you are finding and what you are doing to clean it up.  Level with the American people that it will take time.  Celebrate successes.  Blame the previous administration.  A lot.  The American people will give you at least some leeway.  But maybe not all that much.

(8) Don't run in 2028.  Prices won't return to what they were in the good old days.  People won't adjust overnight.  Anger will remain in 2028.  Step aside and let someone not associated with you take the reins.  Blame the previous administration.
 

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*What about Kash Patel?  He is no mere opportunist, given his background.  But he appears to be such a lightweight that he can't help but tack with the wind.

What if Trump Wins: My Final Thoughts

 

In short What if Trump Wins believes there are four constructive responses:

• Protect people being targeted
• Defend existing institutions
• Envision what happens after Trump
• Strategize forms of resistance

The authors offer several alternatives for each category, presumably not intended to be exhaustive.  They favor national networks of all these options, but recognize that national networks are made out of local chapters, so a local focus is also valid.  And they believe that whether our democracy survives will depend on whether the resistance groups and the non-resistance opposition can join forces when the ultimate showdown occur.  And they assume that make-or-break moment will happen before the semi-quincentennial -- July 4, 2026, a date less than a week away!

Thinking it over I am not sure there is a single make-or-break moment.  Rather, there may be times when democracy fails or lives to fight another day.  The authors

implausibly propose a make-or-break moment over attempts to shut down electric vehicles.  And they optimistically assume that this one dramatic defeat will break Trump's power.  I think that our democracy really has survived one potentially fatal moment -- when Trump considered sending the Army into Minneapolis but ultimately backed down in the face of public outrage.  That convinced Trump to stop dramatic immigration blitzes and to get ICE off the front pages, which is all fine and good, but it is not the end of our peril by any means.*

But it is the other scenario, the attempt to stay in power after the 2028 election that I can't let go of.  

It is not so far from my own fantasy on that score.  My fantasy goes something like this.  The Democrat wins the election for President in 2028.  Trump orders the military to seize the ballot boxes.  The military refuses the unlawful order.  The Pentagon effectively goes on sit-down strike.  He gives similar orders to the Department of Justice.  The DOJ also goes on sit-down strike.  Then he gives the order to ICE and Border Patrol.  We all know they won't refuse.  But they are just not numerous to subjugate a country of over 300 million.  People turn out in the streets in mass.  Democratic governors call out the National Guard to protect ballot boxes, and then to protect the state capitols as they certify the results.  Congress does not dare set foot in Washington, DC, so the Governor of Maryland offers the Maryland capitol and calls out the Maryland National Guard to protect Congress.  Neighboring states send in their National Guards, and huge crowds turn out.  Congress certifies the Democrat.  The Democrat names Secretaries of Defense, Justice, and Homeland Security and heads of ICE and Border Patrol ahead of his inauguration.  The Senate hastens to confirm.  On January 20, under the protection of the National Guard of several states and the crowds in the street, the Democrat is sworn in as President.  His heads of Defense, Justice, Homeland Security, ICE, and Border Patrol are sworn in immediately after.  The President orders ICE and Border Patrol to stand down, and orders the Army and federal police to stand up if Trump attempts to stay in power.  Trump flees.  I would not want this to happen because the necessary show of force is easy for Trump's supporters to portray as a coup, but at least it has a satisfying finality and ends in Trump's defeat.

But that is over two years away.  I agree with the authors that out democracy is unlikely to survive two more years of Trump's unchecked power.  The authors' chronology just doesn't work.  If you don't join the resistance Trump consolidates power by July 4, 2026.  How is that supposed to work?

But it can be made to work if instead of an attempt to rig the 2028 election, we see an attempt to rig the 2026 midterms.  The midterms rate a single mention in the book -- something you worry about if you decide to protect elections.  But the attempt to steal the midterms -- through gerrymandering, the SAVE Act, executive orders on mail-in ballots, and truly alarming developments.  And we are in the home stretch now, with the midterm just over four months away.  The attempt will undoubtedly intensify over the next four months.  We don't know yet whether it will succeed, much less what Trump will do if the attempt fails.  

The chronology for What if Trump Wins works much better if it is about an attempt to rig the midterms.  The resistance can approach the non-resistance early in 2026 with warnings of such a plan.  If the non-resistance declines to join forces, we could have the resistance crushed by July 4, the rigged election go through, and Trump end the last embers of independence in Congress and use the same mechanism of rigging elections to rig the 2028 elections and all elections in the future.  It seems all too plausible.

