Checking Up on Signs that Trump's Power May be Waning

 

So, with the midterm elections merely weeks away, let me check up on my signs that Trump's power may be waning.

1. Media outlets bought by Trump allies are willing to criticize or oppose him:  No real change from CBS is a mixed bag.  60 Minutes seems to be tamed, but CBS has done a stunning expose of the damage to US bases in the Iran war.
2. State Republicans defy Trump.  Cheers to Indiana Republicans for standing up to Trump and not gerrymandering.  What a shame it cost them the primaries.  But as Trump's popularity sinks, more and more Republicans are running from him.
3. Republicans in Congress splinter and Trump cannot bring them into line: Johnson has sent the House into recess to keep it from voting.
4. Attempts to target opposing organizations through taxes or RICO are thrown out, or never materialize:  Some very disturbing developments.
5. Universities, high power law firms, and other institutions targeted by Trump start consistently defying him:  Not sure.
6. The Supreme Court makes a meaningful attempt to reign Trump in: A mixed bag.
7. Democrats win control of the House and Trump cannot stop them:  Stay tuned.
8. Democrats win control of the Senate and Trump cannot stop them: Stay tuned.
9. Growing numbers of state and local jurisdictions reject cooperation with ICE, putting more strain on the organization:  Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger has withdrawn the State Police from ICE cooperation.  The Virginia Legislature has passed legislation limiting local cooperation.  Not much, but at least a little.  It is why I am so closely watching elections for governor in Florida and Texas.  I realized the legislatures of those two states are out of reach, but Governors can at least stop the State Police from working with ICE.  And in Florida, the Governor could stop removing local officials for not working with ICE.
10. ICE starts losing personnel faster than it can recruit them and begins shrinking: No.  ICE is ramping up operations again.
11. Big money interests start standing up to him:  To some degree, I think.
12. Trump supporters stop making death threats and harassment against people who he criticizes:  Ain't gonna happen.

Obviously, we are mostly waiting on numbers 7 and 8, which will make a huge difference.  I am also starting to think that maybe we should start looking instead at which institutions are most likely to defy Trump. As we ascend up the ladder, it will show which ones will be the last to turn against Trump if his power diminishes -- and which will be first and last to fall in line if he consolidates power.

1. Federal trial and appellate judges (With us!  Yay!)
2. Small, local organizations that can fly under the federal radar screen (a mixed bag, obviously, but able to defy Trump if they want to).
3. Media outlets (Yes, they still tend to "both sides" things, but Trump hates the media so much for a reason)
4. Large organizations like universities or law firms (?)
5. Republicans outside of Congress (quite heroic in 2020, being taken over by election deniers, but also starting to distance themselves from Trump).
6. Big money interests (?)
7. The Supreme Court (A few attempts to reign Trump in, but mostly in his pocket)
8. Republicans in Congress (Cowards!)
9. The Deep State, i.e., federal bureaucracy, aside from ICE and Border Patrol (under his control so in a difficult spot)
10. ICE and Border Patrol (won't defy him; we can only hope they fade away)
11. The digital mob (hopeless)