What to Make of the Latest Flap

 

So, now that we have averted a government shutdown, what are we to make of the latest flap?

I would say, first and foremost, it appears that not even Trump can control the Freedom Caucus or, as Devin Nunes once called them, the lemmings with suicide vests caucus.  Maybe they will become more compliant once he is actually sworn in, but as of right now, they remain lemmings with suicide vests.

Second and relatedly, although Donald Trump and Elon Musk are spinning this as a win, neither man actually got what he wanted.  Musk called for a government shutdown and a halt to all legislation until Trump is inaugurated.  Trump called for abolition, or at least suspension, of the debt ceiling.  Neither of these happened.  In fact, the final bill was not all that different from the one Musk scuttled, but they did scuttle the first bill, so both men are trying to spin this as a win.

Third, and intriguingly, this may be the first disagreement between Trump and Musk.  At least, Musk called for a government shutdown.  Trump did not.  Trump called for an end to the debt ceiling.  Musk did not.  Maybe nothing will come of this.  But it is interesting.

Finally, and perhaps most significantly in the long run, it confirms my suspicion about a second Trump Administration.  My guess is that there actually will be grownups in the room during this administration.  The bad news is that, instead of being mavens of the Deep State (see above) as in the first Trump Administration, this time they will be the plutocrats.  Deep State mavens were primarily interested in keeping Trump from subverting the rule of law.  The plutocrats are primarily interested in keeping Trump from blowing up the economy.

Clearly one or more of the plutocrats (we have no way of knowing which one(s)) have impressed on Trump just how disastrous a debt ceiling breach would be.  Trump is therefore heavily invested in abolishing the debt ceiling, or at least kicking the can as far down the road as possible.  And he is absolutely right about that.  Stopped clock and all. 

But this is also troubling.  Let me be clear about my order of preferences.  They are as follows:

1. Trump does not subvert the rule of law or blow up the economy.
2. Trump blows up the economy, but does not subvert the rule of law.
3. Trump both subverts the rule of law and blows up the economy.
4. Trump subverts the rule of law but does not blow up the economy.

The reason for this set of preferences is simple.  Our country can recover from economic damage.  It has done so many time.  But it cannot survive as a true democratic republic if the rule of law is subverted.  

Thus the importance of rule number on in any smart authoritarian's playbook.  Don't do anything unpopular until after you have consolidated complete power into your hands.  Taking unpopular actions before you consolidate power will generate pushback and risks thwarting the attempt.  But if you truly manage to consolidate power, then you are free to take unpopular actions if you want because it will be too late to stop you.  Hugo Chavez and Erdogan Recep and classic examples of smart authoritarians who followed this rule.  

Trump, certainly, is not smart, but the grownups in the room just might turn out to be smart authoritarians who understand this rule.  

Then again, the lemmings with suicide vests caucus just might thwart them.