The problem is what if we defeat the attempt?  Then what?  As with ICE backing down in Minnesota, it will not be the decisive triumph of democracy.  It will just mean that democracy lives to fight another day.

Consider my scenario.  Suppose the Army and the Justice Department refuse illegal orders to stage a coup in 2026.  Trump will still have two more years to subvert them.  Even if we suppose that Congress impeaches Trump for the coup attempt, which he will certainly deserve, what difference will it make?  There is simply no way that Republicans in the Senate would vote to convict.  And even if they did, JD Vance would be next in line, and it is far from clear he would be any better.  Pete Hegseth would still control the military.  Todd Blanche would still control the federal police.  And as for Homeland Security, the less said the better.  It would just mean two more years to learn from past mistakes and get the bugs out of the system for 2028.  

As for What if Trump Wins, well, maybe they could hold onto hope that the failed coup will reduce Trump to a lame duck, even if he stays in power.  I wish I could be so optimistic.

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*I expect immigration to be back on the front pages soon if ICE seriously attempts mass deportations of Haitians.

What if Trump Wins: Come Together, Right Now, Over Me

So, we come to the final confrontation.  Whether democracy stands or falls depends on whether the resistance and non-resistance wings of the opposition join forces.  I previously said that the authors envisioned two alternate showdowns -- Trump trying to shut down an electric vehicle plant and Trump defying the 22nd Amendment for a third term.

I was actually wrong about that the authors envision three alternative pathways -- one for each resistance group.  While two of the final showdowns are over Trump seeking to defy the 22nd Amendment, they turn out somewhat differently, for reasons I do not fully understand.  

One other note for what it is worth.  In all cases from the perspective of a non-resistance group, you hear from a "longstanding volunteer," presumably in your group.*  They have been a "steady volunteer," but most of their work has been with the resistance.  So clearly the authors do not see these groups as mutually exclusive, but merely as matters of emphasis.

Tax resistance and the electric vehicle plant

For the tax resistance, the authors envision the final confrontation occurring when Trump seek to shut down the electric vehicle industry and force all car manufacturers to stick to internal combustion engines.**  Why the tax resistance?  The authors envision the auto workers union plans to occupy the factories and keep producing electric vehicles in defiance of Trump.  Wouldn't the strike committee make a more logical choice?  Apparently the authors had other uses for the strike committee (as we shall see) and so gave the tax resistance this job more or less by default.  The tax resistance is joined by mutual aid societies, which makes sense, since someone will have to provide financial assistance to the auto workers during their strike.  Also joining are citizen scientists who assist the EPA.  This also makes sense, since environmental scientists will presumably understand the importance of preserving the EV industry.  Finally veteran organizations and military families.  This also makes sense, since the scenario envisions Trump calling in the military to disburse the strikers, so the resistance will need people with ties to the military to keep them from turning against US citizens.  

Risk of military confrontation run high as more and more people turn out to support the auto workers.  Auto workers refuse to be provoked into violence and the military refuses to move against peaceful protesters.  Trump tries to send in the Proud Boys instead, but the military protects the auto workers.  Trump ends up looking weak and the Republican power structure (including his own Justice Department) abandons him.  He limps out to the end of his term a lame duck, his power gone.  In this the authors are influenced by the work of Timur Kuran.  Kuran looks at the French, Russian and Iranian revolutions -- all largely the work of street protests and mobs.  In all cases, the regime in power seemed solid and entrenched -- and then it wasn't.  He suggests that there may be secret, latent resentment of the status quo that goes unexpressed because no one sees anyone else opposing the regime and therefore no one dares to act.  But even a very small indication that the regime is not invulnerable may set off chain reaction.  Except that this appears to apply to a certain kind of regime -- one that is repressive enough to let popular opposition simmer a long time before it breaks into revolt, but not repressive enough to crush the revolt.  It is far from clear whether the US under Trump meets with that description.

