Wednesday, April 24, 2024

And a Note on the Gaza War

 

It is very clear that there will not be a truce in the Gaza war, and that neither side is interested in anything less than total victory.

Israel has made clear that any truce will merely be a pause to allow humanitarian supplies in and to allow civilians to leave Rafah before it moves in and finishes Hamas off once and for all.  Regardless of what one thinks of Hamas, one can hardly expect them to agree to such a proposal!

As for Hamas, it has made clear that it considers Israel withdrawing from Gaza and turning the strip back over to Hamas as a precondition for releasing any hostages.  Israel, very understandably, does not trust Hamas to keep its word.

In effect, each side has given the other what has been known as an "If you don't drop dead, I'll kill you," ultimatum.  Unsurprisingly, such ultimatums are never accepted.  

My guess is that there will be no clear, definitive end to this war.  It will gradually wind down to an occupation and manageable insurgency. Eventually -- probably years from now -- Israel will grow tired and withdraw.  But insurgencies can continue for a long time, and are invariably ugly.

One tiny glimmer of hope. Although I can't find the link, there was a rumor that the Hamas leadership was looking for a country that would accept them in exile.  To date, they had not found one.

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