What Was Hamas Thinking?

 

Look.  Clearly I will never be able to get into the head of a twisted death cult like Hamas, and it would be a mistake to expect them to be rational as we understand rationality.  But it does seem a safe assumption that the current war is not what Hamas had in mind.  Hamas may not be rational as you or I understand rationality, but I do expect them to be at least rational enough not to start a war unless they seem some possibility of winning.  And they must have understood that their October 7 attack necessarily meant war.

One suggestion has been that Hamas had great confidence in its underground tunnels and expected to wear the Israelis down in tunnel warfare until they gave up and left.  And, indeed, it is entirely possible, not to say probable, that the Israelis will end up deciding that they will never be able to root out Hamas and are facing an endless insurgency and withdraw, leaving devastation behind.  But it is hard to see the point there.  Given the choice between being invaded, having your country laid to waste, and wearing down the invaders until they give up and leave versus not being invaded in the first place, not being invaded in the first place seems like very much the better option, even for Hamas.

A more likely explanation is that Hamas engaged in maximally provocative acts in order to provoke an Israeli over-reaction in hopes of setting off a wider war and (presumably) forcing other countries to come to their rescue and (presumably) destroy Israel while they were at it.  If that was the plan, the result is mixed.  Hezbollah has bombarded northern Israel, but without having any real effect on the war in Gaza. The Houthis are blocking shipping through the Red Sea.  But other than that, most Arab governments seem quite happy to see Hamas destroyed.  

And, in fact, thinking things through a little further, it increasingly appears that Hamas did not think things through.  If the Arab powers were to come to Hamas' rescue, who would that be?  Certainly not Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not unlike Hamas. It is a formidable defensive force, with the ability to wear down Israeli invaders until they give up and leave, but, like Hamas, it has no real offensive capacity.  Like Hamas, it can fire rockets and commit acts of terror and mayhem, but it has no power to seize and hold territory, or to conquer and subjugate. 

Furthermore, as a matter of basic geography, the only country with the proximity to come to Hamas's rescue is Egypt, a longstanding enemy of Hamas.  Jordan is the next best alternative -- it has not border with Gaza, but might come to the rescue if it could cut across Israel, something it shows neither the desire nor the capacity to do.  Syria might be willing to do such a thing, but is either mired in civil war or still recovering from civil war.  Iran is an ally, but is would have to cut through Iraq, Syria, and Israel to come to Hamas' rescue. 

As I understand it, Hamas also did itself no favors by not consulting with any of its allies in advance, and thereby sought to commit them to a larger war without asking first.  Hamas's allies were not amused.

Straits of Tiran

Houthi attacks on shipping are actually interesting.  It is true that in 1956 and again in 1967, Egypt sought to close the Straits of Tiran to Israel, cutting off Israel's sole port in the Red Sea.  In both cases, Israel saw that as an existential threat and went to war with Egypt (highly successfully, both times).  This time, the Houthis are cutting off traffic to the entire Red Sea and Israel appears to be greeting it with a shrug. Of course, the effect is to cut off traffic to the Suez Canal and force it around the African continent.  Presumably this means a significant loss of revenue for Egypt.  Maybe it is intended as a form of pressure on Egypt to come to the aid of Hamas.

More plausibly, Hamas' provocation of Israel to attack and actions to maximize civilian damage may have been intended to incite popular uprising throughout Arab countries and force them to come to Hamas' aid.  So far that has not happened, but Hamas may be hoping that it will if the war continues for long enough.  Certainly that would account for Hamas' insistence on utterly unrealistic conditions to any truce during negotiations ahead of Ramadan.  Ramadan seemed like the best opportunity to set up such a revolt, but so far it has not happened.  Personally, that remains my biggest fear.

The alternate explanation I have heard is that Hamas does not understand the nature of Israel. Hamas regards Israel as a settler-colonial state and hopes that if they keep up the pressure, they can induce Israel to give up and go home, just as the French eventually gave up and went home in Algeria.  If that is Hamas' believe, then they will be disappointed.  The Israelis are home.  They have nowhere to go.