Look, I really would prefer to see the Trump regime weakened enough stop being a threat and lose in the normal course of electoral politics than an all-out confrontation over whether elections are still binding.  But I am not hopeful it will turn out that way.  The closest we have come to this sort of scenario has been ICE surges and popular resistance -- most dramatically in Minneapolis, but in Los Angeles and Chicago as well.  In Los Angeles there were actual riots and Trump mobilized the National Guard.  Mercifully, both sides quietly backed away.  In Chicago, he was on the verge of calling up the National Guard but was blocked by the courts.  In Minneapolis, Trump was seriously considering sending in the army, but ultimately backed down in the face of public outrage.  All of this shows that Trump is far from complete consolidation of power.  And it has persuaded him to stop doing ICE blitzes, which is all to the good.  But it has not made him a lame duck.  The latest candidate for turning Trump into a lame duck is his failed war in Iran.  Losing a war has been the downfall of many a dictator.  But, again, it has not happened thus far.

The strike committee and the 22nd Amendment

It seems more likely -- very likely -- that the showdown will be over Trump trying to defy the Constitution and seek a third term.  Protests erupt across the country, Republican governors send in the National Guard, and Texas and Florida even attempt to cancel the election. The authors have the strike committee resist by calling a general strike.  And I will admit, a general strike seems like an appropriate response to so extreme and action, so maybe it does make sense to have the strike committee take the lead here, rather than in the electric vehicle scenario.  The strike committee is joined by fund raisers for non-profits, which makes sense because, again, strikers will need financial support to remain on strike.  Also joining are people providing cultural grounding for the movement.  The authors see them as important for getting disparate groups to work together.  The underground railroad also joins.  Why the underground railroad?  The authors suggest, to smuggle in whistle blowers.  But whistle blowers have their place in all these showdowns.  I am inclined to think that this is like the tax resistance -- they had to fit in somewhere and this was an open slot.  

I do sort of like the detail that non-resistance members were aware of the one-minute strikes but never took part, even though the effort would be minimal.  It drives home the point that you don't have to do everything -- at least until the final showdown.  I suggested that the constitutional convention differs from the other groups in that everyone else can take three days out to attend.  But it is even easier to stop work for one minute, yet not everyone does.

The authors offer many scenarios, all involving strikes, economic upheaval, and violence, but all ending with the same outcome.  Trump loses the election, incumbents are swept from office in record numbers, and the proposed constitutional reforms are enacted.  The authors end in a triumphant note:

Your movement didn’t just win elections — they’ve won pledges to abide by the outcomes of the deep democracy-modeled Constitutional Convention. Its sensible recommendations come from now over 2,000 cities. The federal reforms happen first. New laws affirm that money is not speech and put an end to gerrymandering. The bill for term limits for all federal leaders barely passes — only passing with a controversial exemption for current senators and house members. There is an end to right-to-work legislation and support for card check neutrality. The changes take place, buoyed by a movement that keeps up regular protests and occasional strikes. You continue your work, aware of much more to do. And you feel proud of your role in all of it.

This appears to be the authors' favorite scenario.  It is achieved by strikes, with much economic upheaval and hardship, and with violence from rightwing militias.  But it is rewarded with a sweeping win and implementation of the measures the authors favor.  

They seem less happy about the third scenario.

The Paperclip Movement and President Eric Trump

This version actually focuses less on seeking a third term than on running Eric (Don Junior having all to obviously flamed out) and trying to rig the election.  Since the Paperclip Movement is apparently an organization of civil servants pledged to refuse illegal orders, it makes sense they would lead the opposition to an attempt to rig the election.  The organization of election workers is an obvious ally.  After all, the Paperclip movement is just asking local officials to join in their pledge to refuse illegal orders.  The authors have also foreshadowed that the Paperclip Movement will ally with the constitutional convention.  “You know those government workers wearing paperclips? That movement is already using our language and guidance for their Constitutional Oath.”  So, unsurprisingly, the Paperclip Movement seeks alliance with the constitutional convention as well.  They say they want "all of your participants — city workers, police, and others" to take a pledge not to obey illegal orders on the election.  I am not quite sure I understand that.  I know that election workers are public employees, usually at the county level.  Is the constitutional convention also supposed to consist of municipal employees?  Nothing else in the book suggests that.

