Musk and DOGE -- How Will It End?

 

Look, Elon Musk's "move fast and break things" approach can only continue so long.  It only continued so long at Twitter, and it will only continue so long in the government.  At Twitter, the whole plan was to do mass firings and then hire back anyone who turned out to be essential.  In government, that approach is turning out to have its drawbacks when the fired essential workers turn out to include, say, ones who safeguarded our nuclear arsenal.    

So eventually this will end.  How?  I have no idea.  But I can offer some suggestions.

Everything completely and irretrievably breaks down

Yes, it does look like this sometimes, but I don't think it will happen this way.  The Muskrats have backtracked at least on occasion.  And Musk is not as exempt from public pressure as it may appear.  So while there will no doubt be irreparable damage, I think it will stop short of complete and total breakdown.

The Muskrats learn some lessons in government and humility

I know this one seems decidedly unlikely.  Elon Musk is never going to admit he was wrong about anything.  But Elon Musk is not acting alone, nor can a mere six men manage so extensive a takeover.  Wikipedia has named 47 employees.  There are also collaborators inside the agencies -- not many, but at the highest levels.  It is not so far-fetched that at least some of these may learn that government is a lot more important and more difficult to  manage than they thought and act accordingly.  Or be coopted by the system, depending on how you look at it.

DOGE declares victory and pulls out

Already DOGE is set to expire on July 4, 2026.  If public outrage gets too strong, one option is certainly to declare mission accomplished and return to the private sector.  Everyone else will be left picking up the pieces -- deciding what can be salvaged, what is irretrievable, and what really wasn't worth keeping.  The Muskrats will return to the private sector with terrifying amounts of data exfiltrated from the government, and probably any number of backdoor hacks into the system and do who-knows-what with it.  This will look like defeat for DOGE (or victory for the rest of us) in the short run, but can be really scary in the long run.

DOGE declares victory and digs in

DOGE will announce that they have achieved their savings.  Each government will have a DOGE employee or a DOGE team breathing down its neck, managing its computer system, cancelling projects, and firing employees at will.  This will all be completely illegal, but maybe Congress will take actions to legalize it retroactively.  I can see at least two ways this shakes out.  One is as stated above -- DOGE learns something about government and becomes part of the "system."  The other one is truly terrifying.

DOGE learns enough about government to take it over

DOGE establishes its own dictatorship over the entire US government.  It fires any employee who displeases it and deletes their computer access.  It cuts off money to any individual or organization that displeases it.  Elections cease to matter because DOGE controls all.  Democrats could win control of Congress in 2026 and arrive, only to find that they are shut off from the actual workings of government, and DOGE completely ignores any laws they pass.  A Democrat could be elected President in 2028 and arrive at the White House, only to find that the White House has been locked out of the government computer system and DOGE is running everything, completely ignoring the White House.  The actual Deep State that right wingers so fear will have been accomplished -- and right wingers will love it because they control it.  This is REALLY scary.  I have no idea how likely it is.

Quiet Trump/Musk split

People on our side have been pushing for this, but so far it shows no sign of happening.  I suspect two factors are working against this.  One is that Trump seems to be intimidated by bigger authoritarians than he is.  He is submissive toward Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong-un.  A similar dynamic appears to be underway with Musk.  The other factor works the other way.  Musk has the money and the tech, but Trump has the law and the guns.  If push comes to shove, law guns, and public outrage will defeat Musk and his money and tech.  Presumably Musk knows this and is wary of going to far.  Nonetheless, in case of a Trump/Musk split, it seems most likely that they will attempt to conceal the split.  If Musk declares victory and goes home, it may very well not be altogether voluntary.

Open Trump/Musk split

As discussed above, the forces of mutually assured destruction make this unlikely.  However, it is not impossible that Trump will tell Musk "You're fired."  That carries all the danger of Musk taking home all the information he has gained and doing who-knows-what with it.  The only way I could see to do such a thing would be to arrest Musk and all his minions.  I am sure there is a very long list of criminal charges that can be brought.  I think we can safely rule this out.  If the Muskrats face criminal charges, they will undoubtedly view it as betrayal -- and talk.  They will reveal just how complicit Trump really is in all their crimes.  That alone would deter such a course of action.  Of course, I can still have my fantasies about this, but they lead in a disturbing direction.  A Trump-Musk split would be fun to watch, but in the long run one of them would win.  Scary thought!  And much as I can relish the thought of the Trump Administration using the Department of Justice to bring down the world's richest man, as scary thought follows.  If Trump does bring down the world's richest man, what can he do to any of us?