!!!

And, now an event powerful enough to drive impeachment into the background.

US forces bombed an Iranian convoy in Iraq, killing Iranian General Qassim Suleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Quds, the intelligence service that runs the Iranian secret police and terrorist proxies throughout the world) and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, leader of Qataib Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian militia that attacked the US embassy in Iraq, together with a spokesman for the militia and two others.

According to Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Suleimani's forces were planning additional attacks on US troops and diplomats throughout Iraq.  If so, Suleimani was extraordinarily rash and arrogant in his actions and certain to overreach sooner or later.  (Sooner, it turned out).

So what to make of this?  I don't have the slightest idea.  Still, a few uninformed comments.

First, clearly this was a brilliant tactical operation, supported by some extraordinary intelligence, so congratulations to our forces for a job well done.

Second, although Suleimani has headed Quds for some 20 years, it seems unlikely that this will be a decapitation strike that brings down the whole organization.  Quds, by all accounts, is an entrenched bureaucracy that will be able to replace its leader.

Third, Suleimani's replacement may very well be just as bad, if not worse, but it seems unlikely that he will be as competent.  By all accounts, Suleimani was extremely competent.  Quds will not collapse or moderate, but it may be thrown into temporary confusion and permanently weakened.

Fourth, I have no idea whether Qataib Hezbollah will survive.

And finally, I do not know enough to even speculate on the long-term ramifications.  I have heard everything from this is the beginning of the end of all Iranian influence throughout the region to this will engulf the Middle East in a massive war.  (All from experts, by the way).  So I will refrain from predictions and watch events unfold.

One inexpert comment, though.  In general, optimism is not a good bet in the Mideast.