The authors have another problem as well.  They set out four categories of activists -- protecting individuals, defending institutions, envisioning what comes after Trump, and resistance.  Three out of those four categories have three sub-categories.  But envisioning what comes after has only two.  Otherwise each resistance group could form an alliance with one member of each other category, for four in each scenario.  But instead there are only 11 groups instead of twelve, so someone has to get the short end of the stick.  It turns out to be the Paperclip Movement.  So, Trump pushes voting restrictions (true) and sends the National Guard to polling places (plausible).  Election workers slow-walk the new restrictions.  Foreign observers observe.  The broader public protects.  Or else the governors of Texas and Florida attempt to cancel the election.  Election workers hold the election anyhow, and governors eventually back down.  (That one is more of a stretch).  Either way the election is much like 2020.  It comes down to a few swing states that are close.  Trump tries to stop counting while his son is still ahead.  It takes a few weeks, but Trump narrowly loses and, once again, attempts to overturn the result.  If the public remains passive, the army ends up letting Trump stay rather than stage a coup against him.  But if large crowds turn out to "help Trump pack his bags," it is still a very close call, but Trump ends up leaving.  The new President takes over a "battered, bruised" nation.  The coup has been averted "but just by the skin of its teeth."  

In short, Trump does not go quietly as he does in the electric vehicle scenario.  There is none of the triumphalism of the strike committee scenario.  US democracy narrowly prevails, but remains precarious.  So, why do the authors show so much less enthusiasm for this scenario than the alternative?  Obviously, I don't know.  But my guess is that this approach relies too much on government insiders (Paperclip Movement civil servants, election officials, and apparently a variety of municipal officials) for the authors' comfort.  Maybe they just like a more "outsider" approach.

I will wrap this series up with a few final thoughts.

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*Not quite.  The cultural grounding group is somewhat different. 
**That seemed far-fetched to me.  It still seems like a stretch in light of Trump's ultimate alliance with Elon Musk.  But apparently he has done a good, though more subtle, job of undermining the electric vehicle industry and has an outright vendetta with wind power, so maybe.

What if Trump Wins: Strategize Acts of Disobedience

 

Category	Activity
Protect people being targeted	Mutual aid society Fundraising for nonprofits Underground railroad
Defend existing institutions	Outreach to veterans/families/military Citizen scientist to assist EPA Find grants to strengthen elections
Envision what comes after Trump	Cultural/psychological grounding Constitutional convention
Resistance	Paperclip movement among civil servants Strikes Tax resistance

Finally, What if Trump Wins encourages strategizing resistance -- subject to some qualifications.  One is that you should refrain from violence or the threat of violence.  The other (as discussed before) is that sooner or later the showdown will probably come.  The authors believe that democracy will survive or not survive depending on whether the resistance and non-resistance wings of the opposition are able to join forces.  The authors suggest a class in civil disobedience and offer their basic premise -- power flows from the bottom up.  No ruler can do it on his own.  The ground level bureaucracy does the real work of governing.  Target the pillars of support and you can bring down the would-be autocrat.  The authors make three suggestions (presumably not intended to be exhaustive):  symbol of resistance, strike committee, or tax resistance.

The Paperclip Movement.

This is the least clear of the options being offered.  It begins by proposing that you create a widespread symbol of resistance -- a paperclip.  Apparently, that was used as a symbol of resistance in Nazi-occupied Denmark, and it seems to fit with Trump's dismissal of bureaucrats as "paper pushers."  Anyone can wear a paperclip.  The authors imagine the idea going viral.  Paperclips appear in people's social media feeds.  Popular songs are written about paperclips.  Flag-colored paperclips and rainbow paperclips become popular.  People wear paperclips on CNN.  

Once again, notice the assumption here.  The authors assume that people can display the symbol of resistance openly and without fear.  And, thus far at least, the assumption seems accurate.  We have any number of symbols of resistance.  The "No Kings" logo. A whistle to blow and warn people about ICE.  The Portland Frog.  Cute inflatable animal costumes.  There are plenty of symbols of resistance out there.

But imperceptibly, the authors start making clear that the Paperclip Movement is more than just people wearing paperclips as a symbol of resistance.  The authors appear to be thinking of a movement in the civil service roughly equivalent to their proposed military movement -- an organization of civil servants pledged to refuse to obey any unlawful orders.  The authors are unclear on any number of things.  Is the Paperclip movement limited to the federal government, or can state and local officials joint as well?  What is the role of private citizens in the movement?  Are they limited to wearing paperclips in solidarity, or do private citizens join in meetings, organization, etc?  None of that is spelled out, and I find the jump from symbol to organization to be disconcerting.

