Iraqi Airstrike from the Perspective of Domestic Politics

All sense of fairness, perspective, and patriotism combined to require me to wait for a decent interval after the airstrike killing General Suleimani before analyzing it from the perspective of domestic US politics.

And by a decent interval, of course, I mean one day.

So here goes.

My opinion in international terms remains the same.  It was a brilliant tactical strike showing the extraordinary skill of our military and intelligence services.  Whether it was an appropriate response to head off an imminent terrorist attack, and what the medium- to long-term ramifications are are unknown and unknowable at present.  They will be revealed over time.

I must say, though, that I don't agree with people saying this was a rash and impulsive response to the attack on our embassy.  An attack of this kind has to be planned out well in advance.  My guess is that the drone strikes and the airstrike were part of a pre-conceived plan.  That the attack on the embassy occurred during the interval was not part of our plan, but may have stiffened our resolve.

In terms of domestic policy.

First of all, coming in the middle of impeachment proceedings, this necessarily raises Wag the Dog questions.  Is Trump escalating against Iran as a matter of national interest, or to distract from his domestic political problems.  I have no idea.

On the other hand, the opposite question arises.  Has Trump's particularly deranged tweeting recently been a clever attempt to distract people from an ongoing military operation?  That would require more foresight and self control that he has generally shown, but you never know.

Second, I continue to believe that Trump knows nothing about policy and does not care to learn, refuses to pay attention to his security briefing, and has the emotional maturity and impulse control of a small child.  This nonetheless has not prevented the military and  the intelligence services from doing highly competent work.

Third, the very night the strike occurred I saw an article, on of many, speculating that Trump has dementia.  This one went further than most, specifically predicting that by next year he will increasingly lose balance and become "uncommunicative."  (Not clear what that means).  By 2021 he will need a cane and become increasingly wheelchair bound.  By 2022 he was start having problems with aspiration (choking).  By 2023 he will be bedridden and need 24-7 care.  Clearly by that time even Trump's most devoted followers will have to admit he is unfit to govern and the 25th Amendment will come into play.  But in the meantime we might be faced with the prospect of a war, or at least a highly delicate international situation that could lead in unpredictable directions, under the leadership of a President whose cognitive abilities are degenerating fast.  Not an encouraging prospect!

Finally, I have definite advice to all Democrats on what to say.  Praise the tactical brilliance of the strike and then add that no one can know the long-range outcome and we must all hope and pray for the best while preparing for the worst.  That is a nice vague statement that can't get you in trouble no matter what happens.

Finally, on a personal level, as the saying goes, two things can be true.  (1) I am beside myself with anxiety, wonder what will be next and hating the absolute uncertainty of it, and (2) the countless commentators (expert and pundit alike) speculating on what comes next are driving me nuts!