COVID New Mexico: An Update

 I follow New Mexico COVID trends and right now they are very, very bad  The state keeps a map of counties, marking them red, yellow or green depending on the outlook.  Right now one county is marked yellow and the rest are a sea of red.  The number of cases is consistently between 1,000 and 2,000 out of a population of 2.1 million.  And recently it has been a lot closer to 2,000 (nearly one diagnosis per thousand population per day).  The positivity rate ranges between 10% and 20%.  The last two days have been high -- and that has been on a weekend when resting is low.  And all of this follows a two-week shutdown and very high mask compliance.  It was never anywhere near this bad in the spring, except in the northwestern, highly Navajo, counties of San Juan and McKinley.

The governor is naturally trying to find a positive spin.  She argues that the R0 factor (the number of new infections for each case) is at an all-time low, so new infections should start going down any time.  I am not holding my breath.  In fairness, at least new infections are not going up at an alarming rate, but seem to be stabilizing, albeit at a very high rate. The number of people in the hospital has stabilized in the 900's.  In the spring it peaked at 223.

The percentage of people who have recovered is slowly inching up.  That hospitalization rate (i.e., percentage of infected people who are hospitalized) and the mortality rate, after dropping sharply, are stabilizing.  This might seem bad, but probably just means the system is not being overwhelmed with new cases.

But this does not mean the outbreak is declining.  It just means that approximately 1,800 new case per day is becoming the new normal and hospitalizations, deaths, and recoveries are catching up.  In the Dakotas, where over 10% of the population has been infected, the great majority have recovered.  Infection rates remain high; the high recovery rate just means this has been going on a long time.  North Dakota has imposed a mask mandate and experienced a sharp drop in cases.  South Dakota not imposed any sort of mandate and has seen a significant decline, though infections still remain high.*  I can only take this to mean one of two things.  Either South Dakota residents have been sufficiently alarmed by the outbreak to change their behavior, or the state really is achieving a degree of herd immunity.

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*New Mexico and South Dakota new infections relative to population are similar, both down from their peak, but South Dakota much further down from a higher peak.

A Modest Proposal for How to Placate Trumpsters While Preserving Democracy

This American carnage ends right now

 The Supreme Court having rejected the latest last insane attempt to overturn the election, the reality is finally hitting home for Trump supporters and maybe even Trump himself that they really won't be able to overturn this election, and the end is at hand.  The Electoral College meets on Monday to make the obvious official.

In some ways, it seems almost a shame, because I had just come up with a Modest Proposal to make all sides happy.

Donald Trump has achieved extraordinary success at simply disregarding reality and governing in a fantasy world, so why not take this approach to the ultimate conclusion -- the question of who is President.  While Joe Biden holds a real inauguration, takes up residence in the White House, and takes commands of the government, Donald Trump can stage his counter-inaugural.  We can build a TV set of the White House for him and allow him to play act at being President for right-wing TV.  He can tweet, sign papers, give speeches, hold rallies and even announce "policies."  Fox, Newsmax, and OAN can hold regular shows on his brilliant leadership, bring on members of his mock-Cabinet, and even some Republican members of Congress to talk about his latest legislative initiative.

Meanwhile, Biden can take control of the actual federal bureaucracy, appoint competent officials, clean up the mess Trump left, and even work with Republicans in Congress to pass COVID relief.  The New York Times, Washington Post, CNN and other mainstream media can report on the doings of the actual government, and Trump supporters will never be the wiser because they never follow these sources anyhow.  To the extent reports of the actual government penetrate even the right wing bubble, talking heads can always right it off as "fake news" from the "lamestream media."  

Why, Republicans could even cooperate minimally with a Biden Administration.  Why not, even they could just go on right wing TV and deny it?  All incentive to hurt America for political advantage would vanish, since their supporters would think Donald Trump was still in office, and good news would be good new.

Well, I can dream, can't I?

The Squeaky Hinge Gets the Oil

 So, just how large is the "release the kracken" wing of the Republican Party?  

This article may be revealing.  As we all know Georgia's governor, Brian Kemp, is refusing to overturn the election.  It has hurt his popularity among Georgia Republicans, but not all that much.  His approval rating among Republicans has fallen from 86% to 77%.  And his disapproval has fallen from 10% to 19%.  So apparently nine percent of Republican voters have turned against him.  That suggests that the Kracken voters are about nine percent of all Republicans.

Other estimates I have read have place the numbers higher -- about twenty percent.  Either way, this would suggest that the real nuts make up only a distinct minority of Republican voters.