Be that as it may, although there are many symbols of resistance, nothing like the Paperclip Movement has emerged among civil servants.  Civil servants are exercising a different kind of resistance.  They are quitting.  The Department of Justice civil rights division and Minneapolis office have been hit particularly hard.  And these resignations have answered the paradox that has so long plagued civil servants when a dictator begins subverting the civil service -- stay, hope to mitigate the worst measures, and risk becoming complicit; or resign, and allow the subversion to proceed unchecked.  The answer is that if only a handful of civil servants resign, they merely smooth the way for the subversion.  But if resignations become widespread enough, they can seriously undermine the would-be dictator.  And, it appears, bring a lot of talent to the opposition.  That does undermine one of the would-be dictator's pillars of support, though perhaps not in the manner the authors had in mind.

Strike committee.

The authors envision beginning with a one-minute strike in late 2025, with plans for a 15-minute strike two months later.  I am not sure anyone would even notice a one-minute strike, but who knows.  The authors see strikes as more muscular and effective than protests.  But so far they just haven't happened.  During the height of Operation Metro Surge, Minneapolis had a one-day general strike.  But it was not able to duplicate the effort a second time.  In the meantime, Minneapolis did sustain repeated, massive marches and protests.  There is simply no sign that the country is ready to, or capable of, a widespread general strike.  Instead, Trump opponents are focusing on the supposed 3.5 percent rule -- the idea that bringing 3.5% of the population onto the streets will make things change.  (It seems to have worked in Minneapolis).

Tax resistance.

The authors propose a widespread refusal to pay taxes so long as Trump is in power.  Needless to say, this is illegal.  It also has not happened.  In fact, ironically, there has actually been some muttering on the right about refusing to pay taxes because of all the fraud purportedly being found.  

In short, resistance thus far has consisted of two main things.  One is protests, in hopes of bringing down the regime through the 3.5 percent rule.  The other is resistance to ICE, usually in the form of tracking, warning, filming, protesting, and some civil disobedience in the form of attempting to block ICE vehicles.

Government response to resistance.

If you pick a non-resistance option, the authors give the option of scaling up or not.  Either way, they anticipate that you will be able to keep on without interference from the state.  The underground railroad has to maintain operational security, obviously.  The authors recommend that anyone protecting institutions practice digital security if they want to scale up.  But none of these activities in the author's scenarios meet with an actual crackdown by government.  And all are operating peacefully and in the open by the semi-quincentennial when the resistance had been beaten and arrested.  (What becomes of the non-resistance opposition after the crackdown is not discussed).

For the resistance, the question is not whether to scale up or not, but how Trump will respond.  The authors envision that he might simply ignore the resistance or limit himself to angry tweets.  But he might crack down, either by indicting the leaders, or by having the IRS seize the organization's assets.  In other words, the authors see it as possible that even the resistance wing of the opposition may be able to operate in the open without danger for a significant time.  

They anticipate (reasonably) that any indictment will be error-ridden and "very flimsy" even in the case of the tax resistance, which is clearly illegal.  They further assume that only a handful of leaders will be arrested, and that the government will back down when large numbers of rank-and-file members demand to be arrested as well.  "Liberal pundits" (note the assumption that an independent media continues) say that this is merely an attempt to distract the public from a "shaky" economy, whiplashed by his changing policies and a sinking approval rating.  That certainly seems plausible as well.  In fact, the economy has been shaky, though far from disastrous, as a result of erratic policies, Trump's approval ratings have fallen, and independent media have continued to operate.  What is notable is that the economy and Trump's approval ratings are mentioned only in the context of the resistance wing, even though it was highly foreseeable that (1) these two things would rise and fall together and (2) Trump's presidency will probably rise or fall based on these two things.  It is also notable that so far Trump has attempted to prosecute both (a few) individual opponents and (a few) opposition organizations.  Thus far, the independent judiciary has severely limited such prosecutions.

The authors seem to regard use of the IRS as more formidable that abuse of the criminal justice system.  Certainly that was my fear because there were fewer procedural safeguards.  The authors envision the IRS freezing resistance organizations' assets and temporarily immobilizing their website, database, and organizational infrastructure.  The tax resistance, being clearly illegal gets hit hardest, with the IRS seizing its computers, files, and even coffee pots.  They envision the organizational infrastructure being much harder to salvage with the tax resistance than the other organizations.  In all cases, the propose that the IRS attempts to move "quietly," but a whistle blower alerts the organization, which alerts the New York Times, which creates a major spectacle, so again the authors assume an independent media.  

