Alternative to "But Her Emails"

Then again, I can think of alternate captions to "But Her Emails."  One might be "At Least We Got a Tax Cut."  But I am thinking more in terms of "I Alone Can Fix It," or "What Do You Have to Lose?"  And, of course, the old standby, "Make America Great Again."

I Alone Can Fix it

Make America Great Again

What Do You Have to Lose?

"But Her E-Mails" Rides Again

Look, I have officially gone on record warning against catastrophizing everything Donald Trump does for fear of looking like Chicken Little.  I warned that if we kept screaming disaster and nothing disastrous happened, people would stop listening.  This was not to deny that bad things could come of Trump's policies over time, but they were small accumulations occurring slowly, not major disasters.  And this meant cutting out "But Her Emails' jokes. 

"But her e-mails" jokes show some catastrophe befalling the country under Donald Trump and the anti-anti-Trump response of, "but her e-mails."  This is in response to the 2016 election in which there was no accusation against Trump, none, that he could not turn back to the matter of Hillary's e-mails.  If Donald Trump has shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue, when asked about it he would have responded that out of a nation of 300 million, he killed just one person, whereas Hillary put us all in danger by her careless handling of classified information.

The usual "but her emails" shows a flood with the comment on a sign, as shown above.  But there have been other versions as well, showing drought, fire, freezing, and nuclear war.

For a while I tried replacing "But her e-mails" with "At least we got a tax cut," ultimately I went ahead and retired the category, except when talking about the actual subject of e-mails or other careless handling of classified information.

Well, that time is up.  The hypothetical disasters may not have come about be we have more than enough real ones on our hands -- pandemic, depression, riots, and military-looking federal forces seizing protesters into unmarked cars.  I get that no one is thinking about Hillary's e-mails now, but I say it is time to bring the category back, with real disasters instead of imaginary ones.  I plan to start posting my own versions quite regularly:

Update in New Mexico COVID

And the latest news in New Mexico COVID is -- not good.  Not as bad as the big four -- California, Texas, Florida and Arizona -- but still bad.  But our numbers are going up, consistently running over 200 new case per day and trending toward the high 200's rather than the low 200's.  Our cumulative total is now 13,063 and rising fast.

It is not enough to compare these to the numbers in the big four.  The big four all have larger populations than New Mexico, so the comparison is not fair.  Arizona has roughly 3.5 times the population of New Mexico; Florida 10 times, Texas 14 times, and California 20 times. 

That makes Florida numbers especially easy to compare to ours -- just knock off the last digit and you have it  Florida's total if just over 200,000, and rising faster with approaching or just above 10,000 new cases per day.  That would be equivalent to about 20,000 total cases in New Mexico -- more than ours, but not spectacularly so.  But the number of new cases a day is equivalent to 1,000 new cases per day in New Mexico --at least four times more.

Texas has 191,790 total cases and about 8,000 new cases per day.  Adjusted for population that is equivalent to 13,699 total cases in New Mexico and 571 new cases per day -- similar in total cases, but at least twice as many new cases.  California has a total of 260,155 cases and is running about 8,000 new cases a day, but with a spike to nearly 10,000.  That is roughly equivalent to 13,008 total cases in New Mexico with about 400 new cases per day and a recent spike to 500.  But Arizona is doing by far the worst, with 94,533 new cases and about 4000 new cases per day.  With only three and a half times the New Mexico population, that is equivalent to 27,000 total cases and about 1,143 new cases per day.