Unfortunately, in a close state Republicans cannot afford to have twenty percent or even nine percent of their voters stay home or vote third party.

What Will Be the Fallout of This Election?

At least we got a tax cut

Donald Trump will not succeed in stealing this election.  Given the Republican sweep everywhere but the presidency, there have not been many opportunities for other Republicans to contest their defeat.  (As I understand it, a few have, but not as aggressively as Trump).

What Trump's challenge of this election has accomplished is to allow future Republican candidate to probe for the weaknesses in the system and understand better how to overturn an election next time.

Clearly the number one lesson of this election is that the courts are not the way to do it.  Judges, even the most right wing judges, are not willing to throw out an election.

But the aftermath of this election has reviewed some more promising targets.

The vote counting and vote certifying system is the most obvious point of attack.  This time, Georgia's Republican Secretary of State held firm and insisted on upholding the integrity of the election.  Can anyone doubt that he will face a primary challenger next time around?  Can anyone doubt that Republicans will be running as voting officials on a promise to "count all the legal votes and none of the illegal votes," which will be code for never certifying a Democrat, no matter what.  

Granted many of the other swing states had Democratic Secretaries of State who were not subject to such pressure.  Republicans will challenge all of them, no doubt.  Maybe they will fail.  But there are other election officials as well.  The usual county level elections official is the County Clerk. Given that counties are units of geography rather than population, most County Clerks can be expected to be Republicans for the foreseeable future. What if County Clerks just throw out all Democratic votes in their counties as fraudulent?  It may be enough to close statewide office to Democrats.

In Michigan, the state and each county has a four-member elections board, consisting of two Democrats and two Republicans. In Wayne County and statewide, some board members resisted certifying the results.  What if in the future Republicans on Michigan elections boards refuse to certify Democrats regardless of the vote?  

And then there is the matter of state legislatures. Between gerrymandering and the normal tendency of election maps to favor less concentrated populations, all the swing states have solidly Republican legislatures. Following the census, they will reapportion so as to ensure Republican domination for the next decade.  State legislatures could not override the popular vote after the election.  But suppose they change the law to move voting for Presidential electors from the people to the state legislature.  Such a move would clearly be constitutional.  And at least one Supreme Court theory holds that state governors would not have the power to veto such a change. 

The only question can be, will Republicans pay a political price for such measures.

Will Republicans Ever Acknowledge the Pandemic?

 

But her e-mails

So let us concede that Americans are really, really tired of COVID restrictions.  And let us further concede that many of the restrictions are irrational and are driven more by political than scientific considerations.

Nonetheless, the virus is raging out of control and is getting really bad.  At what point will it become apparent to the casual observer that there is a problem?  At what point will the virus itself, rather than efforts to control its spread, start to become disruptive.

The obvious answer is that I don't know, that it may depend on the local culture.  And above all, the answer may be "never."  It may be that a disease that is only two percent fatal, and that most people recover from in about two weeks will never, by itself, become disruptive enough to persuade your casual observer to make lifestyle changes.

Obviously, the virus will be a serious problem in confined populations like prisons, nursing homes, or homeless shelters.  But will it be socially disruptive in the broader society?  I have no idea.

I can think of ways it might become disruptive.  It may be some workplaces will have to close down because so many employees fall sick.  How often will that happen with a disease most people recover from after two weeks?  How many businesses will have to shut down for people to perceive a problem?  I have no idea.

But it seems to me the most obvious weak link in the chain is the healthcare system.  That is, after all, the real reason for shutdowns -- to keep the healthcare system from overloading.  Because if the healthcare system overloads, our ability to treat the disease will seriously suffer, and the mortality rate will rise above two percent.  And a healthcare system overloaded dealing with COVID patients will become less able to treat other medical problems as well.

So my guess is that if anything does drive home the point that there is a problem, it will be people starting to be unable to get routine healthcare because the system is overwhelmed with COVID cases.  How many people will that be?  Probably not all that many, but word can get around.  

Of course, in that case most people will probably blame the healthcare system and not the virus.

Whither the Biden Presidency and Why Georgia Matters

Make America Great Again

 Let's face it.  Joe Biden is not going to enact an ambitious agenda, even if by some miracle Democrats win both Senate seats in Georgia.

He just doesn't have the mandate for it.  The American people have made perfectly clear this election that they don't want any sweeping change; they just want everything to go back to normal.  Any measure will face the Senate filibuster, and Joe Manchin has made clear he will not vote to overturn it.

