About That Southern Poverty Law Center Indictment . . . .

 

In all honesty, I was starting to feel ready to declare victory in the Charlie Kirk matter and say that it had not, after all, turned out to be our Reichstag Fire moment.  No political opponents or organizations had been charged.  People fired in the wake of the assassination were starting to sue to get their jobs back.  Instead of a government attempt to bring down the Great Leftwing Conspiracy that killed Charlie Kirk, rightwing conspiracists were pointing the finger at each other.

Oh, yes, and Ed Martin was fired from the "Weaponization Working Group," supposedly for failing to do any actual weaponization.  At the time (February 2) the report was that it was supposed to get results within two months.  Well, two months have passed and all it has produced is a report criticizing the Biden Administration for prosecuting protesters blocking access to abortion clinics.  And then there was the prosecution of anti-ICE protesters who really did set off fireworks outside an ICE facility and shoot a police officer.  Some have complained about over-charging.  I was less concerned because (1) there really was a crime and (2) like it or not, federal over-charging is nothing new.  Don't bring guns and fireworks to a protest seems like a sound rule to me.

Well, just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water, the Administration released an indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center for paying informants in the groups it was investigating.  It seems at least plausible that the Law Center identifying Turning Point USA as an extremist group may have been a factor in the decision to indict.  Honestly, most critics I have read about the indictment are dismissing it as propaganda, to justify the far right marchers in Charlottesville.  I am inclined to think it is more for two reasons.  One is that this may be just the beginning.  Other such indictments may be coming.  The other is that the purpose of this indictment is obvious -- to chill any other organization that may express views the Administration dislikes.

Anyhow, back to the signs that Trump's power may be waning:

1. Media outlets bought by Trump allies are willing to criticize or oppose him:  CBS continues to run worthwhile stories on Trump, as do the Los Angeles Times and the Washington Post, so I am hopeful on this score.
2. State Republicans defy Trump.  No real change from last time.
3. Republicans in Congress splinter and Trump cannot bring them into line: This clearly happened on the SAVE Act.  It may be happening on funding as well.
4. Attempts to target opposing organizations through taxes or RICO are thrown out, or never materialize:  The latest indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center is a bad sign.
5. Universities, high power law firms, and other institutions targeted by Trump start consistently defying him:  Not much changed from last time.
6. The Supreme Court makes a meaningful attempt to reign Trump in:  He lost on the National Guard and tariffs, although he keeps threatening to ignore the tariffs decision.  Prospects on birthright citizenship do not look good.
7. Democrats win control of the House and Trump cannot stop them:  Too early to say, obviously.  But Trump acknowledging that the President's party tends to lose during midterms may be an encouraging sign.
8. Democrats win control of the Senate and Trump cannot stop them: Ditto.
9. Growing numbers of state and local jurisdictions reject cooperation with ICE, putting more strain on the organization:  No.  This might happen after midterms, but not before.
10. ICE starts losing personnel faster than it can recruit them and begins shrinking: No.
11. Big money interests start standing up to him:  Anthropic has, anyhow.
12. Trump supporters stop making death threats and harassment against people who he criticizes:  Maybe I should drop this one because there are just too many crazies out there.