Will Republicans Ever Acknowledge the Pandemic?

 

But her e-mails

So let us concede that Americans are really, really tired of COVID restrictions.  And let us further concede that many of the restrictions are irrational and are driven more by political than scientific considerations.

Nonetheless, the virus is raging out of control and is getting really bad.  At what point will it become apparent to the casual observer that there is a problem?  At what point will the virus itself, rather than efforts to control its spread, start to become disruptive.

The obvious answer is that I don't know, that it may depend on the local culture.  And above all, the answer may be "never."  It may be that a disease that is only two percent fatal, and that most people recover from in about two weeks will never, by itself, become disruptive enough to persuade your casual observer to make lifestyle changes.

Obviously, the virus will be a serious problem in confined populations like prisons, nursing homes, or homeless shelters.  But will it be socially disruptive in the broader society?  I have no idea.

I can think of ways it might become disruptive.  It may be some workplaces will have to close down because so many employees fall sick.  How often will that happen with a disease most people recover from after two weeks?  How many businesses will have to shut down for people to perceive a problem?  I have no idea.

But it seems to me the most obvious weak link in the chain is the healthcare system.  That is, after all, the real reason for shutdowns -- to keep the healthcare system from overloading.  Because if the healthcare system overloads, our ability to treat the disease will seriously suffer, and the mortality rate will rise above two percent.  And a healthcare system overloaded dealing with COVID patients will become less able to treat other medical problems as well.

So my guess is that if anything does drive home the point that there is a problem, it will be people starting to be unable to get routine healthcare because the system is overwhelmed with COVID cases.  How many people will that be?  Probably not all that many, but word can get around.  

Of course, in that case most people will probably blame the healthcare system and not the virus.