Whither the Biden Presidency and Why Georgia Matters

Make America Great Again

 Let's face it.  Joe Biden is not going to enact an ambitious agenda, even if by some miracle Democrats win both Senate seats in Georgia.

He just doesn't have the mandate for it.  The American people have made perfectly clear this election that they don't want any sweeping change; they just want everything to go back to normal.  Any measure will face the Senate filibuster, and Joe Manchin has made clear he will not vote to overturn it.

And that is OK, really.  That fact is, Biden's hands will be more than full making America normal again.  He will have to get the COVID vaccine distributed, get the economy up and running once enough people are vaccinated, and offer relief until then.  And that is to say nothing of repairing -- and exposing -- all the damage Trump has done to the executive branch.  That should be more than enough to do.  Reforms can wait -- until a future administration, if necessary.

But even that will call for some degree of cooperation from Congress, and that isn't going to happen if Republicans control the Senate.  

I know some people are so naive as to believe that Biden will be able to work constructively with Senate Republicans.  Biden is, after all, the first real Washington insider elected President since George H.W. Bush, who was generally effective.  His Senate colleagues like him and have worked with him in the past.  This article sets forth why Biden might be better able to work with Senate Republicans than Obama.  Describing Biden's role in the Obama Administration, it makes clear he did not have an Ivy League degree, was "cerebral" and not a wonk.  "Obama always seeking data for the most logical or efficient outcome, while Biden told stories about how a bill would affect the working-class guy in Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he was born."  When the Administration reached an impasse with Republicans in Congress, Obama had a tendency to lecture Republicans about why they were wrong that came across as condescending.  Biden accepted that disagreements were normal and was prepared to politic. 

In short, Biden does not have the sort of traits that Republicans find so particularly off-putting.  He knows Senate Republicans well and thinks of them as colleagues to work with.  And if it were only Joe Biden and the Senate, they might come to a reasonable agreement.

But it is not just Biden and the Senate.  It is Biden, the Senate, and the Republican base, who regard Biden's victory as illegitimate and will rush to primary anyone who cooperates with the vile usurper.  And also Mitch McConnell and his discovery that total obstruction, even if it hurts the country -- indeed, especially if it hurts the country -- is politically advantageous.  

And there is almost no limit to what Republicans might do.  Most obviously, one can expect that they will refuse to pass any legislation whatever, except a budget with massive spending cuts.  It seems a safe assumption that they will refuse any COVID relief.  I would not put it past them to refuse even funding for vaccine distribution. It seems a safe assumption that a Republican Senate will refuse to confirm any judicial appointments, and will investigate all possible minutia involving the Biden Administration.  

Admittedly, in really important matters like COVID relief and funding vaccine distribution, there might be a few Republicans (such as Romney, Collins and Murkowski) would would be willing to side with the Democrats, and the filibuster could be evaded by budget reconciliation.  But so long as Republicans hold the majority, Mitch McConnell decides what comes to the floor and could thwart such legislation by not allowing it to come to a vote.

And that is just assuming Republicans will do the same things under a Biden Administration that they did under an Obama Administration.  Given the degree of crazy overtaking the Republican Party these days, it is easy to imagine a Republican Senate doing even worse.

Recall that a federal judge recently struck down actions by President Trump's Acting Secretary of Homeland Security as invalid because he had not been confirmed by the Senate.  Well, suppose the Senate refused to confirm any Biden nominees, in order to prevent him from taking any meaningful executive action.

Or it might refuse to raise the debt ceiling, no matter, no matter what concessions it might extort, and inflict the consequences of a debt ceiling breach.

Or -- well, who knows the depths of Mitch McConnell's evil genius.

In short, it is vitally important for Democrats to control the Senate. It is also most unlikely that they will win both Senate seats in Georgia.  If they win one, maybe they can persuade some relatively sane Republican to switch parties.  (I am thinking of Patrick Toomey, who is retiring at the end of his term and therefore has no career to lose). If they lose both (considered the most likely possibility), I see no way forward.

But if Democrats somehow manage to retake the Senate, I would urge them to use budget reconciliation to do two things.  Pass COVID relief.  And eliminate the debt ceiling altogether.