We Need a Plan B

Can we face facts?  This last week two events (arguably three) occurred that have likely secured the election for Trump.

First, the economy showed clear signs of softening with inflation still above target, and consumer sentiment tanked.  (Is that one event or two?)  Second, our college campuses broke out in riots, occupation, and police crackdown, creating a general impression of chaos and the desire for a law and order candidate.

All of this means that Donald Trump is most likely to win in November.  I do not mean we should stop trying to defeat him.  But it does mean we should start making a Plan B.  

Most people I have talked to when asked about a Plan B have said move somewhere else.  That is defeatist and just turns the country over to Trump by draining it of his opponents.  

So, can we please get some perspective and start thinking what comes next?

When this country was founded, the iconic example of democracy failing was Rome. Today it is Germany.  But, while Weimar is worth considering as an example how how democracies die, these analogies can be taken too far.  Trump is not Hitler.  Nor is he Putin.  He is not even Recep Erdogan.  More plausibly, he is Viktor Orban, a fairly mild dictator.  Orban did not consolidate power overnight.  Neither did Erdogan (or Putin, for that matter).  

Furthermore, we have two advantages over Hungary or Turkey.  One is that political power in the US is extremely diffuse and our independent institutions are extensive, leaving numerous point for resistance.  

Second, Donald Trump is an absolute idiot who knows nothing whatever about policy and wants to do numerous things that will be either impracticable or wildly unpopular.  And yes, I know he has people working with him to throw off the constraints of our bureaucratic institutions (the "Deep State") that restrained him last time. That will mean throwing off the constraints that protected the country from Trump, but also the constraints that protected Trump from himself.  That will be what undermines him most.  President FAFO.

So, I have some advice on what to do and what not to do.

Not to do:  Give up, flee the country, riot, smash things, block traffic, occupy public spaces and set up camp, train militias for armed resistance.

To do:  Donate to organizations that plan to resist Trump, such as the ACLU.  Volunteer for such organizations.  Support Democratic candidates and anti-Trump Republicans at all levels of government.  Organize election campaigns.  Protest peacefully.  Figure out an protest style that discourages bad elements.  Get the word out what is happening.  And do what you can to make society better through non-governmental channels.

PS:  Details to come.