Of course, throughout August, September, and October, it felt as if we were reaching an irreversible tipping point toward dictatorship and nothing could stop it.
All of which just goes to show that feelings are not facts. When things look bad, it is good to remember that hope is no guarantee of success, but despair means giving up and guarantees defeat. But when things start to look up, it is a mistake to declare mission accomplished too early because that, too, means giving up the fight and letting Team Trump make a comeback.
Signs Trump's power is waning
Certainly there are signs that Trump's power may be waning.
Most obviously, the November elections went poorly for Republicans, and Trump has accepted the outcome as valid.
Donald Trump and Russ Vought encouraged the government shutdown, intending a power grab. They were not notably successful at it, and took a significant political blow that maybe, just maybe, may discourage them from seeking any future government shutdowns.
Congressional Republicans openly revolted over the Epstein files.
Trump has proposed a healthcare plan that would replace subsidies to buy insurance with direct payments. Maybe Republicans will all line up behind it when he cracks the whip, but somehow it seems unlikely.
Senate Republicans are refusing to end the filibuster or blue slips (allowing Senators a de facto veto on judicial appointments in their own states).
Indiana Republicans are refusing to redistrict.
Trump is starting to withdraw some tariffs to lower prices.
Elite universities are rejecting his favored funding-for-control proposals.
His proposed 50-year mortgage went over like a lead balloon.
He appears to be quietly backing away from plans to deploy the National Guard in Portland and Chicago.
Greg Bovino and his Border Patrol thugs, after vowing to stay in Chicago till their mass deportations were complete, are moving on, mission not accomplished.
The politically motivated prosecution of James Comey is facing dismissal by the judge and possible disciplinary sanctions.
And the Adam Schiff investigation is facing an actual DOJ investigation!
All of which clearly shows that (1) Trump has not consolidated complete power yet and (2) he has experienced a setback in the attempt. But let there be no mistake. His attempt is far from over, and he will be back.
But he has plenty of cards left
There is plenty of room for foot-dragging or selective release on the Epstein files, as well as the prospect of the whole thing becoming an all-out moral panic. And if documents addressing Trump ever do come, the whole thing will probably be anticlimactic. (See Russiagate).
His popularity will no doubt improve now that the shutdown is over. Withdrawing the tariffs may boost the economy and further improve his standing.
The Supreme Court may grant him unbridled discretion in deploying the National Guard.
ICE is receiving a massive increase in personnel, budget, surveillance capability, and thuggishness.
Federal money remains a powerful tool of coercion.
Trump allies are buying up ever-growing shares of media.
RICO and tax investigations of opposing organizations are just beginning.
But scariest of all is the upcoming midterm election. Attempts are already well underway to rig the midterms through gerrymanders, control of media companies, and various voter suppression laws. A large enough landslide can overcome these obstacles, but that leaves scarier options -- ICE raids on Democratic gatherings, or on voting places, pressure on Republican election officials to change results, seizing ballot boxes to "recount" and look for "fraud," and who knows what else.
How to know if we have won
So, what would I take as more than just a setback, but an actual sign that Trump has lost and democracy has won?
I list the following in roughly escalating order of significance.
If media outlets bought by Trump allies remain critical of him.
If Republicans in Congress splinter and Trump cannot bring them into line.
If attempts to target opposing organizations through taxes or RICO are thrown out, or never materialize.
If universities, high power law firms, and other institutions targeted by Trump start consistently defying him.
If the Supreme Court makes a meaningful attempt to reign Trump in.
If Democrats win control of the House and Trump cannot stop them.
If Democrats win control of the Senate and Trump cannot stop them.
If growing numbers of state and local jurisdictions reject cooperation with ICE, putting more strain on the organization.
If ICE starts losing personnel faster than it can recruit them and begins shrinking.
It Trump supporters stop making death threats and harassment against people who he criticizes.
And finally, we will know Trump has truly and decisively failed if big money interests start standing up to him.
No comments:
Post a Comment