The economic news for today looks really bad. After a mediocre jobs report at the end of March, unemploymnent claims have shot up. News stories report they jumped by 13,000 from 357,000 to 380,000, which shows that someone needs a course in remedial math. An increase from 357,000 to 380,000 is, in fact, a jump of 23,000, an alarming leap.* It is also alarming because it is a jump from the level described as adding jobs quickly to stagnant. (Over 425,000 gets into the losing jobs territory).
We went through this cycle in 2010 and 2011, with hiring appearing to pick up at the beginning of the year, faltering around April, looking like a double dip in the summer, and then looking up again toward the end of the year. It truly is Groundhog Day. My interpretation still stands. Given the clearly cyclical and seasonal nature of the phenomenon, our statisticians clearlly are not properly accounting for some sort of seasonal factors. (In particular, an unseasonably warm winter may have skewed the seasonally adjusted employment statistics this first quarter).
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*The story I link to says that last week's claims have been revised upward. If they have been revised up to 367,000, then the numbers are right. Unmployment applications (and job creation, for that matter) tend to be revised upward as late comers trickle in. So the 380,000 will probably also be revised upward.
We went through this cycle in 2010 and 2011, with hiring appearing to pick up at the beginning of the year, faltering around April, looking like a double dip in the summer, and then looking up again toward the end of the year. It truly is Groundhog Day. My interpretation still stands. Given the clearly cyclical and seasonal nature of the phenomenon, our statisticians clearlly are not properly accounting for some sort of seasonal factors. (In particular, an unseasonably warm winter may have skewed the seasonally adjusted employment statistics this first quarter).
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*The story I link to says that last week's claims have been revised upward. If they have been revised up to 367,000, then the numbers are right. Unmployment applications (and job creation, for that matter) tend to be revised upward as late comers trickle in. So the 380,000 will probably also be revised upward.
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