Will There Be a Secondary COVID Outbreak?

Will there be a secondary COVID outbreak?

Yes.

Every other country that has opened up (or suppressed the disease without closing) has had secondary outbreaks, so I see not reason to believe we will be an exception.

The question is how bad it will be.  I have no idea.

But I can make a few more predictions.

The vast majority of seemingly risky activity will not lead to secondary outbreaks.  All we go well -- until it doesn't.

Sooner or later something will lead to a secondary outbreak.  (Or multiple outbreaks).   No one has any way of foreseeing what will lead to the secondary outbreak, or when or where.  (Riots and demonstrations are a good candidate, though).

The real question will be whether we have a good enough test-and-trace system in place by then to suppress the outbreak quickly.  And whether we have learned enough about what is and is not safe to do so without too much disruption.  I am optimistic on the second question.

I have no idea about the first.

Miscellaneous Comments on the Riots

Things that I condemn (all at once)

Racism

Police brutality

The needless and senseless killing of George Floyd

Rioting, burning, looting and vandalism

Blocking traffic as protest tactic

Excess force in response to riots

Inflaming anger

Police armed, dressed, looking, and acting like an occupying army

Private citizens armed, dressed, looking and acting like a private army

(Private armies in general)

Things that I applaud

Reports of police calming protests by conciliatory actions.

Things I unhappily condone

Curfews, martial law, and summoning the National Guard to maintain order when nothing else works.  In Minneapolis in particular, the police clearly are not going to be able to calm the situation by conciliatory action, so there is little choice but to resort to force.  And, much as I hate to say it, I do agree with Donald Trump that the authorities there should have acted two days earlier.

Stiff penalties for rioters.  Letting riots go unpunished just encourages them.

Things I regard with deep skepticism

Reports of outside agitators, left or right.  I do not deny the possibility that such agitators exist, but usually people who blame outside agitators are ones who don't want to admit just how bad things are in their communities.

Black Lives Matter is a just cause, but it can't control its rowdy element.  Until it can, it should stay off the streets and find some other way to protest.  Come to think of it, they should stay off the streets anyhow, in light of corona virus.  Evidence is growing that non-crowded outdoors activities are safe, and that even crowds may be safe if all persons wear masks are are generally inactive.  But shouting, chanting and cheering in crows is most definitely not safe. 

Further thoughts

These riots are really, really bad.  We haven't seen anything like them since the 1960's.  And by this I mean, nothing so widespread.

Yes, there were riots in Ferguson and Baltimore four years ago.  But they were mild, short-lived, and localized.  Activists made a concerted effort to restrain the riots, with some success.  There were also the Rodney King riots of 1992, which were worse than anything we have seen so far this time.  But the Rodney King riots were a local phenomenon and did not spread all over the country.  To see multiple riots breaking out all across the US, you would have to go back to the 1960's. 

The duration is also alarming.

Why now?  Seriously, why were there minor, highly localized riots in Ferguson and Baltimore, then no riots for four years, and suddenly much worse riots, and much more widespread? 

I don't think it is outside agitators.  Nor can we blame social media.  After all, there were social media at the time of the mild and localized Baltimore and Ferguson riots but not when the 1960's riots broke out all over the country.

Is it Trump's fault?  I suppose his inflammatory remarks, together with the difference between hopeful protesters who see Washington as an ally and despairing protesters who see Washington as an enemy may have made some difference.  But I don't think you can blame it all on Trump.

Economic conditions?  Possible, I suppose. 

The very recent anti-lockdown protests?  Note that those did NOT escalate into violence, but neither did the protesters pretend that they were heavily armed because their intentions were so peaceful.  The threat of violence if they didn't get their way was definitely there.  Maybe resentment that white people could get away with it was a factor.

Are right wingers justified in claiming media bias?  After all, treatment of the anti-lockdown protests was markedly hostile and warned against further corona virus outbreaks.  Outbreaks of disease got a lot less emphasis this time, and much of the media was initially sympathetic to the protesters and more outrages and police actions and Donald Trump's inflammatory tweets than vandalism, looting, and arson.  I also thought it somewhat annoying to hear that "protests" were breaking out when what was really breaking out were riots.  Yes, the riots were offshoots of larger protests, but the distinction should be made.

