Qataib Hezbollah is part of the al-Fath Alliance in the Iraqi Parliament, which has 48 members. That might not same like much out of a total of 329, but it is the second largest group. (The largest is the "Forward" alliance with 54). Al-Fath is also part of the governing coalition and Qataib Hezbollah is under the nominal command of the Prime Minister.
Cole predicts that al-Fath may start mobilizing angry mobs as well as militias.
This has confused some Americans. Large crowds were protesting Iranian influence in Iraq and corruption. Then large crowds started protesting the US presence. What is going on? The obvious answer is, these large crowds do not contain the same people.
Qataib Hezbollah/the Popular Mobilization Forces/al-Fath are not anything close to a majority (remember, 48 seats out of 329). But they are a significant minority and highly mobilized and determined significant minorities can be formidable, especially if they have their own private army.
Never asked is to what extent the youth demonstrators protesting Iranian influence and corruption speak for a majority of Iraqis. Americans tend to assume that they do, but that is because we like their message.
And in any event, just because the youth demonstrators resent Iranian domination, does not necessarily mean that they welcome US domination. We made that same mistake back in 2003, assuming that just because Iraqis hated Saddam Hussein, they must necessarily love us.
Stay tuned.
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