Sunday, November 6, 2016


Starting in late October, about the 27th or 28th, Nate Silver started showing Hillary Clinton's chances dropping like a rock, seemingly in free fall -- even as she maintained a fairly steady three-point lead  in the popular vote and her Electoral College firewall appeared to hold, even as all the swing states went over to Trump.

I watched with anxiety, seeing her chances drop by three points or more each day and accelerate, looking almost like a sheer drop, with Trump favored to win if trend continued.  And I kept thinking, this has to stop some time.  There has to be a bottom.  Well, it appears that about Friday the drop leveled out and perhaps began a VERY minimal recovery.  And, for what it is worth, the decline had begun before James Comey dropped his bombshell.  And the stabilization has begun even as Hillary's victory in New Hampshire (part of her firewall) is being called into doubt.  So I don't get it.

But as far as I can tell, this late in the game small shifts carry a disproportionate weight because there is very little time for them to reverse.

So Hillary is favored to win.  But by a razor-thin Electoral College margin and only 3% of the popular vote.  And the Senate remains very much a tossup.

This country has truly lost its senses.

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