Saturday, April 20, 2019

Further Comments

Here is the reason I don't favor impeachment.

What is an impeachable offense?  I would say, an impeachable offense is whatever public opinion says is impeachable.  So what is public opinion?  Well, I would say considerably more than majority opinion, or even a super-majority opinion.  This is not to say that the President has to get down to a zero percent approval rating to be impeachable, but something like a super-super-majority, including much of his own party, is needed to impeach a President.  Something like Nixon's 24% approval, with only 50% of Republicans approving is what we need.  As things stand now, I am confident that Donald Trump could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and Republicans would rally behind him.  And they would see impeachment efforts as purely partisan.

And that is what I fear most.  Not just that impeachment will fail.  Not just that it will unite the Republicans behind Trump.  But that Republicans will see it as purely partisan and will retaliate by impeaching the next Democrat elected President.  And that impeachment will become a routine tactic of partisan politics.  I would rather see impeachment never used than always used.

So what does that leave?  I would say, there is plenty in the report to make electoral hay.  To judge by Trump tweeting, he appears to agree.

And I would say to take a page from Karl Rove's play book.  Rove's advice was always to hit your opponents where the are strongest.  He said it was useless to hit where they were weakest because the public already knows about a candidate's weakness and has factored them in.  In the case of Trump, his biggest weakness was his ethics.  It seems a safe assumption that nobody voted for Trump because they were vowed by his ethics.*

So what is Trump's strongest point?  Believe it or not, it is that his followers saw him as a strong and competent leader, and probably that many saw his lack of ethics as an expression of strength.  And the Mueller Report portrays Trump as a weak, incompetent leader whose subordinates routinely disregard his orders, manipulate him, and undermine him.  This article perceptively refers to Trump as "a leader who detests weakness -- but doesn't necessarily mind an amoral reputation."  And such his his appeal -- amoral, but strong, particularly appealing to people who equate strength with amorality and see moral constraints as weakness.  Play on all the portrayals of Trump as a weak leader.

And attack his reputation for competence.  Yes, you and I know he was never competent to begin with, but his supporters don't know that.  Don't portray him as an unethical businessman.  His followers are fine with his lack of ethics so long as his unethical behavior is deployed on their behalf.  Show all the times he backed down when faced with a real challenge.  And above all, set out to prove that he isn't as rich as he claims to be.**  That drives him nuts.  And it contributes to showing him as a weak man who can't handle the slightest adversity.

This article also puts it well:
As Mueller’s report demonstrates, the willingness of his subordinates to be insubordinate has generally served Trump well, because his own judgement is often so shockingly bad that almost anyone else’s judgment (including that of some very shady characters) would be better. That willingness to ignore or contradict the president seems to have averted some criminal acts that might have endangered his presidency. And it has likely saved us from other dark fates.
That may not be sufficient grounds for impeachment. But it is more than sufficient grounds for a primary challenge.

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*Although some misguided souls did vote for him in the belief that at least he was not as crooked as Hillary.
**This is assuming, of course, that Trump doesn't make a serious attempt to strip 20 million people of their health insurance again, in which case the campaign ads write themselves.

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