Since none of these states except Arizona has a cumulative total all that much more than ours, it would suggest that California, Texas and Florida all had their outbreak under better control than New Mexico until recently.  I believe that is true.  Although New Mexico has a whole has done reasonably well, we have had a bad outbreak in the Navajo area in the northwest part of the state which skews that total for the state as a whole.*

As for New Mexico, our number of tests has gone up, from something over 4,000 per day to something over 6,000 a day.  As a result, although our numbers have gone up disturbingly, our positivty rate has gone up only slightly.  (Daily positivity rates are too noisy to allow any conclusion).  The overall pattern has changed.  Positives are starting to fall in the Navajo counties of San Juan and McKinley (San Juan more than McKinley).  The prison outbreak also appears to have spent itself.  The main outbreaks now are in the major population centers of Albuquerque and Las Cruces.  Santa Fe is also seeing an increase, but not as bad.  Once it was shocking to see San Juan and McKinley counties, with much smaller populations than Bernalillo County, exceed it in numbers of cases.  Bernalillo County is now fast catching up to San Juan. 

Is this the result of reopening?  Or of the protests?  Or is it backwash from our neighbors on both sides?  It is hard to sort out the first two, but I do not think this is incoming from Arizona or Texas.  Our counties bordering those states do not seem hard hit.  The problem is mostly in Albuquerque and Las Cruces.

Finally, both hospitalization and death rates started falling at the same time as the increase in numbers.  Hospitalizations, after holding steady at about 17% of all infections, have now fallen below 16% and are just over 15%.  The mortality rate, after holding steady around 4.5%, has now fallen below 4%.  This may be a good sign -- that a younger cohort is catching the disease and is less affected, or that we are getting better at treatment.  But I am not convinced.  Hospitalization and death are both lagging indicators.  That both rates are falling may just mean that statistics are being overloaded with new cases, some of which will lead to hospitalization or death later on. 

After all, another lagging indicator is the percentage of people who have recovered.  That, too, is falling.

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*And I don't know, but it would not surprise me if Arizona had high numbers even before the latest outbreak, that was primarily in the Navajo areas as well.  By now, the outbreak has spread well beyond that.

A Face-Saving Proposal for Donald Trump

There is one piece of good news on the COVID front.  As the disease is increasingly spreading in red states, many Republican leaders are starting to endorse wearing masks.  Their numbers include Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and even Sean Hannity and Steve Doocey on Fox News. 

And, after all, wearing masks makes sense, particularly from a Republican perspective.  Do you hate shutdowns?  Do you want businesses to be free to operate and make profit.  Good news!  We can curb the virus without shutting down -- by wearing masks.  Do you hate government interference in your life?  Well good news!  In countries like Japan and Hong Kong, government as been inactive and the initiative of private citizens has beaten back the virus -- by wearing masks.  Masks can truly be seen as the less intrusive and disruptive alternative to a shutdown.  So what is the problem?

The problem seems to be that Donald Trump has made masks a culture war issue and refusal to wear masks a test of loyalty.  It is hard to say why.  Maybe he thinks he looks foolish in a mask.  Maybe he just can't admit something really bad is happening on his watch.  Maybe division and polarization are so vital to him that just can't give up the habit.  Maybe:

Trump is literally incapable of admitting error, even implicitly, which means he will never go on TV and declare that everyone should wear a mask. Quite the contrary: he’s more likely to double down and declare that mask wearing is ridiculous and useless. He’s probably the only person in America who could effectively deliver the mask message to the people who really need it, but he refuses to do so.

What are the chances that Donald Trump will yield to pressure, if not from Congressional Republicans, then at least from commentators on Fox News?  I have no idea.  He has been known to yield to pressure before -- to admit that Russia hacked the DNC, for instance, or to condemn neo-Nazis at Charlotteville -- but invariably he seems to snap back. 

But have no fears.  I have a face-saving out for him.

Face shields.  Think of the advantages.  They give protection against COVID, but they aren't masks.  They are more comfortable and easier to breath in than masks.  They allow people to see your face, which seems to be a big issue for some mask opponents.  They allow Trump to show his face and avoid his fears of looking foolish in a mask.

