Thursday, November 11, 2021

The Latest in Vote Flow Charts

All attempts to overturn the 2020 election having failed, Republicans appear to have decided to rely on a new tool not in their toolkit last time -- private election audits. Somewhere along the line the Cyber Ninja audit in Arizona went from a ridiculous search for bamboo fibers that was making Arizona a national laughing stock into something Republicans in every state wanted to copy -- even in states where Trump won by sweeping landslides.

The Cyber Ninja audit, it should be added, failed to overturn the result. (It actually added a handful of votes to the Biden column).  But that failure can be ignored because the audit came up with various (illegitimate) excuses to doubt the results and essentially declared the actual outcome to be an unknowable mystery. 

So the current Republican model for elections appears to be as follows:


This looks distinctly messy and unsatisfactory, not to mention the fact that it failed to get the result they wanted.  But fear not, Republicans can now make Cyber Ninjas the first tool in their kit.  Given the group's performance in Arizona, it should be an easy matter to delay certification past the deadline.  This will allow the (Republican, thoroughly gerrymandered) legislature to choose an alternative slate of electors.  The Cyber Ninjas model in swing states will look like this:


This is simple and straightforward and can guarantee a Republican victory in every swing state.  It might run into problem, though -- Democrats in Congress.  Up until 2020, it had been assumed that Congress's role in certifying an election is purely ceremonial unless their was no Electoral College majority (something that has happened only twice).  But now the unthinkable has become thinkable. Can Congress refuse to certify a state's electoral vote.  Certainly we can imagine that a state legislature overrode the popular vote, Congressional Democrats would refuse to certify.  Republicans would naturally be outraged at their dirty dealing.  The model would look something like this:

In fact, I could almost see this being made to work.  It is generally assumed that our system of government depends on upholding unofficial norms.  If the norms are kept, constitutional government thrives; if norms fail, the rule of law is trampled.  FDR's failed attempt at court packing is given as the classic example.  But sometimes norms fail and new norms simply take their place, leaving democracy and the rule of law none the worse for it.  Classic example: Andrew Jackson's veto of the Bank of the United States.  Up till then it was assumed that the President should veto only unconstitutional legislation.  The Supreme Court had found the Bank constitutional, so Jackson would have no choice but to sign. Instead, he vetoed and set a new norm that the President can veto legislation for purely policy or partisan reasons.  Democracy seems to have survived.

So I suppose we could adopt a system in which the electoral college is purely a formality and Congress makes the choice, with each member voting for the candidate of their own party.  It would move us more in the direction of a parliamentary system.  It would also make control of Congress paramount and have the effect of being a complete end to ticket splitting and making gerrymanders all the more important.  It do not favor such a system, but I could see democracy possibly surviving it.*

Clearly the Cyber Ninjas model has two disadvantages.  One is that Congress can thwart it if Democrats hold a majority.  (Does anyone doubt the next certification will take place under martial law with the National Guard lined up all around Congress?).  The other disadvantage is that it applies to Presidential elections only and still allows Democrats to hold other offices.  But Republicans are working on another model that is more reliable -- simply put people in charge of vote counting who will not certify Democrats as winning any office.  It will look something like this:

_________________________________________________________

*For democracy to survive, we would need the following sequence.  Democrats win the presidency and Congress.  Congressional Republicans then unanimously refuse to certify the outcome but Democrats, as the majority party, override them.  Perhaps there is a repeat performance with Democrats again holding both branches in the next election.  After that, a Republican wins both branches and Democrats see little choice but to retaliate, and the new norm is born.

No comments:

Post a Comment