But none of these change the ultimate outcome.  The single theme underlying every such narrative is that details may differ, but that is not so important.  What is really important is whether the resistance wing of the opposition joins forces with the wider public.  If this fails, the resistance is crushed and Trump consolidates power.  And here the authors are oddly specific in their timeline.  They envision a one-minute strike in late 2025, with a 15-minute strike planned in two months.  If the strike committee does not join forces with the broader public, the authors imagine a specific date -- February 21 (presumably 2026) when the larger strike fails. Crackdown follows.  As for the tax resistance, they envision its growth sputtering out after tax day -- April 15 (again, presumably 2026), which seems like a reasonable assumption.  No specific date for the Paperclip Movement.  But invariably the authors assume that if the resistance and non-resistance do not join forces, the resistance will be crushed and Trump will consolidate power by the semi-quincentennial -- July 4, 2026.  And that is just over a week away!  

Well, I don't think the final showdown has come about yet.  But I do think that the next four to six months will determine whether democracy is defeated, or whether it lives to fight another day.  I thought the authors had two alternative scenarios as to what the final showdown would be.  Looking it over in more depth, I was wrong.  They have three.  Coming up next.

What if Trump Wins: Defending Existing Institutions

 

Category	Activity
Protect people being targeted	Mutual aid society Fundraising for nonprofits Underground railroad
Defend existing institutions	Outreach to veterans/families/military Citizen scientist to assist EPA Find grants to strengthen elections
Envision what comes after Trump	Cultural/psychological grounding Constitutional convention
Resistance	Paperclip movement among civil servants Strikes Tax resistance

Defend existing institutions:

The introduction on defending institutions is really quite similar to the introduction on protecting people being targeted.  Instead of immigration raids, cut to healthcare spending, and rising hate crimes, this section has funds pulled from public schools, far right judges appointed, threats to independent media, and purges of the federal workforce.  Some of these targets, like the federal workforce, are governmental.  Some, like judges and schools, are also governmental, but outside normal executive function.  And some, like independent media, are clearly non-governmental.  It all sounds accurate enough, to say nothing of attacks on targets the authors never even thought of, such as elite law firms, universities, and tech companies.  While the damage to the vulnerable is less immediate and obvious than immigration raids and healthcare cuts, the damage to the social fabric is absolutely real and, over the longer run, highly damaging and disarm the institutions that might reign Trump in.   

But what can we do about it?  In the real world, most of the defense of institutions is taking place in the courts, out of reach of the general public.*  The authors make three suggestions -- organize veterans and their families, supplement federal regulators with scientific testing, and protect elections.  As mentioned before, I was surprised at the focus on governmental institutions -- the Deep State if you will -- when it seemed to me that Trump poses a threat to all institutions, governmental or not.  And the vast flourishing of non-governmental organizations is what makes America truly great.  But thinking it over more, I do believe that maintaining the independence of the "deep state" is vital to preserving the rule of law.  So by all means, let us sign up to preserve it.

Organize veteran familes

The authors postulate that the military is being pulled two ways -- between higher officers who are old-style institutionalists, but also bound to obey orders, and the rank-and-file who are more pro-Trump.  They have officers "slow walk" plans to leave NATO, generals fired and even a first lieutenant (!) named Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  We haven't got to the first lieutenant yet, but Pete Hegseth is clearly purging the top ranks and thwarting promotion of anyone who is not white and male.  We also have the military committing war crimes on the high seas and in bombing Iran.  

In any event, the authors propose that you talk to veterans and their organizations and families about the need for the military to stay out of partisan politics and the fearful danger that they might be called on to fire on US citizens.  They imagine a lot of quiet persuasion taking place outside the public eye, like talking to a colonel's wife about how to keep her husband from getting too Trumpy.  And non-commissioned officers expose rightwing extremists in their ranks planning to use a rightwing militia attack on Black business as cover "for more extreme efforts," whatever that means.  (Once again those rightwing terrorists make an appearance).

In protecting people being targeted, the authors offer the choice of staying small, nimble, and local; scaling up on a local level; or going national.  For institution, they offer only the options of staying "small, nimble, and quiet" or becoming larger and open.  In the military instance, there are excellent reasons to stay quiet.  "Being quiet allows you to have some intimate conversations with people inside the military you might miss if you are more open."  A very realistic concern in this case.  Becoming more open appears to mean going onto social media and attracting volunteers.  It calls for taking classes in digital security to avoid doxing.  But the outreach remains private.  The only real difference the authors propose is that if you go public, you can refer the colonel's wife to a network instead of just giving her personal suggestions.  The basic need to stay quiet remains.