But above all, face shield allow you to protect against COVID while still making a culture war issue of it.  Donald Trump can denounce masks as the work of the devil and praise face shields to the sky.  Can anyone doubt that Republican opinion leaders from Congress to Fox will promptly fall in line and make face shields the new test of party loyalty.  Suddenly you can make a political statement, not by whether you wear a mask or not, but by whether you wear a mask or a face shield.  Culture wars can continue to rage, even as everyone takes measures to beat back the disease. 

Hell, I would even urge liberals to get irate about face shields if it will just convince Trumpsters to wear them.

Joe Biden's Pitch

Honestly, we have gotten to the point that Joe Biden's election pitch doesn't require much more than, "Hi, I'm Joe Biden, a normal person with an ordinary capacity for compassion and empathy.  I know you can't cure virus by shining a flashlight up your nose, and I'll never ask anyone to drink bleach.  I am known to say things that are dumb or even offensive, but when I do, I admit I was wrong.  If that is what you want in a President, then vote for me."

On Statue Toppling

And just for the record, I do not condone these crowds -- mobs, really -- that have been toppling statues.  Yes, it is preferable to mobs smashing windows and looting, but toppling statutes ought not to be confused for peaceful protests.  Toppling statues is still mob action, and a low-level form of riot.

And yes, some of these statues deserve to be taken down.  But taking down statues should be done through official action, following public debate.  Condoning toppling statues is capitulating to mob rule, and mob rule is never good.

And, incidentally, as our moral guardians are increasingly treating any criticism of the protesters as out of bounds, I am beginning to fear the we are succumbing to a sort of intellectual mob rule as well.

PS:  And it should go without saying, but none of this is to deny that police brutality and institutionalized racism are serious issues that should be addressed. I would just prefer a more rational and deliberative pace.  Haste is apt to lead to ill-considered actions.  A backlash is inevitable and must be endured, but ill-considered actions will give the backlash legitimate grievances that I would rather it not have.

COVID in New Mexico

I live in New Mexico, a state that has been ahead of the curve in COVID testing.  We have had some of the best testing from early on during the outbreak, and have now reached the point of having enough tests for anyone who wants one.  Our state posts daily statistics, which I have been closely following and eventually started a spreadsheet on. 

A few comments on what I have observed.

Our number of tests performed has been increasing at an impressive rate.  When I started the spreadsheet (May 9), we had slightly under 100,000 tests done.  The number is now nearing 300,000.  In a population of 2.1 million, that will amount to one test per seven people.  (Although some people may be tested more than once).  In the time I have been keeping track, the number of people being tested has typically risen by something more than 4,000 people per day.  In the meantime, the typical number of positive tests has been rising by around 100 to 150 per day.  On good days, we have had less than 100 positive tests and on bad days more than 150, but I have seen only very few days with increases over 200 and only two with increases over 300.

The effect has been that our rate of positive tests have fallen, even as the number of positives continues to rise at a fairly steady rate.  The rate of positive tests was nearly five percent (4.92%) when I started my spreadsheet and has since fallen below for percent (3.6% today).  The positivity rate in new tests has been noisy, but consistently less than the total positive rate, so the cumulative positive rate continues to fall.

That being said, I do not believe that our increase in testing is uncovering a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases that were going undiagnosed at the beginning.  The reason I think that is that if we were uncovering more mild or asymptomatic cases than before, one would expect the mortality rate or hospitalization rate (as a percentage of infected people) to go down.  Instead, the mortality rate has been holding steady at about 4.5% of infected people and the hospitalization rate has been holding steady at about 17% of infected people.*

The infection rate has been unequal across the state.  Unsurprisingly, Bernalillo County, the county that includes Albuquerque, and by far the most populous county in New Mexico, has counted for a considerable share of the infections, but less than its share of the population.  With approximately 30% of the population of New Mexico, Bernalillo County's share of the total infections has fallen from 23% on May 23 to 17% today.  Positivity rate has fallen from about 3.5% to under three percent.  There does not appear to be any significant increase following the protests, but I am still warily watching.

