Clueless, but Not Stupid

Paul Krugman has a column on why the Republican field is such a mess. Of course, we all know the answer. The Republican base holds a large number of counter-factual beliefs and makes a large number of contradictory demands on its candidates. And, as Krugman says, "There are only two ways to make the cut: to be totally cynical or totally clueless."

Romney has taken the totally cynical option. He just tells the base whatever lies they want to hear without believing a word of it. Or, as Krugman says, " He isn’t a stupid man — but he seems to play one on TV. Unfortunately from his point of view, however, his acting skills leave something to be desired, and his insincerity shines through." I prefer to believe that the base, though ill-informed or even clueless, is not stupid. They know when they are being played for suckers. And there are few political sins so unforgiveable as playing your constituents for suckers.

So, the Republican base seeks out sincere candidates in the form of Bachman, Perry and Cain, all of whom are clueless. But, remember, the Republican base, although clueless, is not stupid. They know cluelessness when they see it (except in the mirror), and they don't want it in a President.

Krugman, like most people, has dropped Donald Trump's short-lived front runner status down memory hole. Trump, I have no doubt, was cynical, even more cynical than Romney. (He may also be pulling a two-fer by being clueless too). He played the birther card because he thought it would be a winning one with the base. However, it quickly transpired that Trump was seeking to play the base for suckers and really didn't understand them at all. The base abandoned him as soon as that became apparent.

That leaves Gingrich. Is he cynical or clueless? Given that he has endorsed single payer, proposed action against global warming, and taken other positions anathema to the Republican base, I am inclined to say he is cynical. But he is much better at it than either Romney or Trump. Or, as Krugman says, "[E]ven when he knows what he’s saying isn’t true, he manages to believe it while he’s saying it." In other words, he's so cynical he may successfully fool the base because he even fools himself. And, because he really isn't clueless even if he convinces himself of some clueless things, the base will not abandon him for his cluelessness. Of course, this is a very hard tightrope to walk, and he may yet fall off.

The point, though, is that the reason the Republican primary has become such a circus is not that they are appealing to a clueless base. They are appealing to a base that is clueless but not stupid.