Procedurally, Trump scares the hell out of me. Substantively, I have no doubt that some of the things he wants to do will be really bad. On the other hand, their badness may ultimately be what undercuts his popularity and thwarts his bid for dictatorial power. But the human suffering will be very real, and the damage to our society will not be easily reversed.
Scarier still are plans to do much the same with the military. And even scarier is the thought that, given the necessarily hierarchical, top-down nature of the military, appointing a few loyalists at the top could allow them give promotions to ideological allies and remake the entire mid-level military bureaucracy into a right-wing preserve, unlikely to accept civilian control from a Democrat. And then there are his plans to militarize law enforcement by sending the National Guard into Democratic-led cities. Do not expect his worst high level appointments to be thwarted by the need for Senate confirmation. By the end of his term, Trump had learned to circumvent that requirement by appointing "acting" officials.
I am less concerned about Trump using the Department of Justice to charge his political opponents, which appears to be his top priority. I am confident that our institutions are strong enough that even a Trump DOJ will have to allege violations of some specific law, which will be a heavy lift. They will also come up against an independent judiciary which will throw out the most obviously spurious charges, and juries that will acquit. Trump will no doubt successfully block any investigation of his own corrupt behavior.
All of this is scary. Both scarier and less scary is Trump's substantive agenda -- very bad, but some of it so unpopular that it just might be his undoing.
For instance, there has been talk of a Trump Administration using the CDC to track and surveille abortion, or enforcing Comstock Laws that remain on the books to forbid interstate shipment of any medications or equipment used for abortion. In fact, this will be an interesting test of just how much influence the party ideological leaders have on Trump. Although he has adopted some degree of pro-life talk, there is no reason to believe that Trump has any strong principled opposition to abortion. (Or any other principles, for that matter). He also appears to recognize just how unpopular such a measure would be. My guess is that Trump will limit himself to a few anti-abortion remarks and generally avoid doing anything as much as possible.
Rather more interesting are some of the things Trump clearly intends to do. One is to impose a 10% tax on all imports. That will have to be passed by Congress, of course and will, again, be an interesting measure of how much sway Trump has with a party whose dogma is that taxes must never be increased under any circumstances. Maybe a Republican Congress will agree to an imports tax increase if offset by a income tax reduction. And maybe breaking the Republican Party's most absolute taboo could have some good effect in the long run. In the short run, if such a plan passes the most obvious effect will be an increase in prices. Nothing close to a 10% increase, to be clear. The tax will only be on the minority of products that we import. And it can (and is intended to be) offset to some degree by substituting taxed imports with American products that are more expensive but for the tax. On the other hand, some of the price increase will filter up as imports are used in American-made products. And no doubt other countries will retaliate by slapping a tax on US products, thus hurting our exports. It seems like a strange measure for someone who is proclaiming inflation during the Biden Administration and an unprecedented catastrophe. But I am guessing that the party faithful will scarcely even notice and associated increase in prices, much less care. The rest of the population will see it as an inconvenience, but hardly a catastrophe.
Immigration is a different matter. Yes, on the one hand, Republican leaders who proclaim their opposition to immigration usually preface it with the qualifier "illegal." On the other hand Trump notoriously declared his opposition to immigration from "shithole countries" and many of his supporters accept "replacement theory." This being the case, I would expect Trump to make a serious attempt at crackdown on immigration in general and not just the illegal variety. This will not go over well with big money interests who depend on immigrant labor (legal or illegal). It could be an interesting contest between the Republican base and Republican donors. And given how much Trump has emphasized it, and his continued association with the odious Stephen Miller, I fully expect Trump to make a serious crackdown on longtime US residents who are in the country illegally, including widespread workplace raids and makeshift detention facilities.
I would expect this to be highly disruptive and unpopular in farm communities that depend on immigrant labor. These farm communities are, after all, major Trump strongholds. As such, massive immigration raids might actually dent his popularity with an important constituency. On the other hand, I also expect that these farm communities will make up a relatively small part of the Republican base, so it may not dent Trump's popularity with the party faithful all that much. Needless to say, it will cause great outcry in the agriculture and construction industries and be unpopular with the big money interests. Once again, this will be an interesting test of big money interests' ability to reign Trump in. I would expect the effect on the wider public to mostly take the form of increased food and construction costs. Again, given the outrage at Biden over food and housing price increases, one would expect these to hurt Trump. But again, I would expect the party faithful either not to notice, or not to connect the price increases with Trump's policies.
And, finally, Trump is once again promising to repeal and replace Obamacare. The last attempt to do so should have proven to everyone's satisfaction that Republicans don't know how to make healthcare policy and don't much care. What they ended up with was a repeal now, replace later. In practical terms, what that would have meant was shutting down the exchanges, withdrawing everyone's subsidies, and kicking millions off of Medicaid. And it came within one vote of passing. Fortunately, a dying McCain, in his last public act, stepped in to save his party from itself. I don't know if Donald Trump, if elected, will once again, attack Obamacare. There is no appetite for such a move, either by the base or the party leadership. This is purely a personal grudge match on Trump's part. I have no doubt that any attempt to repeal Obamacare would, in the words of one party leader, make as much sense as diving headfirst into a wood chipper. It would mean throwing some ten million people off Medicaid and another ten million off the exchanges. Trump would clearly and unequivocally be blamed for it. In short, it would, well, make as much sense as diving headfirst into a wood chipper. So I suppose the question will be first, whether Trump has the attention span to pursue this, and second, how far his party can go in saving him from himself.
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