Dona Ana County is New Mexico's second most populous with about 10% of the population.  Although Dona Ana County originally appeared to be doing well, it had a recent outbreak among its colonias (roughly rural slums).  I am not fully confident that the outbreak is behind us, but at least it does not appear to be running out of control.  The total positive rate in Dona Ana County is now below 3%, with the positive rate among new tests noisy, but rarely above 5%.

Santa Fe County, with a population of about 150,000, has had over 18,000 tests and only 196 positives, for a rate slightly over 1%.  Santa Fe County is doing fine.

The hardest-hit counties in New Mexico have not been its urban areas, but San Juan County (population 124,000) and McKinley County (population 72,000), two counties in the northwest of the state with large Navajo populations.  Both have greater absolute numbers of cases than the much more populous Bernalillo County.  Positive test rates have run as high as 15% in San Juan County and perhaps even 19% in McKinley.  It should also be noted that McKinley County, despite its smaller population, has had more tests done than San Juan County -- the number exceeds 20,000, or about 28% of the population.  There is some sign that the worst may have passed in San Juan County; positivity is noisy but has fallen to single digits for something over a week.  But McKinley County continues to have positive rates in double digits.

Sandoval County also deserves mention.  Home to many Indian Pueblos, it looked alarming early on during the outbreak.  It was showing positive cases far in excess of its population (slightly smaller than Santa Fe County), with a rate of about 7%.  There are now only a handful of new cases per day, and the positive rate fell below 3% for the first time today.  I don't know what the pueblos have done, but it appears to have worked.

The other (mostly rural) counties are doing well.  And, incidentally, not all Native American populations have been hit hard.  Rio Arriba County has the Jicarilla Apaches and Otero County has the Mescalero Apaches and both are doing fine.

Deaths and recoveries are also interesting, although the recovery rate comes with the warning that the number of recoveries may be understated because not everyone who has recovered informs the Health Department.  Recovery rate is useful, because it tells us when the worst is past.  The recovery rate for the state as a whole is currently 44.34%.  For Bernalillo County the rate is 62.88%.  The overall death rate has consistently been around 4.5%.  That rate has not gone down with increased testing, suggesting that increased testing has not uncovered a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases that were being missed. 

San Juan County's mortality rate has been 7%, which seems excessive.  I thought this might be a sign that we were missing cases in that state, but the positivity rate is going down, and the recovery rate is up to 52/4%.  These are signs that the worst may be passed, yet the mortality rate remains high.  McKinley County's death rate is edging up and now exceeds 5%.  Nor is the worst over.  Positivity remains high in new tests, despite extremely widespread testing.  And, worse, only 35.5% of all people diagnosed with the disease are known to have recovered.

Meanwhile, Dona Ana County's mortality rate remains anomalously low, at less than one percent, or six deaths out of 718 total cases.  When the outbreak began there, I waited for a upsurge in deaths, but so far it has not materialized.  And a little over half the people diagnosed in Dona Ana County have now recovered.  This would seem like a hopeful sign, that we have become more effective in treating this disease, except that death rates continue to rise in San Juan and McKinley Counties.

There has definitely been a recent upsurge in cases in New Mexico, focused on a prison in Otero County, though without apparent spread to the general community.  There have been 828 positive tests in a very short period of time.  Only six people have died so far, but only ten have recovered.  Today the prison diagnoses were 30% of total new cases and 15% of all active cases. 

Finally, although 1,746 people have been hospitalized for COVID in New Mexico, there have never been more than 223 active hospitalizations at a time, which is manageable.  The number of active hospitalizations peaked on May 15 and has been steadily declining since June 10.  But I expect an increase soon as a result of the prison outbreak.

Stay tuned.

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*There has been a recent drop in the hospitalization rate to 16.53% of infected people, but i suspect that is because of a recent surge in cases at a prison, with hospitalizations still lagging diagnoses.