So, Iraq's parliament has passed a symbolic and non-binding resolution demanding that US troops leave the country, which Trump has vowed to defy. No on knows whether the Iraqi government will actually order US troops out, or whether the US will comply.
Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi says that when General Qassim Suleimani was visiting the country, it was actually on a diplomatic mission, with Iraq mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia in an effort to lower tensions in the Mideast. I have no idea if this is true. If true, that would certainly have been a Good Thing and it is unfortunate that the attempt has now been scuttled. On the other hand, optimism is never a good bet in the Middle East.
Both the Iranian government and Hezbollah have vowed revenge but promised to limit it to military target. I can only say, I hope they keep their promise, but if they think limiting themselves to military targets will prevent escalation, they are sorely mistaken.
Oh, yes, and US ability to fight ISIS has been severely compromised by lack of Iraqi cooperation and Shia militias have warned Iraqi troops to get away from US troop or be targets. US troops are limiting themselves to self-protection. It seems most likely that if the Iraqi government does order our forces out, we will have no choice but to comply, or to invade in force. It is no insult to the quality of our troops to point out that there are only 5,000 of them, that they are hopelessly outnumbered, and things wouldn't go well for them.
Of course, if our troops do leave, that will leave the Iranians attempting to swallow all of Iraq and most likely getting a severe case of indigestion. A whole lot of Iraqis will not like that outcome and many of them have private armies. We are not the only ones who overreach and don't think things through.
Oh, yes, and Iran has declared itself no longer bound by the JCPOA limits on uranium enrichment. It is my understanding that the JCPOA had reduced Iran's breakout time to build a nuclear bomb to about a year. That makes the next year extremely perilous as our leaders are apt to see it as the last chance to wage preventive war before Iran gets the Bomb. And if Iran does get the Bomb, it will presumably be a year or more from now, i.e., after the next election.
A plea to Iran. You have vowed retaliation. The expulsion of US troops from Iraq and restarting a nuclear program sound like very effective retaliation, but not necessarily enough to force retaliation from us. Can't you leave it at that?
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