The Virginia Election

I know it is a bit late to be commenting on the Virginia election, but I was approaching it with a good deal of trepidation.  Polls showed Republican Ed Gillespie catching up and within striking distance of Democrat Ralph Northam once he started serious anti-immigrant demagoguery.  Conventional wisdom held that the momentum was with him and he was probably going to win.  Another poll showed that, although polls of the general population showed a preference for Democrats in the upcoming 2018 election, once it was narrowed down to likely voters, the preference was dead even. 

I felt despairing.  It was a horrible thought.  What if Steven Bannon was winning?  What if he had achieved a successful coalition?  Bannonites would reluctantly concede the economic royalist agenda of the Republican donors in order to keep the money flowing.  Republican donors would reluctantly concede racial demagoguery to win votes.  And so Republican politicians would win elections by appealing to prejudice and demonizing minorities and, once elected, use their office to pass legislation to create a complete plutocracy. 

During the primary season, Republicans would choose the craziest candidate in the field.  The Republican Establishment would campaign against him in the primary, then line up behind him in the general election, confident that they would get their tax cuts and regulatory repeal.  Democrats would try to be pragmatic and elect Establishment candidates, but the party base would refuse to vote for them.  Between the innate advantage our district system gives to rural areas, the power to gerrymander, and Democratic voters’ low turnout in off-year elections, Republicans would lock up the system in their favor.  So the Republicans would rule forever. 

The Virginia election came as a great relief in showing that maybe Steve Bannon wouldn’t win out after all.