On the other hands, reports of damage and fires are mincing no words.  And when the governor of Minnesota and mayor of Minneapolis claimed that most people being arrested were outsiders, new media investigated the claim, found it to be false, and said so.

I think what we are really seeing, both in alarms over reopening causing further outbreaks and in reports on the riots is above all a sensationalism bias.  Nothing new there.

And finally does this help Trump?  After all, riots go a long way toward promoting a law and order message.  And there is the usual rally-round-the-chief effect in times of crisis.  I am inclined to think this does help Trump, though he can easily overplay his hand and have it backfire. 

Now It's Rand Paul

Maybe I need to make a new label for beards.  Rand Paul is the latest addition.

Rand Paul without beard

Rand Paul with beard

COVID-19: A Personal Account

Wow!  It has been a long time since I did a post.  Not just in the sense that it has been a month and a half, but that it has been a long, eventful month and a half.

So, when did I start taking COVID-19 seriously?  Obviously not during December or January, while the impeachment was going on.  I think I can be excused for that.  Most Americans were not paying attention at the time.  I would say I started becoming conscious of the outbreak some time in February.  I started becoming concerned in late February and early March.  And it overwhelmed everything else in mid-March.

Looking at my blog posts, none up till now so much as mention COVID-19.  For February I have one post on the popularity of beards in male leaders, and one mocking quiz on real American-ness.  My sole post for March is about the primary (remember that?).

I have heard the recommendation that you keep a Corona Virus journal, but that is too late for me.  Nonetheless, looking through work logs, I can piece together something like a chronology of growing awareness that this was a problem.

During February, China was in lockdown, and Donald Trump was saying this was the latest hoax to make him look bad, that the virus would disappear in April, that we had 15 cases and would soon be down to zero, and that we had it contained.  It seemed obvious to me that China was not going to shut down large portions of its economy just to make Trump look bad, but at the same time, I was thinking of the disease as an economic, rather than a public health, issue.  Clearly there was going to be economic disruption as a result of disrupted supply chains, but I still thought of the disease itself as something that was happening to China.  But the US economy continued to boom and the stock market seemed unconcerned. 

On the weekend of February 15-16 (based on looking back through accounts), Japan recorded a 6% year-over-year decline in its economy -- comparable to the worst quarter in 2009.  I read that in the news and thought that the stock market would drop the following week (February 17-21).  It did, but not as much, I thought, as the situation warranted.  The following week (February 24-28), the stock market did start taking the situation seriously, and did seriously drop. 

Some time around then, probably February 23, I had dinner with my aunt and welcomed the respite from the general grimness.  On February 27, I met with a new client.  We shook hands at the end of the meeting and he commented that shaking hands might  not be safe much longer.

On either February 23 or March 1, an epidemiologist in my Shakespeare reading group (it meets on Sundays) warned us to wash our hands thoroughly, and to keep them away from our faces.  She recommended hand sanitizer, but other members said that it was nowhere to be found.  She said soap was good enough. 

On one of those days, I went to a laundromat because my apartment laundry room was not working.  I passed the time waiting for my laundry by reading the newspaper and saw the shocking news that the South Korean city of Daegu was locked down, just like China. That was when the news hit home for me that this outbreak was not confined to China; it was spreading.  Other people at the laundromat also started discussing the outbreak, and they were all alarmed.  One proposed that we drop nuclear weapons on the affected areas!  Another suggested that this was a bioweapon that the Chinese had released to get rid of their old people.  And the attendant said that if the outbreak hit here, she was quitting her job and staying home.  She also said that an epidemiologist had been by and warned that we had no idea how bad it would be.

