The Republican base is quite clear. The 2020 election was stolen. Any acknowledgement that it was legitimate is a deal breaker. Swing voters, by contrast, don't see a party that refuses to accept elections it loses and appears to condone violent insurrections as a deal-breaker. They appear to see the insurrection as ancient history and recognizing election results as the sort of insider baseball that no normal person actually cares about.
This election is not a must-win, merely a testing of the waters and a harbinger of things to come. But the next election truly is a must-win. We have to face the real possibility that Republicans will elect election officials who will refuse to recognize election results they don't like. Or state legislatures who overrule results they don't like. Or a congressional delegation that will certify Donald Trump as winning regardless of the actual outcome.
The Republican base will demand this as a basic qualification for office. Democrats don't seem to be able to convey the importance of the issue. And swing voters just don't care and are more interested in gas prices.
That being said, I do see two hopeful developments. First, a Republican winning a high profile election should give some reassurance to the Republican base, who see elections as hopelessly rigged against them.
Second, a Republican lost the election for governor in New Jersey by a narrow margin.
Since the 2020 election, two Democrats won by a narrow margin in Georgia and went unchallenged, other than a short and appropriate delay for a recount. But the basic idea that Republicans should never recognize a Democrat as winning was not fully established at the time. Since then Democrats have won a seat in Congress in New Mexico and the recall in California. Republicans conceded, but the margin was so broad as to make a challenge hopeless. So far, the New Jersey candidate has not conceded, but neither has he gone full-on Trump. So we may see whether Republicans are willing to concede narrow losses.
Update: After two weeks, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli has finally conceded defeat and urged his supporters to accept the results and live to fight another day. So, since Trump's unprecedented attempt to overturn the election, Republicans have lost by margins ranging from narrow to wide and conceded in all cases. They have also won a high-profile election in Virginia and other elections elsewhere, all without the results being challenged. All of this is to the good and shows the election process working normally. The question is whether it will continue to work normally if and when MAGA candidates take over election counting offices after the 2022 election.
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