And that is OK, really.  That fact is, Biden's hands will be more than full making America normal again.  He will have to get the COVID vaccine distributed, get the economy up and running once enough people are vaccinated, and offer relief until then.  And that is to say nothing of repairing -- and exposing -- all the damage Trump has done to the executive branch.  That should be more than enough to do.  Reforms can wait -- until a future administration, if necessary.

But even that will call for some degree of cooperation from Congress, and that isn't going to happen if Republicans control the Senate.  

I know some people are so naive as to believe that Biden will be able to work constructively with Senate Republicans.  Biden is, after all, the first real Washington insider elected President since George H.W. Bush, who was generally effective.  His Senate colleagues like him and have worked with him in the past.  This article sets forth why Biden might be better able to work with Senate Republicans than Obama.  Describing Biden's role in the Obama Administration, it makes clear he did not have an Ivy League degree, was "cerebral" and not a wonk.  "Obama always seeking data for the most logical or efficient outcome, while Biden told stories about how a bill would affect the working-class guy in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he was born."  When the Administration reached an impasse with Republicans in Congress, Obama had a tendency to lecture Republicans about why they were wrong that came across as condescending.  Biden accepted that disagreements were normal and was prepared to politic. 

In short, Biden does not have the sort of traits that Republicans find so particularly off-putting.  He knows Senate Republicans well and thinks of them as colleagues to work with.  And if it were only Joe Biden and the Senate, they might come to a reasonable agreement.

But it is not just Biden and the Senate.  It is Biden, the Senate, and the Republican base, who regard Biden's victory as illegitimate and will rush to primary anyone who cooperates with the vile usurper.  And also Mitch McConnell and his discovery that total obstruction, even if it hurts the country -- indeed, especially if it hurts the country -- is politically advantageous.  

And there is almost no limit to what Republicans might do.  Most obviously, one can expect that they will refuse to pass any legislation whatever, except a budget with massive spending cuts.  It seems a safe assumption that they will refuse any COVID relief.  I would not put it past them to refuse even funding for vaccine distribution. It seems a safe assumption that a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm any judicial appointments, and will investigate all possible minutia involving the Biden Administration.  

Admittedly, in really important matters like COVID relief and funding vaccine distribution, there might be a few Republicans (such as Romney, Collins and Murkowski) would would be willing to side with the Democrats, and the filibuster could be evaded by budget reconciliation.  But so long as Republicans hold the majority, Mitch McConnell decides what comes to the floor and could thwart such legislation by not allowing it to come to a vote.

And that is just assuming Republicans will do the same things under a Biden Administration that they did under an Obama Administration.  Given the degree of crazy overtaking the Republican Party these days, it is easy to imagine a Republican Senate doing even worse.

Recall that a federal judge recently struck down actions by President Trump's Acting Secretary of Homeland Security as invalid because he had not been confirmed by the Senate.  Well, suppose the Senate refused to confirm any Biden nominees, in order to prevent him from taking any meaningful executive action.

Or it might refuse to raise the debt ceiling, no matter, no matter what concessions it might extort, and inflict the consequences of a debt ceiling breach.

Or -- well, who knows the depths of Mitch McConnell's evil genius.

In short, it is vitally important for Democrats to control the Senate. It is also most unlikely that they will win both Senate seats in Georgia.  If they win one, maybe they can persuade some relatively sane Republican to switch parties.  (I am thinking of Patrick Toomey, who is retiring at the end of his term and therefore has no career to lose). If they lose both (considered the most likely possibility), I see no way forward.

But if Democrats somehow manage to retake the Senate, I would urge them to use budget reconciliation to do two things.  Pass COVID relief.  And eliminate the debt ceiling altogether.

So, How Does the Post-Election Stack up to Wargaming It

What do you have to lose?

As Donald Trump's desperate rear-guard action against the election continue, I thought I would compare them with the war gaming that attempted to play out what might happen post-election.

So, what can we say?

First of all, some of the worst fears the organizers gamed out have not come about.  In some cases, their worst fears are no longer possible.  Trump has not mobilized the National Guard or the Department of Justice to seize absentee ballots, and the time to do so is past.  So far the contest has played out in the courts, in the certification process, and in informal pseudo-legislative hearings.  Both sides have (mostly) stayed off the streets, although there is still time for that.  

