So, Do I Wish Now Trump Had Won?

 

So, do I wish Trump had won now?  I don’t know yet, it will depend how things shake out.

Because I am inclined to believe that if Trump had won, Putin would not have invaded Ukraine.  After all, he would have a friend in the White House.  Why take actions that could jeopardize their friendship?  Trump was busy undermining NATO and quite probably intended to withdraw in his second term.  With NATO self-destructing, why take actions that might bring it together? 

And, to be clear, if there had been an ordinary Republican in the White House, I do not doubt that Putin would have proceeded the same as he is proceeding now.  Maybe the generic Republican would have initiated sanctions faster than Biden has, maybe not.  But I would not expect it to make any difference.  I would not expect a generic Republican to coordinate an international response as well as Biden has, but given just how destructive these sanctions can be, I am not convinced that would be altogether bad.

And certainly if Putin had nonetheless invaded with Trump in the White House, I would not expect Trump to have organized such an effective international response as Biden has done.  I would expect Trump to respond by locking himself in the bathroom and banging out petulant tweets about how none of this was his fault.  The result – Ukraine would have been overrun much faster.  (Its persistence has been largely the result of NATO assistance with both weapons and intelligence).  And given the horrors we see unfolding today, maybe that would be more merciful.  Would Putin then go on to invade other countries as well?  Possibly central Asian countries that were part of the old Soviet Union, but I doubt he would take on any NATO powers.  And I certainly would not expect Trump to have the diplomatic skill to organize the sort of sanctions that Biden has done, or to be willing the accept the associated hardships.  But, again, the question has to be just how bad those hardships turn out to be, less for the US than for poorer countries cut off from Russia and Ukrainian grain.

I also believe that if Trump had won, he would have spent his second term finding ways to persecute his opponents, make the US government the instrument of his power, and ultimately destroy US democracy.  So, do I think the destruction of US democracy would be an acceptable price to pay to avoid the know horrors we are seeing unfold in Ukraine and the unknown horrors we will see unfold from the sanctions?  I don’t know yet.  That will depend on how things shake out.

There are very few things I would consider the destruction of US democracy and the breakup of the Western alliance as an acceptable price to pay.  Avoiding global thermonuclear war is one.  Avoiding WWIII, even if it doesn’t turn thermonuclear is another.  What about avoiding an economic WWIII with worldwide famine and upheaval?  Maybe.  I don’t know yet.  It will depend how things shake out.  On the other hand, paying lower prices at the pump is not something I am prepared to sacrifice US democracy and the Western alliance for.  (Certain Republicans I know disagree).  Nor is avoiding Cold War II.  We have been headed for Cold War II for quite some time.  A Trump presidency would merely have delayed, not prevented, Cold War II, and it would have brought us into the new Cold War in a much weaker position.

And finally, I will take any President – Biden, Trump or anyone else you can name -- who is old enough to remember the Cold War the old cardinal rule of Cold War days – nuclear powers must never go to war directly against other nuclear powers.  We need to start giving the younger generation a crash course on just the terror that was routine during the Cold War.  The Cold War generation will die off and sooner or later a post-Cold War President will be elected.  We need him/her to understand just what is at stake.