Trump and the Middle East -- the Iran Deal

So, now that the rubber meets the road, what about the Iran deal?  What is Trump trying to accomplish in withdrawing from it?  And what will be the likely consequences?  And, given that basically everyone agrees that it would be disastrous for Iran to get a nuclear weapon, why are so many people determined to destroy the agreement that is preventing that outcome?

The answer to that last appears to be regime change, or at least behavior change so extreme as to be regime change in all but name.  The assumption is that if we tighten the screws enough, we can topple the Iranian government.  Also unstated in this assumption is that if we topple the Iranian government, we will automatically like what takes its place.  Underlying much of the opposition to the agreement in the first place was the assumption that if we had just held on a little longer, the government would have fallen and been replaced by one more to our liking.  Underlying the wish to withdraw from it is the assumption that the Iranian government will fall once we re-apply the screws and, of course, that we will like what takes its place. This appears to be one alternative the Trump is hoping for.

What is likely to actually happen?  I can see as an optimistic scenario an effective game of good cop-bad cop with us and Europe.  Europe maintains trade with Iran so long as they stick with the the terms of the nuclear deal, but they are worried about that crazy US out there.  If the Iranians fear that Europe will abandon them too if  they misbehave, maybe it will create stronger incentives for Iran to curb much of its other objectionable activities.

Maybe.  But Iran's recent firing rockets across the Israeli border is not exactly encouraging.  Those rockets appear to have been part a long series of retaliations and counter-retaliations between Israel and Iran and may not be related to the nuclear deal at all.  But at a very minimum, the recent escalation means that our pulling out of the Iran deal is not leading to any immediate improvement in Iran's behavior.  And there is at least some evidence of stepped-up cyber hostility as well.

But even if worse escalations occur, it is not clear that Donald Trump will be concerned.  He appears to think that since his threats and bluster persuaded North Korea to want to talk to us, rising tensions will produce a similar change in Iran.  In particular, if Trump believes that North Korea is about to give up its entire nuclear arsenal, he may be expecting Iran to grant all our demands if we ramp up tensions enough.

So, short term forecast -- rough sailing ahead.  Long term forecast -- who knows.