Thursday, October 27, 2016

It Ain't Over Till the Fat Lady Sings

Look, complacency is a whole lot more reasonable now than a few months ago.  With only twelve days to go till the election, it will take something fairly stunning for Trump to pull off a victory now.  And yet . . . .

Trump seems to be catching up, especially in swing states.  Arizona, Iowa and Ohio appear to be going over to him.  Clinton's lead is weakening in Florida and North Carolina.  Nate Silver shows a sharp drop in her chances.  And this is all the more remarkable in that as the election grows closer, the leading candidate's chances usually rise, even if there is no change in the polls, simply because the prospect for a future change gets less and less.

Granted, Clinton is still well ahead.  Granted, her really sudden drop is a recent phenomenon and may be short-lived.  And granted, given the overall state of the electoral college, it seems most unlikely that Trump could crack even one real Democratic stonghold, as he must to win.  But at the least, it is starting to appear that the election may be more of a nail biter and less of a route than it seemed just a week ago.

And, of course, that will make it all the easier for Trump to claim fraud and snarl things up . . . .

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