Donald Trump: Affect versus Effect

 

Donald Trump as admitted that when prices go up, it is just about impossible to bring them down.  Given that he campaigned on a promise to do just that, will it hurt his popularity?

My guess is no, not really.  Last time around he campaigned on bringing back all those good-paying manufacturing jobs that went overseas.  He did not, in fact, bring back all those good paying manufacturing jobs, and that didn't hurt him in the least with the party faithful

My guess is that what is happening here is that people are taking Trump "seriously, but not literally."  Or, stated otherwise, they are judging him by his affect, rather than his effect.  In other words, voters may very well understand that the good-paying manufacturing jobs are not coming back, that when prices go up they are probably not coming down and, in general, that Trump is promising a lot of things that he cannot deliver on.  His supporters do not really blame him for these things because they know that at least he shares their aspirations.  

After years and years of hearing Republicans saying that anyone who does not at least aspire to own a business is a moocher and loser, and Democrats urging everyone to get a good education so they don't get stuck in a dead-end blue collar job, it must be good to hear someone who understands that you don't want to own a business, or to have a degree and desk job, you just want a job that pays a good wage and that is perfectly fine.  Even if Trump could not realistically bring back all those good-paying blue collar jobs, it must be good to hear a politician says that there is nothing wrong with your aspirations, and that you do not need either to own a business or to have a degree to be a valuable member of society.

The same applies this time to inflation.  When you are angry about increased prices, the last thing you want is someone to explain why it really is not as bad as it seems.  You want a leader who is also angry about increased prices.  Even if there is nothing that can realistically be done to lower prices, you still want a leader who shares your anger.

So does this mean that nothing can dent Trump's popularity?  No, I don't think that at all.  I do think that it won't hurt his popularity if nothing really gets better because things are actually pretty good as they are.  What will hurt his popularity is if things get worse.  Such as if high tariffs, large-scale deportations, or budget busting tax cuts cause inflation to go back up again.