So, How Does the Post-Election Stack up to Wargaming It

What do you have to lose?

As Donald Trump's desperate rear-guard action against the election continue, I thought I would compare them with the war gaming that attempted to play out what might happen post-election.

So, what can we say?

First of all, some of the worst fears the organizers gamed out have not come about.  In some cases, their worst fears are no longer possible.  Trump has not mobilized the National Guard or the Department of Justice to seize absentee ballots, and the time to do so is past.  So far the contest has played out in the courts, in the certification process, and in informal pseudo-legislative hearings.  Both sides have (mostly) stayed off the streets, although there is still time for that.  

Still, many of the report's predictions are eerily prescient.  It predicted team Trump might take steps such as:

• Calling for recounts in all states in which victory was not already apparent. [Done]
• Launching coordinated investigations at the state and federal levels into alleged “voting irregularities” in an effort to undermine public confidence in results that did not go Trump’s way and/or alter the results. [Attempted]
• Attempting to halt the counting of mail-in ballots by filing cases in state court or leaning on Republican leaders to stop vote counting or to certify a result early, without waiting for the certified results from the Secretary of State. [Done, though not successful]
• Turning out their well-organized and committed base to take to the streets in Trump’s favor, in part by disseminating disinformation about the danger posed by pro-Biden demonstrators (e.g., by suggesting likely Antifa violence, etc.). [Not done on a significant scale so far, except for one protest in Washington DC]
• Relying on both FOX News and right-wing social media to echo and amplify pro-Trump messages and facilitate the harassment and bullying of election officials, to cause chaos and delay and/or to intimidate officials into taking actions that benefited Team Trump. [Done, but not successfully in terms of changing results].
• Using federal agencies to justify or support Trump campaign tactics. In one of the more aggressive moves undertaken in one of the TIP exercises, Team Trump had Attorney General Bill Barr order the seizure of mail-in ballots to ensure that vote counting would stop.  [Not done].

It also correctly anticipated that most Republican officials, at least in Congress, would go along with this.

The war games played out four scenarios -- ambiguous outcome, Trump win, narrow Biden win and decisive Biden win.  Clearly the first two can be ruled out now.  Biden has won.  The report did not define "clear win" versus "narrow win," although its definition of a narrow win appears to have been by 1% or less of the popular vote and about 278 electoral votes. 

The report predicted that in case of a clear Biden win, the Trump campaign would allege massive fraud and call for federal investigations, with support by Republican officials.  The Trump campaign and Republican officials would call on the media to cast doubt on the outcomes, but would not try to get state legislatures to override the popular vote, or seek to thwart vote counting.  After that attempt failed, the Trump campaign would change the focus to damage control -- through pardons, securing business contracts, installing loyalists in key government positions, and hindering the transition.  Nonetheless, Team Biden moved forward with the transition and began outreach to Republicans with modest success.

In case of a narrow Biden win, the report predicted that Fox News would call the win, but Team Trump would not concede it  Instead it would successfully persuade the Michigan and Pennsylvania legislatures to appoint pro-Trump slates of electors. challenge the legitimacy of the election, launch a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation, and spread rumors that Biden had a heart attack.  Mitt Romney would persuade three other Republican Senators to announce Biden as the winner. The Biden Campaign would take to the streets and the military would leak that it intended to support the election outcome.  Right wing media would step up the lies and attempts to intimidate Biden electors.  Trump would issue pardons and leave the White House only upon the threat of being evicted by force.

It seems to me that what we have gotten so far is somewhere in between what the report predicted for a clear Biden victory and what the report predicted for a narrow Biden victory.  The Trump campaign has sued to overturn the result, without success, and has sought to stop vote counts and persuade state legislatures to appoint pro-Trump electors all (so far) without success.  William Barr has launched an investigation of electoral fraud and not found it.  Fox has called the election for Biden and is facing mass defections to OANN and Newsmax, which are behaving about the way the report predicted.  The number of Republican Senators recognizing a Biden victory is about what the report expected.  But no rival electors have been appointed (so far) and the contest has stayed off the streets (so far).  The pardons are beginning.

David Frum was one of the participants and sheds more light on what to anticipate for the weeks ahead.  Electors are certified on December 8.  They vote on December 14.  Congress certifies the result on January 6.  The inauguration takes place January 20.  Frum reports that the participants saw December 8 as the cutoff date:  "Generally, once we got past the December 8 date, the Trump team’s options for keeping power dwindled to zero. What was left then was scorched-earth self-enrichment, self-protection, and spite."  This was based on the assumption that neither Congress nor Mike Pence (as presiding officer) would decline to certify the electoral vote.  

This may prove optimistic. Judges, conservative ones included, have held firm in denying Trump challenges.  State election officials, including (most) Republicans, have upheld the vote.  State legislatures have only had to duck for cover and avoid taking a stand.  Most Congressional Republicans have been doing that too.  But when the Electoral College vote is presented, Congressional Republicans will have no choice but to stand up and be counted.  Team Trump's last ditch pan is for Republicans in Congress to refuse to certify the results.  And, in fairness to Congressional Republicans, if they refuse to certify the results, they will not be doing anything Congressional Democrats have not done before.

My guess -- probably most Congressional Republicans will vote not to certify, abstain, or skip the vote.  But enough will join the Democrats to certify Joe Biden as the next President.