I am assuming this proposal is based on calls for retired generals to denounce inappropriate or unlawful acts by Trump.  While there have been occasional reminders that soldiers do not have to obey unlawful behavior, retired military officers have been disturbingly quiet.

Citizen scientists:

Team Trump is both relaxing regulatory standards and firing so many regulators as to obstruct enforcement of even the most relaxed standards.  He is particularly protective of pollution from coal.  All of this is spot-on, of course, and highly predictable.  Citizen scientists can do their own environmental testing to supplement an overtaxed EPA and give it guidance in setting priorities.  As in other cases, the authors try to be realistic by starting small -- testing proves serious hazards from a coal fired plant, and it is made to pay a small fine.  As work begins to scale up, climate-change-caused fires put in another appearance.  This time you are able to do real-time tracking that is vital to the public's health and safety.

The authors treat the decision whether to stay small or scale up similarly to the military -- staying small allows you to have intimate conversations you might otherwise miss; going public requires digital security to avoid doxing.  But really, this work seems a lot less dangerous than outreach to the military.  I suppose some EPA employees might face retaliation if word gets out that they are receiving input from citizen scientists. But this just isn't subversive in the same way that military outreach is.  The decision whether to stay local or scale up here is treated similarly to how it is treated with mutual aid.  Stay local and you can persuade your town to rewrite its ordinances to block expansion of some factories and plant more trees.  Scale up, and you can attract participants across the country and get funding and interns from a university.  

Incidentally, this is one of the very few cases other than the elections section that mentions local government.  In the emergency fundraising section, local government puts in a brief appearance for being too sluggish in offering loans to people whose businesses burned down.  In the section on news stories, state and local government step up to enforce anti-discrimination laws when the federal government refuses.  And there are sanctuary jurisdictions and states that mobilize the National Guard against immigration.  But local government only really comes into focus into the elections section, and necessarily so.  US elections are administered at the county level.

Protect elections:

This is obviously very important.  Indeed, the survival of democracy rests upon it.  If the book's 11 options were my real-life choices, this is the one I would choose.  Election workers have faced scrutiny, pressure, and even threats on Trump's say-so.  The authors descend into specifics here.  They recommend a Protect Our Elections report and threats to election workers in Washoe County, Nevada.  One major problem is a lack of funding.  Public funding has been cut and some states have banned private funding.  (Certainly, the senior attorney at my office views private funding with extreme suspicion and makes cracks about "Zucherbucks.").  So, you search for grant money, which apparently is out there, though wholly uncoordinated.  How that is reconciled with a ban on private funding is not addressed.  But, once again, the story starts small as you obtain a $500 grant for the local office.  You go to work on finding what grants are out there and assembling the information into digestible form.  Thanks to the grants, election infrastructure strengthens.  Workers can improve trust by explaining the election infrastructure safety, security, and responsiveness ahead of the election instead of after.  Climate-change-caused fires make another appearance, this time destroying mail-in ballots, but you are able to replace them quickly.  

Scaling up once again requires digital security but attracts more volunteers.  I was at first dismissive of the need for security.  This is not a secretive, semi-legal campaign of potential subversion like the military outreach.  It is wholly legal and appropriate.  That was uncommonly naive of me.  In light of recent cries of election fraud and FBI raids on voting rights groups, this is actually quite potentially dangerous work.  Unlike other cases, the authors appear to see scaling up as clearly the better course.  Staying local means passing around a spreadsheet of grant opportunities and makes for a modest strengthening of the local infrastructure.  Going national means setting up a nationally known clearinghouse of grant opportunities and a website where applicants can pre-qualify.  (This recommendation comes specifically from the Protect Our Elections report).  This differs from, say mutual aid or environmental activism in that it deals entirely in knowledge, which can be frictionlessly spread nationwide.  However, non-presidential elections are mentioned only in passing (mention that the midterms are coming up, ballots having to be replaced) and says nothing whatever about the outcome of any non-presidential election.

I will make a few more comments about the helping and protecting sections.  The protect people sections all begin with immigration and move on.  None of the defend institutions actions discuss immigrants at all.  Times rightwing militias burning buildings come up -- four, in all three protect people scenarios and the military outreach scenario.  Number of times climate-change-related fires come up -- also four, in the mutual aid society, joint emergency fundraising, environmental protection, and elections sections.  No militia attacks on voters, though, perhaps surprisingly.