Still, many of the report's predictions are eerily prescient.  It predicted team Trump might take steps such as:

• Calling for recounts in all states in which victory was not already apparent. [Done]
• Launching coordinated investigations at the state and federal levels into alleged “voting irregularities” in an effort to undermine public confidence in results that did not go Trump’s way and/or alter the results. [Attempted]
• Attempting to halt the counting of mail-in ballots by filing cases in state court or leaning on Republican leaders to stop vote counting or to certify a result early, without waiting for the certified results from the Secretary of State. [Done, though not successful]
• Turning out their well-organized and committed base to take to the streets in Trump’s favor, in part by disseminating disinformation about the danger posed by pro-Biden demonstrators (e.g., by suggesting likely Antifa violence, etc.). [Not done on a significant scale so far, except for one protest in Washington DC]
• Relying on both FOX News and right-wing social media to echo and amplify pro-Trump messages and facilitate the harassment and bullying of election officials, to cause chaos and delay and/or to intimidate officials into taking actions that benefited Team Trump. [Done, but not successfully in terms of changing results].
• Using federal agencies to justify or support Trump campaign tactics. In one of the more aggressive moves undertaken in one of the TIP exercises, Team Trump had Attorney General Bill Barr order the seizure of mail-in ballots to ensure that vote counting would stop.  [Not done].

It also correctly anticipated that most Republican officials, at least in Congress, would go along with this.

The war games played out four scenarios -- ambiguous outcome, Trump win, narrow Biden win and decisive Biden win.  Clearly the first two can be ruled out now.  Biden has won.  The report did not define "clear win" versus "narrow win," although its definition of a narrow win appears to have been by 1% or less of the popular vote and about 278 electoral votes. 

The report predicted that in case of a clear Biden win, the Trump campaign would allege massive fraud and call for federal investigations, with support by Republican officials.  The Trump campaign and Republican officials would call on the media to cast doubt on the outcomes, but would not try to get state legislatures to override the popular vote, or seek to thwart vote counting.  After that attempt failed, the Trump campaign would change the focus to damage control -- through pardons, securing business contracts, installing loyalists in key government positions, and hindering the transition.  Nonetheless, Team Biden moved forward with the transition and began outreach to Republicans with modest success.

In case of a narrow Biden win, the report predicted that Fox News would call the win, but Team Trump would not concede it  Instead it would successfully persuade the Michigan and Pennsylvania legislatures to appoint pro-Trump slates of electors. challenge the legitimacy of the election, launch a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation, and spread rumors that Biden had a heart attack.  Mitt Romney would persuade three other Republican Senators to announce Biden as the winner. The Biden Campaign would take to the streets and the military would leak that it intended to support the election outcome.  Right wing media would step up the lies and attempts to intimidate Biden electors.  Trump would issue pardons and leave the White House only upon the threat of being evicted by force.

It seems to me that what we have gotten so far is somewhere in between what the report predicted for a clear Biden victory and what the report predicted for a narrow Biden victory.  The Trump campaign has sued to overturn the result, without success, and has sought to stop vote counts and persuade state legislatures to appoint pro-Trump electors all (so far) without success.  William Barr has launched an investigation of electoral fraud and not found it.  Fox has called the election for Biden and is facing mass defections to OANN and Newsmax, which are behaving about the way the report predicted.  The number of Republican Senators recognizing a Biden victory is about what the report expected.  But no rival electors have been appointed (so far) and the contest has stayed off the streets (so far).  The pardons are beginning.

David Frum was one of the participants and sheds more light on what to anticipate for the weeks ahead.  Electors are certified on December 8.  They vote on December 14.  Congress certifies the result on January 6.  The inauguration takes place January 20.  Frum reports that the participants saw December 8 as the cutoff date:  "Generally, once we got past the December 8 date, the Trump team’s options for keeping power dwindled to zero. What was left then was scorched-earth self-enrichment, self-protection, and spite."  This was based on the assumption that neither Congress nor Mike Pence (as presiding officer) would decline to certify the electoral vote.  

This may prove optimistic. Judges, conservative ones included, have held firm in denying Trump challenges.  State election officials, including (most) Republicans, have upheld the vote.  State legislatures have only had to duck for cover and avoid taking a stand.  Most Congressional Republicans have been doing that too.  But when the Electoral College vote is presented, Congressional Republicans will have no choice but to stand up and be counted.  Team Trump's last ditch pan is for Republicans in Congress to refuse to certify the results.  And, in fairness to Congressional Republicans, if they refuse to certify the results, they will not be doing anything Congressional Democrats have not done before.

My guess -- probably most Congressional Republicans will vote not to certify, abstain, or skip the vote.  But enough will join the Democrats to certify Joe Biden as the next President.