Friday, November 18, 2011

What do Trump, Bachman, Cain and Gingrich Have in Common?

Aside from all being some-time Republican front runners, what do Donald Trump, Michelle Bachman, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich all have in common? Answer: None of them has ever been governor of a state. Mitt Romney, by contrast, has been a state governor. So have other promising-looking Republicans who either went nowhere or decided not to even try -- Chris Christie, Haley Barbour, Mitch Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman. After fielding a set of candidates top-heavy with governors, Republicans just don't seem to like any of them. (Rick Perry is the anomaly, but I will get to that soon).
The reason is easy to see. Members of Congress are free to be as nutty as they want, confident that their colleagues will outvote them. CEO's have to run a company, but most of their decisions are non-ideological and irrelevant to national politics, which leaves them free to say whatever they want. Even Speakers of the House can get dangerous but ideologically pleasing legislation through, confident that either it will fail in the Senate or the President will veto it.
Governors do not have these options. Their options are essentially two.
The first is to take the business of governing seriously. This will make them popular in their states and therefore seem like likely candidates. But inevitably it will mean deviating from ideological purity and making concessions to reality, objective and political. This is unacceptable to the Republican base these days. Rick Perry is the anomaly, the one governor who did manage to be a front runner with the Republican base. But he joined the race late and flamed out almost at once, as soon as people started scrutinizing his record and finding out that he made the sort of ideological compromises that are inevitable in successful governing.
The second is to maintain rigid ideological purity, make no compromises and give no ground. This fires up the base for a while, but invariably it is a disasterous way to govern. And invariably governors who are unable to govern become unpopular fast. And unpopular governors just don't look like promising candidates, no matter how ideologically pure they are.
Trump, Bachman, (Perry) and Cain have all enjoyed a brief burst of popularity, only to burn out as they proved not fit for the job. Now it is Gingrich's turn in the sun. But fear not, my friends. If Gingrich flames out, that still leaves Rick Santorum. He's never been a governor either.

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