Now on to envisioning the future and offering resistance.  Rightwing militias and climate-change-related fires will drop out.

_____________________________________________________
*The authors recognize as much, having Trump's attempts to replace 50,000 to 100,000 federal employees delayed by the courts but eventually go through.  

Despair is Dangerous. So is Complacency

 

Something feels different.  It feels as if Donald Trump's attempt to undermine US democracy are failing and his presidency is on the downslope.  People who were deeply pessimistic before are looking up.

Of course, throughout August, September, and October, it felt as if we were reaching an irreversible tipping point toward dictatorship and nothing could stop it.  

All of which just goes to show that feelings are not facts.  When things look bad, it is good to remember that hope is no guarantee of success, but despair means giving up and guarantees defeat.  But when things start to look up, it is a mistake to declare mission accomplished too early because that, too, means giving up the fight and letting Team Trump make a comeback.

Signs Trump's power is waning

Certainly there are signs that Trump's power may be waning.

Most obviously, the November elections went poorly for Republicans, and Trump has accepted the outcome as valid.

Donald Trump and Russ Vought encouraged the government shutdown, intending a power grab.  They were not notably successful at it, and took a significant political blow that maybe, just maybe, may discourage them from seeking any future government shutdowns.

Congressional Republicans openly revolted over the Epstein files.  

Trump has proposed a healthcare plan that would replace subsidies to buy insurance with direct payments.  Maybe Republicans will all line up behind it when he cracks the whip, but somehow it seems unlikely.

Senate Republicans are refusing to end the filibuster or blue slips (allowing Senators a de facto veto on judicial appointments in their own states).

Indiana Republicans are refusing to redistrict.

Trump is starting to withdraw some tariffs to lower prices.

Elite universities are rejecting his favored funding-for-control proposals.

His proposed 50-year mortgage went over like a lead balloon.

He appears to be quietly backing away from plans to deploy the National Guard in Portland and Chicago.

Greg Bovino and his Border Patrol thugs, after vowing to stay in Chicago till their mass deportations were complete, are moving on, mission not accomplished.

The politically motivated prosecution of James Comey is facing dismissal by the judge and possible disciplinary sanctions.

And the Adam Schiff investigation is facing an actual DOJ investigation!

All of which clearly shows that (1) Trump has not consolidated complete power yet and (2) he has experienced a setback in the attempt.  But let there be no mistake.  His attempt is far from over, and he will be back.

But he has plenty of cards left

There is plenty of room for foot-dragging or selective release on the Epstein files, as well as the prospect of the whole thing becoming an all-out moral panic.  And if documents addressing Trump ever do come, the whole thing will probably be anticlimactic.  (See Russiagate).

His popularity will no doubt improve now that the shutdown is over.  Withdrawing the tariffs may boost the economy and further improve his standing.

The Supreme Court may grant him unbridled discretion in deploying the National Guard.

ICE is receiving a massive increase in personnel, budget, surveillance capability, and thuggishness.

Federal money remains a powerful tool of coercion.

Trump allies are buying up ever-growing shares of media.

RICO and tax investigations of opposing organizations are just beginning.

But scariest of all is the upcoming midterm election.  Attempts are already well underway to rig the midterms through gerrymanders, control of media companies, and various voter suppression laws.  A large enough landslide can overcome these obstacles, but that leaves scarier options -- ICE raids on Democratic gatherings, or on voting places, pressure on Republican election officials to change results, seizing ballot boxes to "recount" and look for "fraud," and who knows what else.  

How to know if we have won

So, what would I take as more than just a setback, but an actual sign that Trump has lost and democracy has won?

I list the following in roughly escalating order of significance.

If media outlets bought by Trump allies remain critical of him.

If Republicans in Congress splinter and Trump cannot bring them into line.

If attempts to target opposing organizations through taxes or RICO are thrown out, or never materialize.

If universities, high power law firms, and other institutions targeted by Trump start consistently defying him.

If the Supreme Court makes a meaningful attempt to reign Trump in.

If Democrats win control of the House and Trump cannot stop them.

If Democrats win control of the Senate and Trump cannot stop them.

If growing numbers of state and local jurisdictions reject cooperation with ICE, putting more strain on the organization.

If ICE starts losing personnel faster than it can recruit them and begins shrinking.

It Trump supporters stop making death threats and harassment against people who he criticizes.

And finally, we will know Trump has truly and decisively failed if big money interests start standing up to him.