Sunday, September 22, 2019

On Impeachment

I don't think this latest uproar will change anything.  Certainly it does not change my views on impeachment.

My views on impeachment are this.  An impeachable offense is whatever public opinion says it is.  Public opinion has to mean not just a majority, but a super-majority, including a sizable portion of the President's party.   In today's hyper-polarized atmosphere, Republican voters would not support impeachment if Trump shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue.  Republicans in Congress are not willing to defy their constituents on this matter.

Furthermore Nancy Pelosi's reluctance to impeach is not just based on the knowledge that the Senate wouldn't vote to convict even if Trump shot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue.  It is based on the knowledge that so far she doesn't even have enough Democratic votes to sustain an impeachment.  I am honestly at a loss as to what purpose it would serve to bring articles of impeachment only to see them fail.

My greatest concern about impeachment is not just that Republicans will see it as purely partisan, but that they will retaliate by impeaching the next Democrat to be elected President.  Democrats will see little choice but to retaliate in kind, and impeachment will become a routine matter of partisan politics.  I would rather see impeachment become impossible than see it degraded to a routine matter.

Nonetheless, I have changed my mind about an impeachment inquiry.  I have always favored aggressive investigation of Trump's corruption, business dealings, etc.  His response has been to stonewall the proceedings, refuse to produce documents, claim executive privilege for all witnesses, etc, even in the face of clear law requiring him to cooperate.  His argument, supported by William Barr, is essentially that Congress has  no authority to hold the President accountable, except through impeachment.

This being the case, I don't see Congress has much choice but to declare an impeachment inquiry.  No floor vote is required to do so.  A member simply introduces an impeachment resolution.  Members introduce impeachment resolutions all the time.  Most go nowhere.  The Speaker then assigns the resolution to a committee to investigate.  If the committee approves the resolution, it goes to the floor for a vote on whether to impeach.

I therefore recommend that members of the House introduce impeachment resolutions, not just on Trump's dealings with Ukraine, but on the numerous other matters that require investigation.  Nancy Pelosi should then refer all these matters to the appropriate committee to investigate and see if there is an impeachable offense.  Of course, Republicans will cry foul.  They will complain that there is no evidence of impeachable conduct and that Democrats are abusing the process to conduct routine investigations.  The Democratic response is obvious.  We don't know if there is anything impeachable going on because you-know-who is stonewalling us.  There may or may not be anything impeachable, but until we pry his hot little hands loose, we really don't know.  Then investigate, see if you find anything scandalous enough to turn public opinion in favor of impeachment.  (I will bet no, see above).  If not, at least some of what you find may be useful in the upcoming election.  And no, there is no point crying foul about that.  Republicans in Congress spent four years investigating Benghazi in hopes of finding something to hurt Hillary Clinton in her upcoming run for President.

Of course, this carries the risk of a different kind of retaliation.  It means that Republicans will call every investigation of a Democratic President an impeachment inquiry.  It will be unnecessary because I really do not expect a Democratic President to stonewall in the way that Trump is doing, but Republicans will feel the need as a matter of politics and Democrats will doubtless respond in kind.  (No guarantee against future Republican Presidents stonewalling in Trumpian manner).

But you know what?  I can live with that.  I don't think it will hurt us too much to routinely call ordinary investigations impeachment inquiries, so long as actual impeachment resolutions only occur for serious misconduct.

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