Back to What if Trump Wins?

So, as we draw close to the Semiquincentennial, my thoughts go not just toward the vulgar display Trump is making and his appalling escalations in cracking down on opponents, but also to the choose your own adventure story, What if Trump Wins?  The reason for my obsession is simple -- What if Trump Wins assumes that our make-or-break moment happens some time in the first half of this year.  

Actually, the authors are somewhat less than clear on the timeline, for obvious reasons.  They offer two possible showdowns.  One is that Trump decides to defy the 22nd Amendment and seek a third term, which seems plausible.  The other is that he attempts to forcibly shut down an electric vehicle plant, which seems a bit far-fetched.*  In all such cases, the authors assume that Trump will fail if the resistance and non-resistance wings of the opposition join forces, and that he will successfully crush the resistance if they do not join forces.  

In all cases, if non-resistance movements decline to join forces with the resistance, then by the Semiquincentennial (July 4, 2026), non-resistance opposition hear about the resistance being beaten up and arrested.  Trump stays in power for a third term and democracy fails.  They are also weirdly precise about that happens to the resistance if they do not reach out to the more moderate opposition.  The strike committee attempts a general strike on February 21 (presumably 2026), fails, and is crushed.  The tax resistance committee peters out after Tax Day, April 15 (again, presumably 2026) and is crushed.  If the resistance and non-resistance wings join forces over an electric vehicle plant, the authors envision Trump's power being shattered, and him losing his grip on the Republican Party.  He limps out as a lame duck until the end of his term and then loses.  If the resistance and non-resistance wings join forces over Trump seeking a third term, the authors appear to envision it happening in the lead-up to the 2028 election, which makes sense.  But failure to join forces means defeat before July 4, 2026??  Does this make any sense?  Actually, many of their scenarios are rather vague about a lot of things, which makes sense, sine the more precise the prediction, the more ways for it to go wrong.  

At present, all signs point to the real showdown taking place during the buildup to and aftermath of the midterm elections, a topic the choose-your-adventure never so much as mentions.**  This is strange when you get down to it.  The midterms are highly salient for all Presidents.  And really, the book totally ignores normal electoral politics, lobbying, and government outside of the federal executive -- a significant omission.  

So, I want to take an extensive backward look at What if Trump Wins before the Fourth is upon us, interspersed with posting about what is actually happening in the real world, and maybe a little Sherlock Holmes.

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*Actually, it has three possible showdowns, one for each resistance group.  One has the showdown over forcibly closing an electric vehicle plant, and two over an attempt to seek a third term.  More on that later.

**Not quite true.  For people working on safeguarding elections, there is a single throw-away mention of worrying about the integrity of the midterm and future elections.