How do you manage to have a household survey that shows an 873,000 job gain in September and an employer survey showing 114,000? Oh, yes, and how can that possibly add up to a 0.3% decline in unemployment in one month despite more people entering the job market?
Don't get me wrong. I'm not one of these conspiracy theorists. It's just really weird.
The 0.3% decline in unemployment is one month is easiest to explain. The figures for July and August were revised, so the drop actually took place over three months rather than one. There's a good chance that the figure for September will be revised in the opposite direction, too. So when the the revisions are finished, it may be more like a 0.2% drop in unemployment over 3 months, which is a perfectly reasonable, and even disappointing, figure.
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