The Latest Trump Tantrum is Just Like Any Other

 

So, the New Hampshire primary is over.  Trump won by a comfortable margin, but less than polls suggested. Nikki Haley is refusing to drop out, and is actually getting pretty hard-hitting.  And Trump is throwing a tantrum, because of course he is.

By all means, feel free to relish the spectacle. But don't read too much into it.  We've seen this script any number of times and should know already what will come of it, which is not much.

The Republican leadership can forgive anything in Trump, including shooting someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue, but the one thing that really bothers them is when he breaks the Eleventh Commandment -- Thou shalt not speak ill of thy fellow Republicans.  Republican leaders are sure that is the one unforgiveable sin.  They freaked out when he said nasty things about Ron DeSantis and Kim Reynolds (governor of Iowa).  They were sure he had finally shown himself up for what he was and that the voters would finally turn against him.  And then they discovered that the Republican rank and file love when Trump violates the Eleventh Commandment because they seem him as attacking the evil Republican Establishment and standing up for the little guy.  And really, the Republican Establishment should have known what to expect when Trump attacked DeSantis and Reynolds.  Exactly the same thing happened in 2016 when he attacked Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

And now it is Nikki Haley's turn.  She didn't actually win an election against Trump, but she did better than expected and is now following up by telling hitherto unspeakable truths about Trump.  Of course, that is what DeSantis did too, just before it became his cause was hopeless and he came crawling back.  Make no mistake, Nikki Haley will do exactly the same thing.  

The New Hampshire primary is an anomaly.  New Hampshire is one of the last holdouts of the old-style New England moderate Republican.  It also allows non-Republicans to vote in the primaries.  All of which means that Haley's respectable showing will not be duplicated.  Next up are the Nevada caucus and the South Carolina primary.  The most ideological hardline voters dominate caucuses.  And South Caroline is hardcore Southern Trump country.  I have no doubt that Trump will get the kind of wins there that he thinks are his due.  Haley will drop out and come crawling back, just like all the others have. They will kiss and make up.

What about all those Haley supporters in the primary who say they will never vote for Trump, or that they will vote against him if he is convicted.  I expect them to go the way of other Never Trumpers -- it will turn out that they mean Never Trump in the primaries.  Faced with the unspeakable prospect of a Democrat in the White House, I have no doubt they will fall in line.

So enjoy the spectacle while you can.  But don't expect anything to come of it.