It seemed unduly alarmist to me, but that was when I started taking a lockdown seriously.  As in "I know it won't happen here, but -- ."  I feared a Wuhan style shutdown, with everyone completely confined to their homes, not even being allowed to go walking or to the laundry room.  Would I be locked inside, washing my clothes in the sink?  South Koreans were told not to venture out without a mask.  Would I not even be allowed to open the window to let my cats out?  That could be painful.  Would people with dogs not even be allowed to walk them?  What would happen to the homeless?

Nonetheless, I marked February 29-March 1 with a Facebook post wishing everyone a happy leapday and showing one baby goat jumping over another. 

On March 1, I bought a pair of sports sandals.  On March 2, I went on my first fear-based buying binge.  I bought cat food, kitty litter, toilet paper, Kleenex, soap, shampoo, house cleaners, latex gloves, and lots of rubbing alcohol.  Hand sanitizer, and Clorox and Lysol cleaners had vanished from the shelves.  About the same time, I ask the bank that has my business account about getting online banking.

March 6, my first Covid related post on Facebook.  I repeat an account giving New Mexico advice on hand washing.  Wash your hand like you just peeled a sack of green chiles and have to take out your contact lenses.  (As anyone who has touched their eyes after peeling chiles knows, it hurts. 

On March 8, I publish the cartoon above.  I also show it to the epidemiologist at our Shakespeare group, but she doesn't get it.

March 10, I am at work planning a Sunday Scottish dance in Santa Fe.

March 11, FOLKMADS (my square and contra dancing group) announces that it is cancelling it scheduled April 4 ball at St. John's College because the college is shut down.  Other events are still on.  A client comes in and shakes hands at the end of the meeting.  I am conscious that we should not be doing that.

March 12, FOLKMADS cancels all events up through the end of April.  International dancing also cancels until further notice.  A member of our Scottish dance group suggests that we cancel.  Another dismissed the idea as "hysteria."  I propose a middle ground.  We are a small group, so let's meet this week, reconsider each week.  Weight Watchers sends out a notice assuring everyone that meetings are safe.

March 12, I have an eviction hearing in the town of Bernalillo.  Between an upset stomach, heavy traffic slowed by road construction, and just plain procrastination, I arrive late.  The courtroom is crowded, as it usually is on eviction days.  The judge has dismissed the case because of my late arrival, but allows me to move the court to reopen.  I move the court to reopen.

March 13, New Mexico public schools shut down. A client comes in and exchanges an elbow bump instead of a handshake.  Sunday Scottish dance in Santa Fe cancelled.  Scottish dancing for that night is on.  I go to a restaurant near work, conscious that doing so is a reckless indulgence.  Everyone in the restaurant is talking about the virus.  As I walk through the neighborhood, everyone out of their houses shows a sort of grim sense of uncertainty.  Even a homeless man tells me to stay safe.  When I arrive, it turns out the meeting hall has cancelled dance.  We all sit around for a while, say our farewells, and go home.  The member who dismissed the whole matter as hysteria says that she is going to a restaurant.

March 14 (Saturday), I attend a Weight Watchers meeting, and then go out on another buying binge.  I buy a vinyl sheet to cover our conference room table and make it easier to clean. (I also buy a new rolling mat and new earbuds, not because of Covid, but just because the old ones are wearing out).  By the end of the day, Weight Watchers sends out an announcement that all workshops will be online from now on.  Just a few weeks earlier we were joking about what we would do if the meeting was not available.  Indivisibles (a political, anti-Trump meeting) announces that future meetings will by by Zoom.

March 16 (Monday)  we celebrate my 70 year-old assistant's birthday with pizza and ice cream.  One client cancels a will signing, concerned about contagion.  Another client, a doctor, has a surgery cancel, and holds a will signing on the same day.  I go to Metropolitan (small claims) court and find that filings are now being taken outdoors and guards are restricting who may come in.

March 18, restaurant dining rooms, health clubs, movie theaters, malls, and flea markets are closed.

March 19, mediator who is scheduled for mediation on April 9 offers teleconference as an alternative.  My boss makes clear that he intends to appear in person.

