The Time to Reign in ICE is Now

Trump has decided to keep the old regime in Venezuela under new management and exert pressure on how to behave, rather than take a root-and-branch approach.  As he commented,  "If you ever remember a place called Iraq, where everybody was fired, every single person, the police, the generals, everybody was fired, and they ended up being ISIS."  Much as I hate the man, he has a point there.  If we were to install opposition leader Maria Machado, we would end up with a leader who cannot control the army, police, or paramilitary gangs.  There is simply no way that would end up well.

But this has rather strong implications for our situation in the United States today.  I think there can be little doubt that Trump is setting out to take control of the army, the police and paramilitary gangs (i.e., La Migra) and turn the into his own private thugs.  

The police worry me the least.  Policing in the US is extremely diffuse. Wikipedia estimates that there are about 800,000 law enforcement officers in the US, of whom about 137,000 are federal.  Some are narrow specialty groups with numerous US departments, not serious sources of power.  The Department of Justice is home to most federal police agencies, including the FBI (c. 38,000 employees); the Drug Enforcement Agency, under 10,000 employees; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms; about 5,200 employees, the US Marshals, about 4,000 employees; and some prison bureaus that presumably have their hands full guarding prisoners. None of these agencies appear to have fallen under partisan control just yet, and DOJ lawyers are offering quite spirited resistance to subversion.  This does not mean that federal police cannot be subverted, just that it has not happened yet, and that it seems unlikely to be anywhere near complete before the 2026 election.  In any event, none of these really look like forces that could stage a coup.  So danger, yes, but relatively remote and our focus should be on keeping it from developing.

The army are scarier.  After all, they are powerful enough to stage a coup, or to become an instrument of occupation and oppression.  Currently they are trying to talk him out of invading Greenland, a plan they consider illegal.  Trump is now threatening a trade war over Greenland -- 10% tariffs on February 1, to increase to 25% on June 1 to continue until a deal is concluded.  This is not good, obviously, but if it means he is choosing a trade war over a shooting war -- at least for now -- then it could be worse.  It may be a sign that the generals have talked him down, at least for now.* And it is an encouraging sign that the generals just might block any attempt at a coup.  Of course, Pete Hegseth is hard at work subverting the military and he still has three more years to do it, so the danger is absolutely real.  But, again, what is needed right now is to prevention, rather than reversal.

But the "paramilitary gangs," i.e., La Migra -- ICE and Border Patrol -- are the danger right here and now.  They are terrorizing immigrant communities across the country, pepper spraying protesters, smashing windows, and beating and arresting anyone who looks too brown.  They blitzed Los Angeles and then Chicago, but were not able to subdue either city before moving on.  They are now blitzing Minneapolis with unprecedented numbers and brutality and can only be expected to get worse.  

La Migra is a danger, not at some undetermined time it the future, but right now.  Allowing them to continue unchecked does not just mean that untold numbers of people will be hurt.  It means unleashing a gang of thugs who have tasted blood and will not easily relinquish power.  People who just might stage "immigration raids" ad major Democratic events.  Or at polling places.  Or people who just might do what Trump wishes he had done last time and seize the ballot boxes.  Or even stage an outright coup.  In other words, people who just might subvert the democratic process by force and violence if they see their power is in danger, much less that they might be subject to criminal prosecution under a new administration.**  And even if La Migra is not able to keep a Democrat out of the White House, we would be faced with the prospect of a President who cannot control paramilitary gangs.

We need to do all we can to shrink and reign in this monstrosity before it gets even bigger and more powerrful.

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*Trump's desire to keep our naval forces surrounding Venezuela and controlling its oil flow may also be a factor.

**Unlikely, since Trump could always pardon them.