War Weariness

Wow!  It has been over two months since my last post!  Somehow the war in Ukraine has been too terrifying to write about, nor have I had anything of value to add to what is already said. Yet to post about anything else seems frivolous when we are facing a potential WWIII.

Signs of war weariness are clearly emerging in the western alliance.  We are getting tired of sanctions, tired of high oil prices, and fearful of global famine and upheaval if the war continues. Are there similar signs of war weariness in Russia?

It is hard to say.  Certainly there is no sign of a great groundswell in recruits signing up to fight, and no sign of any appetite to put the economy on a war footing.  I recall seeing an article saying that while Russian news shows continue to rant and rage, calling for WWIII and nuclear war before admitting defeat, ordinary Russians are increasingly starting to tune them out.  So it is probably true that the war fever Putin and company managed to whip up has largely subsided.   But that isn't quite the same as all-out war weariness.

It is also a mistake to pay too much attention to various Russian oligarchs, athletes, and artists coming out against the war. Russian oligarchs, though rich, have not had any real political power for a long time.  And besides, the commercial and artistic classes tend to be way ahead of the general public in opposing wars.  But even if war weariness has set in among the general public, what really matters is whether war weariness has set in among Russia's ruling circles.  And ruling circles are the last to turn against wars.  (Our own experience in Iraq is instructive).  

Finally, while all sorts of speculation is circulating about Vladimir Putin's health, it is probably a mistake to give this undue weight.  Before the war, Putin would only meet with anyone at a ridiculously long table, or some other form of distance.  The obvious interpretation was that Putin feared that someone might try to thwart the war by arresting or killing him.  Well, now the war is underway, and Putin seems much more willing to talk to other officials at a normal distance.  The obvious interpretation is that the die is cast, Russian ruling circles are all united in supporting the war, and Putin no longer fears overthrow.  If anything were to happen to him, his successor would be equally hard line, or even more.

Maybe it will be a sign of war weariness, even in Russia's ruling circles, if the long tables make a comeback.