March 23, I attend an eviction hearing in Albuquerque.  Guards outside are asking about symptoms before letting anyone in.  Very few people are allowed in the courtroom at a time.  The tenant does not show up.  The judge grants an eviction, postpones it till March 10 because of the emergency.  Shelter-in-place order issued.  All non-essential businesses are to close.  My boss makes clear that he is not closing.  Our firm is too small to matter.

March 24, New Mexico Supreme Court announce that enforcement of eviction will be stayed if the tenant can prove inability to pay.  About this time my assistant starts working from home.

March 26, rehearing of the eviction in Bernalillo.  Traffic is much lighter.  Only five people are allowed into the courtroom at once.  Judge enters order of eviction but stays.  She makes clear that she is automatically staying all evictions for non-payment.  Do I feel bad for letting my client down or good for not throwing a vulnerable person out on the street?

March 27, a client comes in to sign a will.  We hold the signing in the lobby as roomier and better ventillated than the conference room.

March 30, rehearing on the Albuquerque eviction.  This time it is held by telephone.  Again the tenant does not show up.  The judge denies, makes clear he requires actual proof of inability to pay before he will stay eviction.  A scheduled mediation is moved from the mediator's office to a teleconference.

April 3, I start working from home.

April 9, I come to the office for the scheduled mediation.  Otherwise I am not much use, since I am working from home.

April 13, a second rehearing of the eviction.  Judge says the tenant clearly does not have the ability to pay and orders the eviction.  I have misgivings about that.  I go to the sheriff's office and find them closed. 

April 14, I go to sheriff's office, call, and am admitted.  Employees are wearing masks.

This is a personal chronology of everything going from normal to very, very strange. 

Memo to New Organizations on Super Tuesday

Memo to all news organizations on Super Tuesday:

Please stop talking about which state any particular candidate "won." 

I get that the Electoral College is winner-take-all, so winning a state is a thing.

I get that the Republican primary also works that way.

But the Democratic primary is not winner-take-all.  It is proportionate. 

Winning a state can make sense to some degree if just one state is voting.  But when numerous states are voting on the same day, winning any particular state is meaningless.  It is the total delegate count that matters.

Real American-ness Quiz

All right, since there seems to be a general consensus that not all US citizens are Real Americans, and that even those that are are not all equally Real, let's run a quiz to test everyone's Real American-ness.

Question 1:  Are you a US Citizen.
If so, give yourself 50 points so we can all start out on an equal basis.  Non-citizens obviously need not apply.

Question 2:  Are you naturalized?
Is so, subtract 50 points.  Only the natural born start on an equal footing.  But never fear, this is America, so you can overcome that disadvantage if you score well on the rest of this quiz.

Question 3:  Where do you live?

a.  New York to DC Corridor.  Subtract 1,000 points.  You are automatically disqualified.  No one who lives in the New York to DC Corridor can ever be a Real American.

b.  Massachusetts, Rhode Island or Connecticut.  Subtract 30 points.  This is almost part of the New York to DC Corridor, but we will give you a chance because you definitely got neglected in the Hurricane Sandy coverage.  (Remember that?).

c.  West Coast.  Subtract 20 points.

d.  New Hampshire or Vermont.  Subtract 10 points.

e.  Maine.  Subtract 5 points.

f.  A historical Confederate state, other than West Texas, Florida, or that parts of Virginia that are really DC suburbs.  Add 5 points.  Not as bad as New England or the West Coast, but that secession business makes you suspect.

g.  A Southwest state, including West Texas.  Add 5 points.  Too Hispanic.

h.  An interior mountain state.  Add 10 points.

i.  A non-Confederate part of Greater Appalachia.  Add 20 points.

j.  A Midwest or Rust Belt state.  Add 30 points.  Congratulations!  You live in the Heartland, the most Real American part of the country. 

k.  Florida.  As the rest of the country knows, there is no accounting for Florida.  Roll the dice on this one.  Then flip a coin to see whether your roll should be added or subtracted.

