A lot has certainly happened this time! Is this one unusually active, or have I just forgotten what other ones were like? The other obvious question is whether and to what extent the election of Donald Trump is responsible for events (good and bad) that have happened while awaiting his inauguration. My honest belief is that not everything is about us and most of what has happened is unrelated to who is in the White House. But let's look these events over one by one.
The stock market has been choppy, surging and then dropping: I think this one is about Donald Trump. He is inspiring a lot of hopes and fears. I also do not believe that the short term gyrations of the stock market are very important. It is the overall trend that matters.
The economy continues to boom and inflation has not fallen as much as people hoped: I don't think this is about who is in the White House. One thing that the prospect of a Trump Administration may be affecting is interest rates. Interest rates do appear to be rising out of concern over tariffs, mass deportation, and budget-busting tax cuts.
Bird flu is back and is affecting dairy cattle: Clearly the virus neither knows nor cares who is in the White House. However, I do think MAGA in general and Trump in particular have contributed to making this worse than necessary by making any sort of public health measure politically toxic. Without such resistance to pubic health, we could probably have handled the outbreak better. Fortunately, there does not appear to be just risk of a pandemic among humans, just higher egg and dairy prices. Touch a hot stove and all that.
The president of South Korea declared martial law and attempted a coup but was thwarted: I don't think Trump is to blame for this. Yes, the election of a US President who attempted a coup in the past may have slightly encouraged Yoon to think he could get away with it, but not everything is about us. Internal South Korea politics were the main factor here.
Assassination of a health insurance CEO: Trump is in no way to blame
Overthrow of the Assad government in Syria: Has nothing to do with Trump, who was as much taken by surprise as anyone else. It is too early to even to tell whether this should be considered "credit" or "blame." In any case, I do like Trump's advice on this -- not our business; let's stay out!
ISIS-inspired terrorist drove into a crowd of New Years revelers: Nothing to do with who is in the White House.
A deranged Trump supporter blew up a Tesla vehicle in front of a Trump hotel: This one is just plain weird. When someone blows up vehicle manufactured by a politician's number one financial supporter in front of a hotel owned by the politician, most people would not expect it to be a statement of support! But apparently it was. Anyhow, Trump is certainly not to blame for this bizarre form of self-expression. This was primarily one man's pathology. But the crazy precincts of the internet that Trump and Musk promote had a role in setting the direction of his pathology.
Devastating wild fires around Los Angeles: Of course, Trump is in no way to blame for the fires. But he has been politicizing the event in the most shameful manner. Look for the politicization to get worse once he is in office.
Israel makes a ceasefire, first with Hezbollah and then with Hamas: I think Trump deserves at least some credit here. Quite simply, he has more pull with Netanyahu than either Biden or Harris do and is able to ask for a favor. What would have happened if he had lost is anyone's guess.
And now TikTok: TikTok appears to be putting pressure in Trump -- he can either get credit for saving TikTok or blame for failing to save it.**
Let us just say that the mere act of electing Trump clearly has not made problems go away! We will see what happens once he is in office.
*It used to be worse. The inauguration did not used take place on March 4 -- approximately four months after the election. This proved a serious problem in case of crisis. James Buchanan's failure to respond to the secession of South Carolina encouraged a whole cascade of other secessions, and the extended inaction between the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations contributed to a serious banking crisis.
**Yes, I know that the legislation passed and TikTok went dark under Biden. Trump has benefitted from voters having short memories. They forgot the disaster that was his last year in office and blamed residual problems on Biden. Well, TikTok going dark happened in the last two days of Biden being in office. If it doesn't go back on, it won't take too long for Trump to be blamed.
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