Shutdown Over ICE: The Politics

 

This shutdown is different.  With the last shutdown, I thought the Democrats should cave because they were better off politically losing than winning.  While I agree with JV Last that the real issue is power, not policy, I also think the Democrats did pretty well on power in an understated sort of way. 

Trump (backed by Russ Vought) intended the shutdown as a major power grab to enact major firings of federal employees and funding of projects in a manner calculated to be punitive to Democrats.  The power grab failed and appears to have soured Republicans in general and Trump in particular on shutdowns.  Senate Republicans preserved the filibuster, against Trump's wishes, giving Democrats the opportunity to use this weapon again.  And the politics of the shutdown were good.  It brought the issue of health insurance subsidies to the public's attention and made clear that Republicans were to blame for spiking premiums.  Granted, the wins on matters of power were purely defensive, i.e., they thwarted power grabs rather than grabbing any power back.  But I do not think public opinion would have backed Democrats using shutdown to leverage a power grab.

This time is different.

This time is clearly, unambiguously about power -- specifically, the power of La Migra to terrorize blue cities into submission.  It is understood that way on all sides.  It is also something that is clear as videos of violence in the city, and not a mere abstraction.  And it is one where Democrats have no choice but to take a stand.  Their base demands it.  Their own cities could be next if ICE is not stopped.  And public opinion is generally in their favor.  Some left-leaning pollesters have even claimed that this is a 70-30 issue in the Democrats' favor.  Actually, it looks more like 50-30 against ICE, with about 20% of the population undecided.  Democrats have the opportunity to sway more people in their favor by going all out publicizing ICE outrages.  Of course, Republicans are also seeking to sway public opinion.  This is something that could to 50-50, 70-30, or maybe 60-40.  Which way it goes will be immensely important.

Timid-minded advisors warn not to go all-in on immigration or we will lose.  I suppose I have two answers to that.  One is that Congressional Democrats have an obvious response.  They can say that immigration is a side issue.  The real issue is whether masked thugs should be allowed to terrorize US cities.  

The other is that the timid-minded said much the same thing when Kilmar Abrego-Garcia and the others were sent to a torture prison in El Salvador. Don't take on Trump on immigration, they warned, voters have lost all trust of the voters on the issue.  But you know what?  Some Democrats did stand up for Abrego Garcia.  Public opinion turned hard against shipping men off to a torture prison without trial for their tattoos.  The Supreme Court ruled against it.  Trump called for the expansion of the prison (capacity, about 40,000) and discussed the possibility of sending US citizens there.  But in the end he backed down.  The plan to routinely send deportees to CECOT prison was quietly dropped and eventually the detainees were released.

And the pushback is not limited to public opinion.  Many ICE agents are reluctant to go to Minneapolis in light of the outraged reaction they are facing there.  (Weather conditions probably aren't too appealing either).  A disgruntled insider is leaking damaging documents.  Even some White House insiders are concerned about the optics.

So the politics are well aligned to do a partial government shutdown over La Migra.  The question is what to demand.