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| Pete Hegseth |
Clearly one has been defeated -- Matt Gaetz, formerly of the House of Representatives, who managed to incur the hatred of all his colleagues.
At least four others are highly controversial -- Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense, Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence, RFK, Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Kash Patel for Director of the FBI, which is not actually a Cabinet post. And after the latest dustup, Russ Vought of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has presumably made some enemies.
It is customary for the Senate to approve most of the President's Cabinet picks, but to reject one just to show they can. To reject four (or five, let alone six!) is unheard of. Of course, most Presidents do not make such outrageous pic In this case the Senate has claimed their scalp -- Matt Gaetz for Attorney General. That is all good so far as it goes. Is there any chance they would reject any of the others?
My impression at the outset was that Hegseth -- by far the most dangerous because he is the only one who could actually launch a coup -- was a shoe-in to win. Allegations of sexual assault threatened to sink his candidacy at the outset, not because anyone in the Trump Administration cares about sexual assault, of course, but because they were angry that he had not told them. But, it appears, when Hegseth hit back and said he had been defamed by the liberal media he won Trump's heart. Trump made clear that confirming him was a test of party loyalty, so in the end only Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitch McConnell -- one from Maine, one from a state that uses ranked choice voting, and one not running for reelection -- voted no. Probably not by coincidence, that was just short of enough to defeat the nomination. The Senate split 50-50 and JD Vance broke the tie.*
I considered RFK, Jr. to be the most likely to be defeated. After all, his basic ideology is out of sync with Republicans. He favors abortion, greater regulation of agriculture, and banning high fructose corn syrup (a serious loser in Iowa!). Bill Cassidy, chairman of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, is a doctor, which does not dispose him well to RFK, Jr. He also voted to convict on the second Trump impeachment. But he is also up for election in 2026. Mitch McConnell is a childhood polio survivor and seems a strong bet to vote against an anti-vaxer. So I guess we will see.
Currently Tulsi Gabbard seems the most likely to be defeated. National security conservatives don't trust her, and she has not shown any of Hegseth's combativeness, so there is a serious possibility she may be rejected. That seems a shame because she actually looks like the least bad of the big four (five? six?). Sure, she is totally unqualified for the post, and her politics are certifiably flaky. But I see no sign of disloyalty, either in the sense of being a foreign agent or of being subversive of the constitutional order.
Kash Patel is the second most dangerous after Hegseth. As director of the FBI, he will not be in a position to launch a coup, but he will be able to prosecute Trump's enemies, all in the guise -- of course -- of fighting "weaponization" of government. Prosecution is not as bad as a coup. Trump's enemies will have the protection of the need to charge an actual crime, an independent judiciary, and trial by jury, presumably in Washington, DC. So naturally I expect him to be a shoe-in for confirmation. I have no idea if any Republicans will vote against him. Hell, even John Fetterman seems to be leaning toward confirmation. All that is very bad, but not as bad as Hegseth.
The recent budget freeze just might generate some controversy over another nominee -- Russ Vought of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The OMB is a small (under 800 employees), but powerful agency in charge of ensuring that agency reports, rules, testimony, and proposed legislation are consistent with the president's budget and administration policies. The OMB will be responsible for overseeing Schedule F -- the firing of numerous career federal employees and their replacement with dogmatic ideologues. The OMB was also responsible for the recent freeze of all federal grants. Someone commented that its willingness to take such a radical action before Vought was even confirmed as director suggests that he has no fears about confirmation. And, indeed, Congressional Republicans all appear to have defended the freeze, so I imagine they will all vote to confirm. If the freeze had gone one a few days longer, I suspect it might have been a different story. I will dare hope, at least, that after having inflicted such a debacle on the Trump Administration, The Donald will reign him in somewhat.
*Why are there 100 Senators if Marco Rubio has been appointed Secretary of State? Apparently his replacement has already been sworn in.
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