Why Did He Do It?

 

So, given just how much of a humiliating surrender we have taken in the war with Iran, the obvious question is why Trump agreed to it.  I can think of several possibilities.

They hope sanction relief will moderate Iran

One possibility is that our overall sanctions relief may be seen as a bet that if we stop treating Iran as a pariah, it will stop acting like a pariah and rejoin the community of nations and act like just another country.  Stranger things have happened, after all.  Nixon going to China and all that.  And let's face it, China really did, over time, stop acting like a pariah and become more like any other country.  But its moderation has had its limits and China remains an adversary.  

My main reason for doubting that this is Trump's motive is simple enough.  It just seems more far-sighted and better thought out than he seems capable of.  

Trump has fallen "in love" again

Trump does seem to have a chronic attraction to authoritarians of all kinds, from Putin to Xi to Kim Jong Un.  Why should Iran be any exception?  It did cross my mind that we had better not let him talk to the ayatollahs or he might end up following the usual pattern.  He is sure acting like he has fallen under their spell, and this without even any in-person meetings.  Presumably he has gotten regular reports going both ways and possibly phone conversations.

It is all about oil prices

The high oil and gas prices resulting from the war were scaring Trump and hurting him in domestic politics.  He may be calculating that if he can just bring down gas prices, his popularity will recover and no one outside of a few news junkies will care about our humiliating defeat.  My guess is that this is his primary motivation, and that the calculation will probably prove to be correct.

Trump just got bored and wanted to move on.

Also a possibility we cannot rule out.