Sunday, May 12, 2024

What Donald Trump Wants to Do, What He Can Do, What He Can't, and What Can We Do About It?

 

There has been ample talk about what Donald Trump plans to do if reelected, most recently in his interview with Time magazine. Any realistic assessment of what Trump can do and what he cannot is essential to forming a Plan B for how to deal with him.

An important caveat here.  Just because Trump can do something does not mean that he will.  In fact, I do not expect him to do all the things suggested here.  But I so expect him to attempt at least some of these things, and do not know enough about the man to guess which ones.  And really, for him to attempt even one of these things is troubling enough.

Things Trump can do:

  • Circumvent the Constitutional requirement of Senate concurrence in executive appointments by appointing "acting" officials
  • Appoint MAGA friendly judges, if approved by the Senate
  • Enlarge ("pack") the courts if approved by Congress
  • Pardon any federal crime whatever
  • Give illegal orders or engage in criminal conspiracies and shield all participants from prosecution by pardon
  • Direct the Department of Justice (DOJ) not to prosecute certain offenses or individuals
  • Direct to focus on particular offenses, or to prosecute particular individuals
  • Seeking to withdraw civil service protections from some 15,000 executive officials with some "policy making" authority.  This one is contested.
  • Give policy making jobs to big campaign contributors
  • Harass political rivals (including organizations) with selective regulatory actions
  • Issue federal contracts and other benefits on a patronage basis (contested)
  • "Impound," i.e., refuse to spend funds appropriated by Congress, create a test case on whether statutes banning the practice are constitutional
  • Withhold funds from state and local government that do not do what he wants (contested)
  • Incite angry followers to threaten and harass anyone who stand in his way
  • Pardon such angry followers if they commit federal crimes.
  • Federalize the National Guard to act on his behalf.
Clearly these are formidable powers.  Again, it seems unlikely that he will do all of these things, at least all the time, but even one occasion is alarming.  But before panicking too much, let us also consider the political power in the US is extremely diffuse, and consider what Trump cannot do.

Things Trump cannot do:

  • Circumvent the need for Senate approval of federal judges
  • Expand the judiciary without an act of Congress
  • Pardon state crimes
  • Pardon civil judgments 
  • Prevent state or local officials from prosecuting people who commit crimes on his behalf.  (At least private citizens.  There is some dispute for federal officials).
  • Commandeer local government to carry out his wishes
  • Prevent judges from dismissing criminal charges that lack merit
  • Force grand juries to indict when there is no merit
  • Override a criminal acquittal at any level
  • Fire state or local officials
  • Prevent suits to release improperly withheld funds
  • Unilaterally take a wide range of actions that require an act of Congress
  • Legislate in a wide range of areas reserved for the states
  • Be anywhere near as smart or as competent as he thinks he is
So, keeping all of this in mind, what makes sense to for us to do to stop Trump?

  • Keep the Senate in Democratic hands to block inappropriate judicial appointments.
  • If that proves impossible (and it will be tough going), at least take back the house to keep him from passing any crazy legislation
  • Elect local District Attorneys and Attorney Generals who are willing to prosecute law breaking by Trump supporters
  • Elect other local officials who will not do his bidding
  • Study how to manage without the federal funding he is threatening to withhold
  • Write to your members of Congress, local officials, etc and show up at town hall meetings
  • Sue, both to block actions and for damages
  • Fund raise
  • Volunteer
  • Publicize the most unpopular actions
  • And remember rule number one of successful authoritarians -- don't take unpopular actions unnecessarily.  I suspect Donald Trump will break this rule.  We need to be ready to pounce.

More to come on specifics.

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