Reflections on Hurricane Harvey

Scenes from Hurricane Harvey

So, giving my thoughts on Hurricane Harvey, the good news is that we seem to have learned some things from Katrina.  We have gotten better at dealing with disasters of this kind. 

Which leads to a horrifying thought.  Is this the new normal?  Natural disasters have always been with us, but the scale of Katrina or Harvey really is something new, something we are not accustomed to and, in the case of Katrina, clearly were not prepared for.  But is that going to be how it is from now on?  That every ten years or a massive hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast wreck a major US city? 

The Cerro Grande Fire

Speaking for me personally, I live well out of the way of hurricane country.  Forest fires are our natural disaster of choice where I live.  And prior to the Dome Fire of 1996, I didn’t even know that forest fires had names.  Forest fires existed, but they were not large enough or frequent enough to trouble city dwellers.  Then suddenly there was the Dome Fire with a massive plume of smoke and the sun peaking through it red and dull.  Children had never seen such a thing before and were terrified, wondering if the world was ending.  Then in 2000 the Cerro Grande Fire forced the evacuation of Los Alamos and burned the edges of the town.   And now every summer forest fires menace towns and spark evacuations; every summer the air is full of smoke and haze and we grimly name the latest fires and the areas scorched.  Even as the nation focuses on Harvey and debates whether Houston should have been evacuated, Los Angeles is fighting the La Tuna Fire, the biggest in its history and evacuating significant suburbs.  And I am gazing through the haze, blowing my nose and rubbing my eyes from the smoke.

Is this an early sign of global warming?  I suppose there is no way to be sure.  And (as stated above) it is good that we have learned to adjust and deal with it – so far.  But if this is global warming then it is only going to get worse and worse.  Doubtless we will adjust in some ways.  But they may not be pleasant ones.   The good people of Houston, of Texas, of Louisiana, of the Gulf Coast, of the U.S., and, in the end, of all the world, deserve our applause for how well they have stepped up to meet the emergency.  Natural disasters bring out the best in human nature.  But one reason they bring out the best is that they are seen as short-term emergencies to be met.  Too many natural disasters and people begin experiencing compassion fatigue.*   People fight more over a shrinking pie than an expanding one.  And if global warming is real, the pie is going to start shrinking a lot in the near future.

And a final note on gas prices.  I am actually surprised by how little they have gone up.  During Katrina, they were over $3.00 per gallon by now.  And New Orleans is a lot less central to the petroleum industry than Houston.  It is never comfortable to profit from other people’s misfortunes, but it is also true than many governments that have over-relied on oil money and been feeling a squeeze will experience some temporary relief.  We don’t know how much yet.  But a word of advice to all of them.  This relief will be temporary.  Oil is ultimately a declining industry.  (And a good thing, from the perspective of global warming).  Do not go on a spending spree or act as if this uptick in revenue will last.  Invest it on finding a way off your dependence on oil.  Because no good can come of depending on oil in the long run.

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*As an example, I think of 2004-2005.  I December, 2004 a massive tsunami hit all sides of the Indian Ocean and the world stepped up commendably to meet the emergency.  In August, 2005 Katrina hit New Orleans and the response, once again, was admirable.  But when a massive earthquake hit Pakistan in October the reaction was markedly more muted.  This may, to some extent, have been the case in the US because we simply didn’t relate to people in these remote mountain areas of Pakistan as much as to our fellow countrymen in New Orleans and to the tourist areas around the Indian Ocean.  But I have to think that if it had only been the earthquake without these other disasters as well, then the reaction would have been stronger, and that compassion fatigue was setting in.  (Further note:  Although Katrina may have been the result of global warming, it is clear that the tsunami, caused by an earthquake, and the Pakistani earthquake, clearly were not.  Global warming does not affect earthquakes).