Donald Trump Isn't Incoherent, Just Delusional

So, speaking as one who follows a lot of anti-Trump accounts, a frequent comment is that Trump is totally incoherent.

I don't agree. Yes, he tends to ramble. Trump has always tended to ramble, so that is nothing new. And it is a mistake to overstate Trump's incoherence. If you follow closely, it is not too difficult to discern what Trump is saying.

In fact, Trump opponents should keep the Biden debate in mind. Not only was it Biden who sounded completely incoherent in the debate, but Trump proved that he still has enough discipline to sound reasonably sane. That is a suggestion that is nutty rantings are largely an act put on for the Party faithful who like them, that he is able to turn off when they are not welcome.

The problem is not Trump's rambling style -- it is still possible to follow his train of thought. Nor his seeming nuttiness. He can turn that on and off as called for.

The real problem is the content of Trump's speeches. Namely he appears to sincerely believe things that have no basis in reality. We are in danger of electing a completely delusional President. Let's look at some examples.

Hannibal Lector

Yes, it is weird to keep talking about, "The late, great Hannibal Lector." However, his meaning is clear enough. When Trump raises Hannibal Lector, it is always in the context of illegal immigration. He says that other countries are emptying their prisons and mental institutions and insane asylums on the US. He then says that an insane asylum is a mental institution on steroids, the sort of place that held Hannibal Lector.* The point is clear enough. Trump is claiming that hoards of Hannibal Lectors are being unleashed on the US.

None of this has any basis whatever in reality. Yes, there are more people coming into this country than we can process and we really do need better border control. There is room to debate how many people we should admit in an orderly fashion, but then need to get control and make admission orderly is clear. But there is no evidence whatever that other countries are emptying their prisons and mental institutions on us, or that crime is reaching unprecedented heights in the US (it isn't) even as it falls everywhere else. And the suggestion that there are hoard and hoards of people as violent and dangerous as Hannibal Lector pouring across our border is just plain nuts.

Sharks and Electrocution



Go ahead and listen to his rant on sharks. Yes, it wanders some, but the point is clear enough. Trump is saying that government is forcing the replacement of gasoline boats with electric boats, and that electric boats are impractical because they will sink under the weight of the battery and the boat owner will have a choice between electrocution and being eaten by sharks!

Of course, this has no basis in fact. Gas boats are still being manufactured. Electric boats exist. They have actually been around since the 1880's. Serious comparisons exist between electric and gas boats. The general consensus -- electric boats are quieter, cleaner, and lower maintenance. Gas boats are more powerful. Most consumers opt for power. Nor is there much danger of electrocution unless you are between the terminals. In short, Trump's rant is rambling but comprehensible. It also has no basis in reality.

My suggestion -- electric boat owners should take Kamala for a cruise and Trump to join them. He will either have to accept and be shown up as a liar or decline and be shown up as a coward.

Child Care

Trump's opponents are having fun with his "jumbled' answer, but, again, the meaning is clear:  

But when you talk about those numbers compared to the kind of numbers that I’m talking about by taxing foreign nations at levels that they’re not used to, but they’ll get used to it very quickly – and it’s not going to stop them from doing business with us but they’ll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. Those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers that we’re talking about, including child care. That – it’s going to take care – we’re going to have – I – I look forward to having no deficits within a fairly short period of time, coupled with the reductions that I told you about on waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country. Because I have to say with child care – I want to stay with child care – but those numbers are small relative to the kind of economic numbers that I’m talking about, including growth, but growth also headed up by what the plan is that I just – that I just told you about.

In other words, he thinks that his tariffs will generate so much revenue that they will easily pay for any childcare shortages.  Once again, this is completely divorced from reality.  First of all, Trump refuses to understand that a tariff is simply an import tax which raises the prices of imports and therefore pinches people's budgets.  Nor are they the cash cow that Trump believes.  Kevin Drum has an estimate that if Trump puts a 20% tax on all imports and imports to not shrink as a result net revenues would be about $600 billion -- a third of our current deficit.

Of course, the goal of these tariffs is to reduce imports.  Trump appears to believe that if we reduce imports enough, it would spur enough growth to pay for everything and possibly even to create a post-scarcity economy.  Needless to say, that is completely insane.

Look, the debate is coming up on Tuesday.  Trump is pulling ahead.  I hope Harris is able to show Trump up for just how seriously out of touch with reality he is.  I hope his behavior drives the message home to voters just how dangerous he is.

But the fact is, Trump is a better debater than we like to think.  There are advantages to a debater who is completely untethered by the facts.

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*Many Trump opponents have suggested that he is confusing political asylum with an insane asylum. I have no idea on that one.