So, it appears that the Ukrainian airplane that crashed in Iran was shot down by a surface-to-air missile. This should not be surprising. The crash in the middle of a political and military crisis seemed like an extraordinary coincidence, so it should hardly come as a surprise that it was not a coincidence.
Thus far no one* is suggesting that the Iranians did it deliberately, and I am inclined to agree, for two reasons. One is that shooting down passenger jets is a sensitive topic for Iranians. The US shot down an Iranian passenger jet in 1988. It was in the middle of a war zone, the sort of crisis decision that is easy to get wrong -- and we did. On the other hand, the US government conducted a thorough investigation and acknowledged the mistakes made (even as it argued that those mistakes were understandable) and, although it never formally apologized, expressed regrets for the mistake and paid damages. Needless to say, Iran is unlikely to be as honest in its assessments.
I wish I could believe this episode would make Iran a little more understanding of our actions in 1988 -- not going so far as to excuse us, perhaps, but seeing how anyone could have made them. But I don't think this will happen any more than the 1988 incident made us any more understanding of the 1983 Soviet shoot down of a Korean plane.**
I knew that shooting down passenger jet was a sensitive topic to Ukrainians because a Malaysian airplane was shot down in Ukraine by Russian-backed separatists. What I did not realize was that the Ukrainian air force also mistakenly shot down a passenger jet in 2001 although, to their credit, they apologized for the mistake.
I hope it is not insensitive to this terrible tragedy to give some thoughts to the political ramifications. It seems to me that a whole lot of people were marveling at Iran's political brilliance in its air strikes on the US bases in Iraq. They refrained from killing anyone and were therefore not too provocative, but showed such pinpoint accuracy as to serve as an obvious warning. The Iranians also gained by rallying the population in outrage over the killing of their general and keeping some support in Europe in hopes of saving the JCPOA. All that squandered with one careless act!
Presumably the unity that followed the killing of Suleimani will dissipate fast if Iranians find out that their government killed 82 of their fellow countrymen -- and by shooting down a passenger plane, no less. (I don't know how well the government will be able to suppress this news, but it is getting harder these days). Europeans who were willing to work with Iran in a desperate attempt to salvage the nuclear deal may feel differently after the Iranians killed so many of their countrymen. They would probably forgive the mistake if only the Iranians owned up to it, but we all know that won't happen. And firing missiles into Iraq, even if the missiles didn't actually kill anyone, has understandably offended a lot of Iraqis.
The good news (I guess) is that no one seems to want to use this to escalate the crisis -- at least not yet.
And one more comment. It appears I was too credulous in believing the Administration when it said a major attack was in the offing. Members of Congress shown the evidence all agree there was nothing to support it.
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*Well, probably someone way off in the fever swamps is saying it, but I don't care to go hunting that far. No one in the Trump Administration or any reputable source is saying it, and that is enough for me.
**The Korean plane had wandered into a militarily sensitive area at the same time as a spy plane. The Soviets appear to have confused the two planes -- a less excusable mistake, but still a mistake.
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