Question 4:  Do you hang out in diners?

a.  Yes.  Add 10 points. 

b.  No.  Subtract 10 points.

Question 5:  What size town do you live in?

a.  Three million and up.  Subtract 30 points.

b.  One million to three million.  Subtract 20 points.

c.  One million to 500,000.  Subtract 10 points.

e.  500,000 to 100,000.  Zero points.

f.  100,000 to 50,000.  Add 15 points.

g.  Less than 50,000.  Add 30 points.

h.  I don't live in an incorporated town.  Add 5 points and quit showing off.

Question 6:  What ethnic group do you belong to.

a.  White.  Add 10 points.

b.  Black or Native American.  Zero points.  You have been around a long time, so you can be forgiven.

c.  Hispanic or Asian.  Subtract 10 points.

d.  Other.  Subtract 20 points.

Subtract 5 points for each grandparent who was not born in the US.

Question 7:  What religion are you.

a.  Evangelical Christian or Catholic.  Add 10 points.

b.  None.  Add 10 points.  Come on.  You never see religion in 1950's sitcoms, so it must be OK.

c.   Mainline Protestant.  Add 5 points.

d.  Jewish.  Zero points.

e.  Eastern Orthodox.  Subtract 5 points.

f.  Other, or atheist.  Subtract 20 points.

Question 8:  What is your education level.

a.  High school dropout.  Zero points.  What did I tell you about showing off?

b.  High school graduate.  Add 20 points.

c.  Community college or trade school.  Add 20 points.  Nothing to be ashamed of.

d.  Some college.  Add 5 points.

e.  Four-year degree.  Subtract 10 points.

f.  Graduate degree.  Subtract 15 points.

Question 9:  For men: What job to you aspire to.  For women: What job does your husband or boyfriend aspire to.  (Your actual job can be forgiven, but you must aspire to an authentic job to be considered authentically Real American).

a.  Small business owner (any kind).  Add 30 points.

b.  Manufacturing.  Add 30 points

c.  Military, police, or fire department.  Add 20 points.

d.  Construction, home repairs, or auto mechanic.  Add 10 points.  That's OK, but a bit Hispanic, so be careful.

e.  Farming.  Add 5 points.  You really don't believe what I said about showing off, do you.

f.  High school teacher.  Zero points.

g.  Tech.  Subtract 5 points.

h.  Office work.  Subtract 10 points.

i.  Services, other than above.  Subtract 15 points.

j.  Learned professions.  Subtract 20 points.

k.  Government, not counting military, police, fire, and high school teacher.  Subtract 30 points and consider yourself a traitor.

Question 10:  Are you a NASCAR fan.

a.  Yes.  Add 10 points.

b.  No.  Subtract 10 points.

c.  What's NASCAR?  Subtract 20 points.

Add 3 points for each gun you own up to five, and one point for each gun after that.

Add up the score and good news.  Even if it is a minus, you can be a somewhat real American so long as you don't live in the New York to DC Corridor. 

You just won't be as real.

Beards: It Isn't Just Right Wingers These Days

What, so Rush Limbaugh has a beard now, too?  As with Ted Cruz and Alex Jones, I would call it an improvement.

Rush Limbaugh with beard

Rush Limbaugh without beard

And is it my imagination, or does Alex Jones resemble Rush Limbaugh (at least without their respective beards)?

Alex Jones

And while I am at it, I might as well mention Glenn Beck, who has opted for a professorial look, complete with beard.

Glenn Beck with beard

Glenn Beck without beard

But it is been brought to my attention that it isn't just right wing men who are growing beards these days, and not just men who  look better the less of their face they show.



Justin Trudeau has a beard.

Justin Trudeau without beard

Justin Trudeau is generally considered handsome, but I must say there is something round and soft about his face, that a beard gives more character to.

Justin Trudeau with beard

And now Beto O'Rourk has a beard.

Beto O'Rourk with beard

Beto O'Rourk without beard

I suppose it is supposed to make him look less boyish, but I still think he looks kind of boyish.